The Big NTF Festive Review - Part II

*Picture - How the NTF crew felt after our Xmas trip home!!

Sunday the 27th or 'The day after Boxing Day' to give its proper name was a complete write off for me as far as race viewing and punting was concerned. The NTF crew spend the morning and early afternoon fitting in the last of the family visits and then spend the next 4 hours travelling home. At this point I already had the feeling that Xmas had 'left its mark' on the 4 of us and if Xmas had been a horserace I would have been laying us for every penny I had next time out!!

There were 3 races analysed in 'Narrowing the Field' and they all produced the goods as far as the Dosage trends were concerned (I could have guessed that would happen when there wasn't even a slim chance I would get to see them!!).

Let's start part II of the festive review with the 2nd day's action from Kempton Park -

Kempton

Wayward Lad Novices' Chase

RIVERSIDE THEATRE (6-2-8-4-0 (20) / 1.50 / 0.50) put in a safe, if not exuberant, round of jumping and did all he had to do to secure a comfortable 12L victory. His Dosage Figures snuck in at the top end of the trends and it would have been disappointing had he not won here. His Dosage Figures are a similar story for the Arkle Chase in March as they again sneak in at the top end of the trends. 12-1 for the Arkle seems fair although his wins have all come on flat tracks and we are guessing as to whether the Henderson horse will cope with Cheltenham's undulations.

EL DANCER (2-0-8-6-0 (16) / 0.60 / -0.13) had a tough task on his hands as no horse in the past 11 runnings had won with a negative CD rating. Rated the same as the winner over hurdles (145) it remains to be seen whether he can reach the same standard over fences, it may be best to wait for the spring time with the 5yo before backing him with some hard cash..

Desert Orchid Chase (Not analysed in Narrowing the Field)

PETIT ROBIN (0-0-5-1-0 (6) / 0.71 / -0.17) was always travelling well and secured victory with a better leap at the last than his nearest challenger WELL CHIEF. He failed to win after his debut success last season so it will be interesting to see if he can progress this season. He is now 10-1 in places for Champion Chase glory although we must remember he has met with defeat on both his previous visits to Prestbury Park.

WELL CHIEF (6-1-9-2-0 (18) 1.77 / 0.61) ran another sound race but I think his days at the top are numbered. There are too many younger horses out there that are fresher and have plenty of improvement still in them, at almost 11 years of age the Pipe stable star can only be playing for the places at best.

CRACK AWAY JACK (4-1-13-1-1 (20) / 1.35 / 0.30) put in a very competent display in 4th place in only his 3rd start over fences. The 14-1 for the Arkle about the Emma Lavelle trained 5yo looks pretty tempting. The level of form shown here is potentially better than that of RIVERSIDE THEATRE in the Novice Chase earlier on in the card as he was only beaten 11L by a horse that is as short as 10-1 for the Queen Mum Champion Chase. He will have learned a lot more against this lot than he will have learned if he had run in the Novice Chase. His Dosage Figures are perfect for that of a potential Arkle winner.

3 Mile Handicap Chase (Not analysed in Narrowing the Field)

Perhaps the most impressive performance of the day came from FORTIFICATION (8-6-16-2-0 (32) / 2.20 / 0.63) in the 3 mile handicap chase. He is now 4/4 over fences and beat some above average types from some of the bigger yards in this class 2 chase. The manor in which he won suggests the Nigel Hawke trained gelding still has a bit more in the locker although the handicapper is likely to hammer him for this victory. He is one to look out for when he appears next.

LEOPARDSTOWN

Future Champions Novices' Hurdle

HOLLO LADIES (3-0-9-4-0 (16) / 0.88 / 0.13) was a surprise winner as far as the betting market was concerned, winning at 20-1, but as far as the Dosage figures go his stats were spot on.

Runner-up SALUDOS (3-2-15-0-0 (20) / 1.67 / 0.40) was also un-fancied in the betting ring a 12-1 but this speedy front runner is starting to show some decent form and could easily be one to keep on the right side of.

11/8 Favourite SOME PRESENT (0-2-2-4-2 (10) / 0.43 / -0.60) was a major disappointment, however, his Dosage figures were some way off what is required to win this contest and he never really looked happy at any stage of the race. He is starting to become one of those horses that looses more than he wins and connections may want to start thinking about stepping him up in distance; he does have plenty stamina in his pedigree.

Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase

GOLDEN SILVER (1-2-10-3-0 (16) / 1.00 / 0.06) knuckled down to win this Grade 1 in determined style. His Dosage Figures were correct for this race and looking at his record suggests that 2m1f may be his limit for now; I wouldn't be too keen to back him over any further at this stage.

TRANQUIL SEA (2-0-8-4-0 (14) / 0.75 / 0.00) lost nothing in defeat here and this run suggests he is still on an upward curve. His Dosage figures were also within the correct ranges for this Grade 1 but his record suggests that racing over further may see him at his best. He looks a very exciting horse for this seasons Ryanair Chase; his Dosage Figures are perfect for the mid-distance championship race and the 7-1 available is starting to look rather appealing.

SCOTS IRISH (1-4-5-2-0 (12) / 1.67 / 0.33) didn't quite have the Dosage figures for this race but he is still a horse to keep an eye on. He ended last season with a 5th in the Queen Mother, a 4th in the Melling Chase and a 3rd in Guinness Gold Cup, suggesting he is quite adaptable with regards to distance. He does seem to be a horse that excels when he is faced with a large number of opponents as all his wins have come when racing in double figured fields. There are certainly races out there for the 8yo.

NTF bets placed

NONE! :-( Bloody Xmas!!

I will try and fit in Part III of 'The Big NTF Festive Review' tomorrow.

Good luck with any end of year bets you may be contemplating placing and until later, HAPPY PUNTING!

Ben

The Big NTF Festive Review - Part I

*Picture - Now Xmas is over Santa can get down to some serious Cheltenham form study!!

Its been a busy old time for NTF over the festive period with 16 races analysed in the book over a 4 day period (3 due to be run today). I must confess I struggled to fit them all in due to (numerous) family commitments and I only had a financial interest in a small number of them, however, I have now managed to view all the races that were of interest (god bless the internet!) and its now time to unleash Part I of 'The Big NTF Festive Review'.

