Welcome to Narrowing the Field - The Blog (or NTF for short). NTF uses the Dosage Method and Extended Trends Analysis to provide the modern punter with an innovative weapon to go to war with in their continuing battle against the bookie. Please feel free to search the site and leave your comments and questions, input from NTF readers is always welcomed.

Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Sign up to the NTF 2011/12 National Hunt service TODAY!

Doors our now open for the 2011/12 NTF National Hunt Service!

Join NOW before the doors close on Friday 21-10-11!

More details can be found on the following link - 

====>>>>Join NTF Today<<<<====

====>>>>Join NTF Today<<<<====

Places are rapidly filling up so don't hesitate - JOIN TODAY!
Ben (NTF)

Tuesday, 28 June 2011

NTF on the move........

Hi everyone

Just a quick note to let you all know that I'm currently in the process of moving from blog to web-site! The Blog is likely to be quiet for a while as I'm designing the web-site myself (potentially asking for trouble but I like a challenge!) so don't fret and think I have deserted you all.

There is no launch date at the minute for the web-site but I will keep you all informed when the time approaches. 

If there are any previous NTF features that you have enjoyed and would like to see included on the web-site then please either leave a comment below or drop me an email. I obviously have a strong idea of how the web-site will look and it will operate but I'm always open to ideas and suggestions from the people that make it all worthwhile; the NTF readership.

I will still be around on twitter (@Narrowthefield) and those of you that are on the flat subscription list will obviously still be receiving regular updates from myself, it's only this here blog that will be a tad quiet for a little while.

Many thanks to every single one of you that has taken the time to read the NTF Blog and I look forward to seeing you all on the shiny new NTF website!

Adios for now.....

Ben (NTF)

Wednesday, 22 June 2011

Drive Cheve to the Levy(?).....

I'm firmly of the opinion that every handicapper has a ceiling to their abilities - they have a rating they can't (or at best struggle) to win above but can certainly win when on a mark below that ceiling. 

There is one such horse currently in training that fits this ethos perfectly (well there are obviously a number of horses but this one stood out at me at Ascot last week) and that is the Richard Price trained CHEVETON. Not only does this horse have a definable ceiling to his talents he also needs Good or slower underfoot conditions to be seen at his best. The softening ground came in for him last week and he was backed in from around 33s in the morning to an SP of 18/1. However, punters overlooked 2 vital facts about this horse - 

1) He was running from an OR of 96. His previous highest winning mark on turf had been 91 (he has won off 92 but 5lb claimer Dale Swift technically reduced that to 87)

Cheveton record when running off a mark above 91 - 5-2-0-5-2-3-0-3-0-5-0-2-0-7-0-0-4-8-0

Cheveton record when running off a mark of 91 or below - 3-2-1-1-1-1-1-8-3-7-6-5-2-1-1

Clear indications that this horse has a ratings ceiling that he struggles to win above.

2) He was running in a class 2 race worth 62k to the winner

Yes he had won at class 2 level before but not in anything as competitive as a 62k Royal Ascot race. The highest value race the gelding had won was a £18500 race at Haydock.  

His form figures in races worth 20k or more read - 5-2-0-0-0-2-0-0-3-6-4-0-0-0

Patchy at best I would say.

So although the 7yo had underfoot conditions to suit last week there were a couple of other major factors that were against the horse.

Cheveton is actually one of those horses that shows strong preferences as to what are his optimum racing conditions. If we filter his form to the following - 

Good or softer ground - Class 2 level or less - Race worth 20k or less - OR 91 or less - Turf - Hcp 

We get the following form figures - 1-1-2-5-7-0-1-1-1-1-1-2-3

All 7 career wins are encompassed within this filter and these are the circumstances I would be looking to back the Richard Price runner.

He has a mark he can win from - there are clear indicators to his ground preferences - he has struggled to win in the competitive big money handicaps - he is a solid class 2 level or below performer

If everything else is in his favour I would not rule him out running a big race (without possibly winning) in a 20k+ race but these type of races are clearly not ideal for him.

*Notes - He has won from a mark of 96 on the AW but AW form does not always translate to the turf and certainly looks to be the case for Cheveton.

His OR of 91 or below does include when a claimer has reduced his burden. For example his last victory was from a mark of 92 but was reduced by a 5lb claimer to 87. So as long as a claimer brings the mark down I would be interested.

There is a lot to be said for getting to know the preferences of any handicapper and if you play your cards right and put in the work you will reap the rewards in the long term.

Now I'm away to figure out how many connotations the blog post title has.....

but the Levy was dry.......

the Levee holds water to soften the ground......

p.s. Proform software makes finding this info a doddle! Take a look for yourselves - http://www.proformracing.co.uk/

Ben (NTF)

Friday, 10 June 2011

NTF Royal Ascot Guide

Can he extent his unbeaten run?

Five days of high octane racing with nearly 4 million in prize money and top hats as far as the eye can see......that can only mean one thing - ROYAL ASCOT!

This year we have -

  • The FRANKEL-MONSTER attempting to stretch his unbeaten dominance to 7 in the St James's Palace Stakes
  • SO YOU THINK stepping up his UK assault in the Prince of Wales's Stakes
  • Wonder mare GOLDIKOVA v CANFORD CLIFFS (with CAPE BLANCO thrown in for good measure)
  • FAME AND GLORY attempting to fill the void left by the great YEATS

...and much much more over 5 days chocked full of Group race after Group race.

Here at NTF HQ I've been digging deep into the trends and stats for the Royal meeting and as well as the exclusive race trends that I provide for my flat subscribers I have also created a comprehensive 31 page Trainer and Jockey guide that pinpoints who's hot and who's not when it comes to the Royal meeting.

This guide examines 18 of the top trainers and 14 of the finest jockeys and identifies exactly where their strengths and weaknesses exist.

You will discover important facts such as - 

  • Which jockey has ridden for 24 yards out with his stable jockey commitments and has only managed to win on ONE of those rides
  • Which jockey has form figures of 1-1-4-2 when riding in 30 runner fields 
  • The jockey that has been beaten on all 26 of his rides in fields of 16 runners or more
  • Which top yard has a 0/29 record with their runners that finished 6th or worst on their final start before Royal Ascot
  • The yard that has form figures of  - 1-2-0-8-1-1-0-0-0-1-2-0-2 - with their 2 and 3yo's over 8f or less that finished in the top 3 last time out
  • The trainer that has sent 46 consecutive losers to the track in the last 3 seasons

I had decided to keep all flat guides locked down and exclusive to my subscribers but I have received a few emails in recent days asking if I was doing anything for the Royal meeting. With that in mind this 31 page Trainer and Jockey guide will be available to non-subscribers direct from the Blog.

Simply click on the 'BUY NOW' Paypal button that is located at the top right of the Blog and follow the simple instructions. Once you have completed the Paypal process please remember to not close the Paypal window as the link needed to download the guide will be made available on the final screen.

This NTF guide will be available until Monday and is accessible to non-subscribers of the flat service for £6.

If you are struggling with your Royal Ascot analysis and decision making then this could be the best £6 you spend all summer!

*Note - This is NOT an NTF race analysis guide. This guide purely looks at trainer and jockey angles. 

If you are on the NTF flat subscription list you DO NOT need to purchase this guide as you already have access to it in the members area.

Trending (#twitterhorse) update

I'm pleased to report our boy is ticking along nicely and word is he may be making his debut in mid-July. Fingers firmly crossed..........

Ben (NTF)