Starting with the action from Boxing Day -

Kempton

Feltham Novices' Chase

LONG RUN (1-0-4-3-0 (8) / 0.50 / -0.13) came over from France with a big reputation and boy did he not let us down. Although hitting almost EVERY fence along the way he never looked like he was ever out of cruise control. This will have been a big education for the 4yo and hopefully it will have taught him that the British fences are quite a bit different to the French fences!! Undoubtedly he will have to improve his fencing technique to progress further but there is a huge engine in there and his Dosage Figures suggest the RSA Chase is a realistic aim. He is an exciting prospect.

TAZBAR (1-1-6-0-2 (10) / 1.00 / -0.10) was well clear in second although had no chance with the runaway winner. The Keith Reveley 7yo is another who fits the RSA Dosage trends but I have a feeling he may fall someway short of the best over fences.

Christmas Hurdle

Once again GO NATIVE (0-0-2-4-10 (16) / 0.07 / -1.50) chewed up and spat out the Dosage trends of yet another Grade 1 Hurdle. His win was not without drama, however. Cruising round in his held up position the 6yo moved effortlessly into a challenging position before quickly shooting into a 2 length lead, then BOOM! he turns into Harchibald! With 100 yards to go the horse decides he has done enough and chooses to partake in a touch of Xmas idling! Luckily jockey Davie Condon managed to keep the Noel Meade horse up to his task to win by a short head.

I know GO NATIVE has Cheltenham winning form but if he does the same in the Champion Hurdle then there are likely to be a couple snapping at his heels looking to chin him on the line! I am still not tempted to back this one for Cheltenham glory.

STARLUCK (4-8-8-5-1 (26) / 1.60 / 0.35) ran a solid race in 2nd and was unlucky not to get up on the line to snatch victory. He is becoming a difficult horse to access and although his Dosage figures are almost spot on for the Champion I still have my reservations. As I have mentioned before the places may be the best bet for the Alan Fleming trained 4yo.

BINOCULAR (6-0-8-2-0 (16) / 1.67 / 0.63) is starting to become disappointing. This race should have been ideal for last season's Champion Hurdle 3rd but for the second race in succession he failed to live up to his lofty reputation. The mistake he made 3 out will not have helped his cause, however, the front 2 always looked to have him covered in any case.

Is he perhaps not as good as first considered? Its hard to say at this stage but he is not looking like the likely Champion Hurdler at this moment in time.

King George

What more can be said of KAUTO STAR (2-2-6-10-2 (22) / 0.47 / -0.36) that hasn't already been said? This, the geldings' FOURTH King George victory, was an outstanding fencing display from a horse still at the peak of his powers. He never looked like he wouldn't win here and his jumping was foot perfect. Anyone who tries to crab this form needs their head read! A 36 length victory is the perfect tune up for Kauto V Denman Part III.

MADISON DU BERLAIS (0-0-3-1-0 (4) / 0.60 / -0.25) ran a very odd race. He looked to be going nowhere 4 out but found a second wind from somewhere to snatch second spot. His best chance of a big race success will come at Aintree in the spring when he goes for a repeat victory in the Betfair Chase, I can't see many races suiting him between now and then.

BARBERS SHOP (2-0-8-9-3 (22) / 0.38 / -0.50) ran a blinder in third and looked to be the only horse 3 out that could conceivably give Kauto Star a race. Ultimately he paid the price for going after the winner and finished a very tired 3rd, however, this was a step up on his Hennessey 4th to Denman. It is unlikely he has the ability to beat the big 2 but connections can take heart from this run and there are sure to be races out there for the Saddler's Hall gelding. The Irish Hennessey would not be out with his Dosage capabilities.

Remember I highlighted this horse in my 16-12-09 blog post at 20-1, click here. 

IMPERIAL COMMANDER (3-2-4-2-1 (12) / 1.40 / 0.33) ruined any chance he may have had with a horrible blunder at the 2nd fence. This was not the only mistake he made and connections should seriously only consider races on left handed tracks from now on. Dosage suggested that this 3 mile race was not suitable for the 8yo and again connections should concentrate their efforts on the mid-distance races for the remainder of the season.


LEOPARDSTOWN

Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle

CARLITO BRIGANTE (6-3-9-0-0 (18) / 3.00 / 0.83) sprung a 20-1 shock in this juvenile race which was a Grade 2 in name only. This was a poor renewal of this juvenile hurdle and I would be surprised if any stars appear from this renewal. The winner was a touch speed heavy based on the previous trends for this race, however, he was more suited to the race than the 2nd placed favourite.

ALAIVAN (1-2-5-4-8 (20) / 0.38 / -0.80) was carrying far too much stamina for a race of this nature and if I had been at NTF HQ he would have been a confident lay. The Kalanisi gelding also had the disadvantage of being a front-runner; only 1/13 had won this race from the front. In time a step up in trip would seem the geldings' best option.

Grade 1 Novices' Chase

SIZING EUROPE (2-2-6-0-0 (10) 2.33 / 0.60) made it 4/4 over fences and in the process blew some strong Dosage trends out of the water. In winning this he became the fastest Dosage winner since Native Upmanship in 1999. This was not his most impressive performance and had CAPTAIN CEE BEE not departed at the last there is no guarantee the Henry De Bromhead runner would have kept his unbeaten chasing record.

CAPTAIN CEE BEE (4-1-8-1-0 (14) / 1.80 / 0.57) can be deemed an unlucky loser here. Travelling well throughout he came to challenge the eventual winner at the last before tipping up when looking like he would at the very least take a hand in the finish.

OSANA (0-0-8-0-0 (8) / 1.00 / 0.00) put in another solid display but was no match for the winner here. I still think this horse can have a say in the Arkle although his front running tendencies do play against him; 0 of the last 15 winners won the Arkle from the front.

NTF bets placed 

Barbers Shop (King George) - 20-1 EW ante-post - 3rd

Imperial Commander (King George) - Place Lay - 5th 

I was planning more bets/lays but being away from HQ made it very difficult. Judging by the success of my only 2 bets I should maybe employ this tactic more often!?! 

I will be back again tomorrow with Part II of 'The Big NTF Festive Review'.

Ben

Can COE cure a dose of the MAN FLU?!?

*Picture - MAN FLU! Potentially more lethal than swine flu!

Things are still a bit Xmas-ey hectic here at NTF HQ. Man Flu and exhaustion are rife and even the 'hounds are struggling to raise their weary heads!! A day of sofa, laptop, pills, hot drinks and some good old Welsh National action (thankfully!) for me while Mrs NTF goes and looks at some new bathrooms (sounds expensive to me!!).

There are 5 races analysed in the book today but apart from the Welsh National I have not really looked at them with too much detail. Never the less here are my thoughts on what should be a cracking days racing -

CHEPSTOW

2.10 Welsh National

I'll be sticking with COE (0-1-3-4-2 (10) / 0.33 / -0.70) as my main selection. 12/14-1 is a decent EW price and with the ground officially heavy he should relish todays challenge.

Although in my pre-Xmas preview of the race I did highlight Gone To Lunch's chances I would have preferred soft rather than heavy for the 9yo. I will see how the 1st couple of races ride before deciding on this one.

2.45 Juvenile Hurdle

Paul Nicholls has never hidden the fact that he holds SANG BLEU (1-1-4-4-0 (10) / 0.67 / -0.10) in high regard and this looks his race to loose. His Dosage figures are ideal for the race and he could be a very special horse indeed.

There has been some early money for the Nick Williams trained ME VOICI (0-0-9-1-0 (10) / 0.82 / -0.10) and he could be the biggest danger.


LEOPARDSTOWN

1.30 G1 Novices Chase

This looks another decent opportunity for PANDORAMA (3-2-4-0-1 (10) / 2.33 / 0.60). His jumping improved slightly last time out and with more improvement likely he should manage to hold this lot off. 5/4 is a bit skinny for me and its unlikely any NTF funds will be riding on this race.

2.00 G2 Christmas Hurdle

With LIE FORRIT now a non-runner that ends my interest in the race. The front 3 in the market all have a decent chance based on their Dosage Figures.

2.35 Lexus Chase

I'm hoping COOLDINE (0-0-5-3-0 (8) / 0.45 / -0.38) does the business for my Tote 10 To Follow list, however, fitness must be a factor for last seasons RSA Chase winner. If he is fully tuned up then he may well take all the beating. VOY POR USTEDES (1-0-6-1-4 (12) / 0.50 / -0.58) is a horse that I have always thought would be suited by a step up in trip and I fully believe he has the capabilities to land this Grade 1 Chase. The form of the King stable is still a minor worry and there are more than a couple dangers in this race. NOTRE PERE (0-0-3-1-0 (4) / 0.60 / -0.25) should not be written off yet and JONCOL (1-2-7-0-2 (12) / 1.18 / 0.00) is dangerous now he is tackling 3 miles. He disappointed over the distance at the back end of last season but rumors were that the gelding was below the weather on that occasion. The longer distance and slower pace should help VOY POR USTEDES' jumping which of late has been below his normal standard.


Thats it for now, I'm off to sink another Lemsip and watch the racing from under my duvet!!

Good luck however you plan to punt your Xmas cash today.

Ben

Christmas Hurdle - The NTF preview

*Picture - Santa thought he would splash out as his Boxing Day yankee was landed!!!

Before we get stuck into analysing this Grade 1 Hurdle I must first issue a Cheltenham warning! The last horse to win this race and then go on and win the Champion Hurdle was KRIBENSIS, in the 1989/90 season. Plenty of talented individuals have tried and failed since the Sir Micheal Stoute trained grey pulled off this achievement. He is also the ONLY horse to have won The Fighting Fifth Hurdle, the Christmas Hurdle AND The Champion Hurdle in the same season. GO NATIVE has quite a task on his hands if he is to get his hoofs on the £1 million bonus.

A little something to ponder on before you go steaming in to back the winner of the Xmas Hurdle for this seasons Champion Hurdle.

On to the business at hand now and this is a race that in recent years has followed some strong Dosage trends; will it continue along the same lines this year?

Lets take a look at the contenders -


*Seasonal form - Horse - Age - Dosage figures - OR - Current price

5 - BINOCULAR - 5yo - (6-0-8-2-0 (16) / 1.67 / 0.63) - 169 - 5/4

Every horse can have an off day but was that what happened to the 5yo at Newcastle last time out or once again was he unsuited by an undulating track with an uphill finish? Realistically, there should be no excuses this time around. Kempton's sharp-flat layout should play right into the geldings hands and the stable could hardly have a better record at the track in the month of December; their hurdlers have an impressive 27% strike-rate giving backers a mammoth £78.08 level stakes profit. His Dosage figures only add to his appeal and I can see him running a huge race and in the process giving the Champion Hurdle market another massive shake-up.
Dosage Rating - 5/5


2 - CAPE TRIBULATION - 5yo - (3-3-13-2-13 (34) / 0.58 / -0.56) - 145 - 33/1

A big no no on the Dosage stats and perhaps a surprise inclusion for this 2 miler. Connections have maybe been spurred on by the horses proximity to ZAYNAR last time out, however, that was over 5 furlongs further and surely they can only be hoping to snatch some place prize money at best here.
Dosage Rating - 1/5

**When I previewed this race last night the following horses were both still engaged to run, however, both were withdrawn at today's final declaration stage.

1-2 - CELESTIAL HALO - 5yo - (3-0-16-4-5 (28) / 0.65 / -0.29) - 168 **NON - RUNNER**
I cannot see the tight turns of Kempton park suiting last years Champion Hurdle runner-up. His 5 career wins have all come on galloping tracks and there must be a firm suspicion that this will not be enough of a test for the 5yo. It is a slight surprise to even see the Nicholls horse among the Xmas Hurdle entries as his last run was only 14 days ago and you would think that connections do not want to bottom him out to early in the season. His Dosage figures give him another hurdle to overcome and there must be better opportunities out there for him.
Dosage Rating - 1/5

1-1-1 - DONNAS PALM - 5yo - (4-1-5-0-2 (12) / 1.67 / 0.42) - 159 **NON-RUNNER**

Entered at Leopardstown and that must be the first preference.

Has improved leaps and bounds this term but whether he is a true Grade 1 performer remains to be seen. Should he come here instead of Leopardstown he is likely to find this calibre of opposition an entirely different kettle of fish.
Dosage Rating - 5/5



1-2-1 - GO NATIVE - 6yo - (0-0-2-4-10 (16) / 0.07 / -1.50) - 164 - 15/8

The Noel Meade trained gelding is an interesting, yet frustrating individual. He is starting to become a bit of a thorn in the side of the Dosage Ratings and has already shown total disregard for the Dosage trends of two Grade 1 hurdle races; last seasons Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham and this seasons Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. If he were to win this Grade 1 then he has to go down as a very serious horse indeed. Once again his Dosage figures give him little chance here but will he pay any notice? In my opinion the price is a bit short for a horse that potentially will not be suited by the track.
Dosage Rating - 0/5


4-3-5 - KING'S REVENGE - 6yo - (7-4-9-1-1 (22) / 2.38 / 0.68) - 119 - 200/1

The price tells you all you need to know about the 6yo. He has so much to make up based on official ratings that I would be surprised if he is finished by the time the next race starts. In it to try and snatch some prize money and with only 7 runners who can really blame connections.
Dosage Rating - 2/5

1-1-1 - PEPE SIMO - 5yo - (3-1-10-0-2 (16) / 1.29 / 0.19) - 140 - 11/1

One can only assume he is in here to gain some top level experience? He has won his 3 starts in Novice company with relative ease but unless connections think they have a monster on their hands I would be surprised if he can mix it here. His Dosage figures put him in the mix but his inexperience must count against him.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

1-2 - STARLUCK - 4yo - (4-8-8-5-1 (26) / 1.60 / 0.35) - 149 - 6/1

A race that has always been thought ideal for the Alan Fleming trained 4yo. The gelding has a very impressive 11 length course and distance victory on his CV from last seasons meeting and if the ground stays good to soft or better then there is no reason he can't attempt to add to that. He has been beaten in his previous 2 Grade 1 efforts and he does have a bit to find on official figures, however, he is an improving horse so there is nothing to suggest he can't bridge the gap. One worry, however, is the record of 4 year olds in the race; in the past 10 runnings 12 have lined up and zero have made the winners circle. Can STARLUCK buck the trend? His Dosage figures do suggest that if he is good enough then he has the attributes to win the Christmas Hurdle.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

4-P - STRAW BEAR - 8yo - (5-1-6-4-4 (20) / 0.82 / -0.05) - 150 - 66/1

66/1 may look pretty generous for the 2007 winner, unfortunately, in his current form 66/1 is probably about right. This is a horse that is slowly falling out of love with the game the more he races and I don't see any hint of this Christmas outing rekindling his fire.
Dosage Rating - 4/5


CONCLUSION

This looks ideal for BINOCULAR to get his season back on track. Conditions look ideal and with STRAW BEAR possibly in there to ensure an honest pace this will hopefully be run at a decent clip. The Dosage figures suggest that this is not the race for GO NATIVE and you have to wonder that if he hadn't won the Fighting Fifth would this have been his first choice. STARLUCK may give the selection most to do and PEPE SIMO stands out as the potential fly in the ointment.

I'm afraid that will be the last of my pre-Xmas previews as preparations for the NTF crew's trip home must now take precedence. I would like to wish all NTF readers a very MERRY XMAS and I hope you all have a wonderful time, whatever you may have planned. Drop me a comment or an email if any of you get 'Narrowing the Field' in your Xmas stocking, this is still a bizarre and exciting concept for me!!

I will still be popping up on Twitter and Facebook over the next few days and I will also try my best to reply to any comments that may appear on the blog between now and the 28th (Welsh National Day) when normal service will hopefully resume.

Until later, HAPPY XMAS PUNTING!!

Ben

Welsh National - The NTF Preview

*Picture - Santa still can't figure out how that 1.01 shot got beat?!?

The 3m 5f slog around the challenging Chepstow circuit is an altogether tougher race to solve, however, there are plenty of angles we can use to our advantage for analysis purposes.

I have compiled a list of stats & trends that hopefully will lead us to horses that have a live chance in this Marathon test.

Stats have been sourced from my own records plus The Grand National Blog & Racecaller.com (click on the names to visit the other sites).

• 19/19 OR 125+ - Class is important



• 19/19 1-2 runs in season - You need to be relatively fresh for this



• 19/19 won at 24f + - Proven over at least 3 miles is essential



• 18/19 top 4 LTO - Current form is also essential



• 14/15 won or placed in a CL1 Chase - Top class Chase form is needed



• 13/13 aged 6-9 - The old boys struggle in this demanding National



• 12/12 carried 11-03 or below - Tough race to carry masses of weight in

Dosage trends

• 9/12 had 8 points or more in their DP



• 8/9 had a DI of 1.13 and below



• 8/9 had a CD of 0.25 and below

*For full Dosage stats please buy 'Narrowing the Field - Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing'

Running style

• Only 2 of the last 12 renewals have gone the way of front runners (Edmond being the last in 1999)

There are still 59 runners engaged in this race so I have Cherry picked some of the leading contenders for analysis purposes -

THE FRONT TWO IN THE MARKET

*Season form - Horse - Age - Dosage - Current Weight - Price

7-1 - LE BEAU BAI - 6yo - (1-0-4-3-0 (8) / 0.60 / -0.13) - 10-09 - 6/1

Quickly shot to favouritism when winning a class 2 - 3 mile handicap at the track by 21L last time out. That was the trainer's first chase victory at the track in the month of December from 16 attempts and indeed the 1st time one of his December Chepstow chasers has made the top 3. The one glaring omission from the stats list that he fails to tick is the 'Won or placed in a CL1 Chase' stat; the 6yo has never in fact run in anything above a class 2 in his 5 chase outings. Backers of the French-bred are taking a bit of a punt with regards to how good he may be and 6-1 looks a bit skinny for me. On the Dosage side of things he comfortably fits within the ranges and he shouldn't be struggling for stamina if he does prove to hold the class needed for this.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

2-2 - THE TOTHER ONE - 8yo - (5-1-6-4-0 (16) / 1.29 / 0.44) - 11-04 - 7/1

Two negatives for Paul Nicholls charge; Carrying above 11-03 (only by 1lbs but will be 4lbs if Mon Mome is a non-runner) and his Dosage figures are a touch on the speedy side. I also have my reservations about the proximity of his last race at Cheltenham on 11-12-09; is 17 days enough time to recover from what was essentially a tough race in the Cheltenham mud? I have my reservations. I also have my reservations about the geldings attitude as he is starting to look a tough ride and the rough and tumble of Chepstow on National day may not be his cup of tea. There are enough doubts to pass over this one for now.
Dosage Rating - 2/5

LEADING CONTENDERS

1-1 - BERONI - 7yo - (5-1-9-9-0 (24) / 0.78 / 0.08) - 11-0 - 10/1

A strong contender from the powerful Willie Mullins yard and one that is hard to pin any real negatives against. If there is one concern it may be the discrepancy between his Irish handicap mark and his British handicap mark. Our handicapper has put him on a mark of 148, however, if this race was due to be run in Ireland then he would be running off 139. If we consider the fact that he won his last race (The Troyton Chase at Navan) from a mark of 119 then he will be running off a handicap rating a full 29lbs higher this time around; that is quite a hike in any book. From a Dosage perspective his stats look good although a negative CD rating would have put him higher up on my list.

Dosage Rating - 4/5

1-1-1 - OUR MONTY - 6yo (2-0-9-4-5 (20) / 0.48 / -0.50) - 10-8 - 10/1

Another from the Mullins yard and once again there is a discrepancy between his Irish and British handicap mark; 135 Irish - 142 British. He is another that ticks most trend boxes, however, he has been on the go since June, racking up 8 runs in the process. It would be unusual for a Welsh National winner to have had so many runs in the season and to add to his task he will be running from a mark 32lbs higher than his last run. His Dosage figures are a positive but I feel this may be a tough task for the gelding.
Dosage Rating - 5/5

4 - HALCON GENELARDAIS - 9yo - (2-0-7-5-0 (14) / 0.65 / -0.07) - 11-9 - 12/1

A horse who's credentials for this race we hardly need to discuss. The winner in 2006; a head runner-up in 2007 and a gallant 7 length 3rd in last seasons renewal. This is a race he loves and I suspect he will once again be there or thereabouts. He ticks all trend boxes except one; the amount of weight he has to carry. His consistency has ultimately been his downfall and once again he has to give weight away to a number of up and coming types. 12-1 does offer some EW value and I would be surprised if he fails to reach the places once more. It goes without saying that his Dosage Profile is ideal for this race.

Dosage Rating - 5/5

/ - FLINTOFF - 8yo - (9-1-10-4-4 (28) / 1.15 / 0.25) - 10-6 - 14/1

A talented yet quirky individual this Tim Vaughan trained gelding has one MAJOR negative against his name; he is yet to race this season. Not only is this a negative based on previous race stats it is also a negative based on the horses own individual preferences; he is yet to win on his seasonal debut (from 5 previous attempts). Trainer Tim Vaughan's track stats also lead us to another negative factor as he is yet to score with his Chepstow national hunt runners from 31 previous attempts. His Dosage stats teeter at the top end of what is needed for a Welsh National winner but this alone isn't enough for me to consider putting some NTF funds on the 8yo.

Dosage Rating - 3/5

2 - COMPANERO - 9yo - (4-1-1-6-4 (16) / 0.52 / -0.31) - 10-6 - 14/1

A touch inexperienced over the larger obstacles with only 4 starts to his name and also lacks that vital win or place form in a class 1 chase. His 4 chase runs have so far taken place in single figure fields and the likely hustle and bustle of the Welsh national may well cause him some problems. Trainer Howard Johnson does not send many runners to the Welsh track and with a record of 0/8 in the last 5 seasons you can maybe understand why. His Dosage figures do at least offer up a positive angle, however, at the moment he does not strike me as the likely winner.

Dosage Rating - 5/5

5-1 - SILVER BY NATURE - 7yo - (3-3-6-5-1 (18) / 1.00 / 0.11) - 10-2 - 14/1

The northern raider comes into this on the back of an eye-catching 9 length victory at Carlisle, however, he is another one who lacks that vital class 1 chase experience. There must also be a small concern over his jumping as he has fallen or unseated on 3 of his 9 chase starts. His Dosage figures give him a chance but similar to some of the other contenders it would preferable for him to have a negative CD rating.

Dosage Rating - 4/5

1-u-1 - OPERATION HOUDINI - 7yo - (4-0-8-6-0 (18) / 0.80 / 0.11) - 10-5 - 14/1

Another Irish raider and another who has packed in more races than is ideal already this season (6 to be precise). His jumping has been very hit or miss recently with 3 unseats in his past 6 chase starts. The 7yo is another who's Dosage is good but could be better and does not stand out as the probable winner.
Dosage Rating - 4/5


8-5 - GONE TO LUNCH - 9yo - (5-0-9-4-4 (22) / 0.76 / -0.09) - 11-1 - 16/1

Has not hit the ground running this season and that automatically flags up a negative (18/19 finished top 4 LTO) although striking him off for coming 5th in the Hennessy may be a tad harsh. The upside of his 2 below par performances is that he has dropped 4lbs to 149 (only 1lbs higher than his Scottish National 2nd mark). The big question mark over the Jeremy Scott runner is his ability to perform on testing conditions, something he has never tried before due to connections believing he is not at his best when there is cut in the ground. If he does handle the conditions then his Dosage figures suggest he could play a part in the finish.
Dosage Rating - 4/5

2-2 - COE - 7yo - (0-1-3-4-2 (10) / 0.33 / -0.70) - 10-5 - 16/1

A very interesting runner from the Sue Smith yard. The 7yo hits all the stats and his form strongly suggests that running over staying distances with the mud flying around his ears is exactly what he wants. From a Dosage perspective he has an outstanding chance and his stamina heavy figures back up the suggestion that marathon trips are what he needs. The one minor worry is trainer Sue Smith's Chepstow record; she has sent 11 chasers to the track with zero success. The stable did manage a 3rd place in this race in 2004 so it isn't as if her limited chase runners at the track have all run poorly.
Dosage Rating - 5/5




CONCLUSION

At the moment its difficult to confidently throw the NTF funds at any of the runners and its even possible the winner has not been mentioned in the above analysis. However, I have always been a big fan of COE and at the moment he looks like my number one pick. His 2 runs this season will have him spot on for this and he will be right at home on the predicted soft going. It is always dangerous to rule a horse out because we 'think' he won't act on the ground and GONE TO LUNCH could surprise. It is almost impossible to ignore HALCON GENELARDAIS and everything looks in place for another big run from the track specialist. If BERONI is not too inconvenienced by the severity of the handicapper then he may also enter calculations.


Feel free to mention any of your own fancies in the comments box below.


Hopefully time will allow me another big race preview before Xmas fully swings into action!



Ben

King George VI Chase - The NTF Preview

*Picture - Santa loves to indulge in a bit of in-running punting!

With Santa getting some last minute shopping in I guess that signals that its almost time for the NTF crew (Mrs NTF, the greyhounds and me!) to make our long trip up north to see the rest of the family. Now don't get me wrong, I have no problem visiting the family at Xmas time but it does impact greatly on my race viewing; my punting; my analysis and this year, my NTF updates! Boxing Day is more than likely a write off for any blog updates as is the 27th which is unfortunate as 9 races are analysed in 'Narrowing the Field' over the 2 days.

To compensate for my likely lack of blogging over the festive period I've decided that all post's that are due to hit 'NTF - The Blog' in the coming days are to be dedicated to the racing action scheduled at Kempton, Leopardstown, Wetherby & Chepstow over the Xmas period.

....and what better place to start than the festive highlight itself; The King George VI Chase -

THE KING

*Seasonal form - Horse - Age - Dosage figures - Current odds

1 - KAUTO STAR - 9yo - (2-2-6-10-2 (22) / 0.47 / -0.36) - 4/6

Can anything or anyone stop the Kauto juggernaut from steamrollering its way to a fourth King George victory in a row? He has won the last 3 renewals by a collective 27 lengths and it will take an almighty effort from someone to stop him adding to that impressive total. If you excuse his two 2nd place efforts at Exeter early on in his career then the 9yo is 7 from 7 on right-handed tracks and in my opinion has never looked like getting beat going this way round. His Dosage figures are spot on for this race and unless he has deteriorated remarkably since his Haydock win I can't see this superstar getting beat.

THE CHALLENGERS

2 - IMPERIAL COMMANDER - 8yo - (3-2-4-2-1 (12) / 1.40 / 0.33) - 6/1

Does he truly stay 3 miles? Can he go right-handed? Will the track suit? Was Haydock his best chance to beat Kauto? Can he perform to the same level away from Cheltenham? Can he outperform his Dosage Figures? With those kind of questions hanging over the gelding I would be wanting bigger than 6-1! It's hard to forget how quickly IMPERIAL COMMANDER faded in last years King George; was the stable under a cloud or does he just not perform going right handed? Too many questions for me I'm afraid and from a Dosage perspective this race really is not ideal for Nigel Twiston Davies stable star.

3 - MADISON DU BERLAIS - 8yo - (0-0-3-1-0 (4) / 0.60 / -0.25) - 8/1

The flat track specialist but can he handle Kauto? His Dosage weak profile should not put anyone off as EDREDON BLEU, ONE MAN & ALGAN all won the King George in the past 15 years with a similar profile. The stat that should worry people is trainer David Pipe's record at Kempton; 0-14 in December and 5-63 (7%) overall. There must also be a small worry that the French-bred 8yo will start to regress sooner rather than later; this will be his 40th race since he started his career as a 3yo. 8/1 is a tempting each-way price but I feel there is better value elsewhere.

1-1 - DEEP PURPLE - 8yo - (5-1-7-2-1 (16) / 1.46 / 0.44) - 14/1

This is a horse I have underestimated all season; is it now time to get some NTF funds on the Evan Williams trained runner? Now rated 166 over fences, his overall record does have a solid look to it, however, I do have a couple of reservations. The majority of his wins have come in smaller fields and there is a chance of a double figure field this year; the bigger field would temper enthusiasm slightly. I am also still not convinced he will stay the 3 miles. Yes he won the Charlie Hall Chase over 3m1f but if he had faced more reliable opposition that day I feel his stamina limitations would have been exposed. Dosage suggests that the King George may be a step to far for this second season chaser and the minor places seem his best chance.


4 - BARBERS SHOP - 7yo - (2-0-8-9-3 (22) / 0.38 / -0.50) - 16-1

The 20-1 I highlighted last week about the Queen's runner is long gone and as I mentioned on my last post, this is a horse I think could be set for a very big run. Dosage figures are spot on for this Grade 1 and any suggestion of the gelding not staying will hopefully be put to bed after this one. For a full report on his chances click here. 16-1 still offers decent EW value.


8-P - NACARAT - 8yo - (0-2-6-0-2 (10) / 1.00 / -0.20) - 16-1

The exuberant grey will have to put two very disappointing runs behind him if he is too figure here. His Dosage figures are a lot closer than a few other runners but they still are not perfect. A convincing winner of last season's Racing Post Chase over course & distance tell u that he enjoys the track but is that as good as he is? His 3rd in last seasons Melling Chase possibly isn't the strongest form on show and he may well find life tough at the top. 16-1 does not appeal at the moment.

THE OUTSIDERS

1-3 - ALBERTAS RUN - 8yo - (5-1-6-6-0 (18) / 1.00 / 0.28) - 20-1

His Dosage figures do not scream 'King George winner', however, for a brief moment in last seasons renewal he looked the only horse that would mount a challenge to Kauto Star. He has started this season in fine fettle and odds of 20-1 are pretty generous. Providing the ground does not start worse than good to soft the J J O'Neill gelding again has a great chance of reaching the places.

2-4 - SCHINDLERS HUNT - 9yo - (2-0-6-2-0 (10) / 1.00 / 0.20) - 33-1

Another who's Dosage figures do not point towards a possible winner. He is yet to win over further than 2m5f and yet to win outside of his native Ireland; not stats I can see changing on Boxing Day. His 2 runs this season have seen him beaten 15L & 13L and unless the ground really cuts up I can't see Dessie Hughes trained runner getting anywhere near the places.

8-8-2 - TARTAK - 6yo - (2-0-8-0-0 (10) / 1.50 / 0.40) - 50-1

Big things were expected of last seasons Arkle 5th, however, so far he has failed to deliver. Jumping errors have blighted his season and even if he puts in a clear round here I just don't see him being good enough. This will be his 1st attempt at 3 miles but his Dosage figures are far from ideal for the test the King George delivers, I don't expect TARTAK to be in their fighting at the death in this Grade 1.

6-1-ro - OUR VIC - 11yo - (2-0-9-5-0 (16) / 0.68 / -0.06) - 33/1

Getting a bit long in the tooth for races like this and it would take a big leap of faith to back the David Pipe runner this year. Saying that, his Dosage profile is more suitable than a number of other runners and he was second in this in 2007.

1-2 - MASTER MEDIC - 8yo - (3-1-11-5-0 (20) / 0.90 / 0.10) - 50-1

Step up in class and distance and personally I feel his rating of 156 flatters him slightly. Likely to be out of his depth although his Dosage figures at least give him an outside chance of seeing out the trip.

5 - RACING DEMON - 9yo - (2-0-6-4-0 (12) / 0.71 / 0.00) - 66-1

Has run well in this race in the past but judging by his comeback run after over a year off last time out, he is some way short of where he needs to be to get competitive here. Dosage gives him an outside chance but realistically he will be lucky to reach the places this year.

5 - ROLL ALONG - 9yo - (4-4-2-0-2 (12) / 3.00 / 0.67) - 66-1

In my opinion, a horse that has always been over rated. His Dosage figures give him little to no chance and so do I. He has been beaten a total of 94 lengths on his last 3 runs! I can only see him adding to that if lining up in the King George.

CONCLUSION

Very difficult to see past KAUTO STAR. He loves the track and trainer Paul Nicholls has stated that his comeback run at Haydock has "...brought him on a ton and he looks better and sharper". In truth, very few fit the Dosage trends and this only strengthens the case for a fourth KAUTO STAR victory. The rest look to be playing for the places and at the prices BARBERS SHOP and ALBERTAS RUN catch the eye.

I will be back soon with another Festive preview for your Dosage delights.

Ben

Dave's Dreaming of Taking the Breeze!

Very quick post tonight readers.

Providing Ascot escapes the clutches of the winter wonderland that is due around the country tomorrow, we should be in for a cracking little Novice Chase featuring runners from 4 of the top stables.

The Noel Novices' chase (Totepool Novices' Chase as it is now called) is one of 2 races analysed in 'Narrowing the Field' at tomorrow's Ascot meeting and features one of my TOTE TEN TO FOLLOW horses, DAVE'S DREAM (1-1-3-2-5 (12) / 0.41 / -0.75).

I am a huge fan of the imposing 6yo and long term I believe he could well be a Gold Cup horse. Tomorrow, however, I don't think he will have it all his own way. The horse I fear most is TAKE THE BREEZE (1-1-3-1-2 (8) / 0.78 / -0.25) from the all conquering Paul Nicholls yard. He is 2 from 2 over fences and last time out claimed the scalp of the well regarded BENSALEM (2-0-9-1-0 (12) / 1.18 / 0.25).

If the racing at Ascot gets the go-ahead tomorrow then I urge you to watch this Grade 2 Novice Chase.

Until the weekend, Happy Punting!

Ben

Where is the value to be found in the King George VI market?

*Picture - Ice Cube (What the hell has he got to do with Barbers Shop?!?)

With Christmas fast approaching (EEK!) this can only mean one thing - The KING GEORGE VI CHASE is almost upon us (YIPEE!).

Can the mighty KAUTO STAR be stopped in his quest for a fourth King George crown? Probably not but that shouldn't stop us looking for some value elsewhere in the race.

IMPERIAL COMMANDER & MADISON DU BERLAIS are both currently trading at single figure prices and although they are the 2 that are closest to KAUTO STAR on official ratings I'm willing to look elsewhere for the value.

BARBERS SHOP (2-0-8-9-3 (22) / 0.38 / -0.50) is a horse that many have pegged as a 'non-stayer'; I am not one of those people. For a majority of the Hennessy Gold Cup the Nicky Henderson trained gelding travelled smoothly under Barry Geraghty and for a brief moment looked like he may take a hand in the finish. Unfortunately, he found Denman to hard a nut to crack, finishing a respectable 7 1/4L 4th. Just over 7 lengths behind 'The Tank' is pretty decent form on your seasonal debut and he can be expected to come on for that run; he has improved for his first run of the season in the past. Strictly on a line through the 2008 Paddy Power Gold Cup (4 runs ago for BARBERS SHOP) the Queens horse only has 2 3/4 lengths to make up with IMPERIAL COMMANDER and he can boast something that the Nigel Twiston Davies gelding cannot; winning form on a right-handed track. Four of his six victories have come when going right-handed whereas all 6 of IMPERIAL COMMANDERS wins have come going left-handed. At 7 years old BARBERS SHOP is also of the optimum age to reach the places in the King George; of the last 30 placed horses 70% have been 8 or younger with 11/30 (37%)being 7 years old. If he is ever going to prove the 'non-staying-doubters' wrong this is his best time to do it.

At 20-1 with Skybet, Sporting Bet & William Hill this Royal runner is over-priced and looks cracking Each-Way material. We just have to hope connections let him run now.......


Win a Racehorse!!

Throughout the short life of this blog many an individual that is in someway connected to the racing world has been in contact with me here at NTF HQ; from owners and trainers through to punters and fellow bloggers plus everyone in between & out with!

Just last week the guys behind “My Winning Chance” were in contact with me asking if I could Dosage profile their ‘prize’ and maybe give an insight into the horse’s pedigree. Now I’m sure most of you are asking “What the hell is My Winning Chance?” don’t worry, I asked myself the same question! Basically, “My Winning Chance” is an initiative that gives regular racing fans (like myself) the chance to own a race horse OUTRIGHT for 2 years. All you need to do is correctly answer a couple of racing based questions, pay £20 and then hope your name will be pulled out of the hat when the prize draw is made. There are a couple of competitions currently being run by the British Horse Racing Authority where by you can win a FREE entry to the prize draw, this would obviously avoid you the task of taxing your brain power and parting with your hard earned!

Before anyone asks, I am not involved in any way with this operation I just thought NTF readers would appreciate this competition being bought to their attention. I only know about it because they asked me to cast my Dosage eye over the beastie, I figured a lot of you may not be aware of this competition. The only involvement I have had is setting up the horse’s pedigree profile on pedigreequery.com, as a favour for the guys behind the competition.

The Horse that the lucky winner will own is an un-raced/un-named 1 year old who is to be trained by either David Simcock or Peter Chapple Hyam. For the purposes of Dosage analysis I named the horse MYWINNINGCHANCE (this may well be what the colt ends up being called) and I think it only prudent that I give you my Dosage based view on the son of POMEROY.

MYWINNINGCHANCE (8-6-10-0-0 (24) / 3.80 / 0.92)

As you can see this is one speedy young fella!

Looking at his profile suggests he may well be best at the sprinting distances although it may be possible for him to stay a mile, however, this may be stretching his stamina capabilities. With so much speed in his Dosage he could easily turn out to be trail blazing front runner; if he does not fancy leading everyone a merry dance he may try and win his races with a devastating burst of speed. I expect you won’t really find out his preference until he sets hoof on the track for the first time.

A majority of his speed influences come from HABITAT in the 3rd generation of his pedigree and MR PROSPECTOR in the 4th generation of his pedigree. DANZIG & A.P INDY supply the bulk of his classic points and this will likely be the determining factor as to whether he stays further than his pure Dosage figures suggest he will.

I managed to acquire some photo's of MYWINNINGCHANCE from the guys in charge -

If you think the animal looks good now just imagine it with the NTF silks on board!! (They don't exist yet but we can all dream!)

I would like to point out at this stage that if I happen to win this horse its name will no longer be MYWINNINGCHANCE it will be NARROWINGTHEFIELD!!

I think its a cracking prize and I'll be doing my damnedest to secure one of the free tickets!! Have a look for yourselves at http://www.mywinningchance.com/.

Good luck if you enter.

Before I go I'd like to quickly mention a horse that was running today at Catterick. The horse was MERIDIAN CITY (0-2-2-4-2 (10) / 0.43 / -0.60); trained by Howard Johnson and owned by the Wylie's. Although beaten by just under 4 lengths into second the ground at Catterick would not have been ideal for this Presenting gelding and we shouldn't be writing him off yet. Once this 5yo gets back on a better surface (good or better) we should see him reach the winners enclosure once again. One to keep in mind for the future.

p.s. It turns out 'Narrowing the Field - Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing' has sold out (AGAIN) at the publishers. They have assured me that it will be in stock by 17th December at the latest so you still have time to order and receive before Xmas. The PDF version is obviously always available and you can always check Amazon for available copies.

Until Later, Happy Punting

Ben (NTF)

Boylesports Weekend Review - Yet another Champion Hurdle contender?

*Picture - Mighty Man - Mighty Man (the horse) goes chasing today - 2.10 Hereford

The four barrelled Dosage assault on this weekends Cheltenham meeting resulted in -

• A scorching shot straight at the bulls eye (TELL MASSINI)
• A light grazing of the target (SKIPPERS BRIG & CHAPOTURGEON)
• A big name kill (CELESTIAL HALO/KHYBER KIM)
• A couldn't-miss-point-blank-range blast (ZAYNAR)

As usual the 2 day meeting resulted in an abundance of high quality action with a sprinkling of answers and even more questions!

FRIDAY

12.05 Novices' Chase

WEIRD AL (5-1-6-8-2 (22) / 0.69 / -0.05) put down a big marker for the RSA Chase in March. Jumping brilliantly, the Ian Williams gelding knuckled down after the last to hold of PIGEON ISLAND (6-1-7-2-0 (26) / 1.48 / 0.42) by a comfortable 2 lengths. His Dosage rating suggests that a step up in distance should hold no fear for the 6yo and another run before the festival to gain some valuable experience should see him spot on for the 3 mile novice championship. The Reynoldstown at Ascot in February is well within his Dosage capabilities as an option for a prep run.


1.50 Listed Handicap Chase

THE PACKAGE (2-0-11-4-5 (22) / 0.52 / -0.45) finally lost his maiden chaser tag at the 7th attempt and in doing so found himself being talked of as a future Grand National winner. His Dosage rating gives him a big chance of Aintree success but in my eyes he has never been the most straight forward of rides and I have my reservations about how he would take to the unique challenge the National presents.

Runner-up THE TOTHER ONE (5-1-6-4-0 (16) / 1.29 / 0.44) again ran another sound race without really looking like he was going to win. The Welsh National in 2 weeks time was looking like his likely Xmas target, however, Fridays race was not exactly a walk in the park and the exertions of this race may well have left their mark. It would be no surprise to me if he were to now swerve the Chepstow slog.


3.35 Novices' Hurdle

The closing novices' hurdle was billed as a rematch between the Paul Nicholls trained GHIZAO (1-2-10-3-0 (16) / 1.00 / 0.06) and the Alan King trained LIDAR (3-2-5-2-0 (12) / 1.67 / 0.50), however, someone forgot to tell Nicky Henderson's GENERAL MILLER (6-0-6-2-0 (14) / 1.80 / 0.71). The winner is now 3 from 3 and there is no reason to believe he cant progress into a very decent animal. His Dosage rating does not make him an ideal Supreme Novices candidate but there will be plenty of other races for the 4yo. Runner-up GHIZAO does, however, have the Dosage Profile of a Supreme Novice winner and he can only improve for his first taste of the hurdling game. I will be watching this one closely with regards to the Supreme Novices in March. For all the hype surrounding LIDAR he has actually only won 1 of his 5 starts and he looked less than top notch here on his hurdling debut.


SATURDAY

12.45 Novices' Chase

Another Paul Nicholls novice chaser and another convincing success. INCHIDALY ROCK (0-0-2-10-6 (18) / 0.06 / -1.22) put his endless stamina to good use to outstay his nearest challenger HEY BIG SPENDER (2-1-13-4-4 (24) / 0.66 / -0.29) by a hearty 9 lengths. His ultimate target is rumoured to be the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival but I can tell you now, his Dosage Figures are the exact opposite of what is required to win that specific race. Should he line up in his proposed target there will be zero NTF funds riding on the 7yo.

1.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

The first Dosage race of the weekend and a perfect example of Narrowing the Field at work. Take a look at the following table -











As you can see TELL MASSINI was the ONLY runner to gain full greens and in all honesty Paddy Brennan never had a moments worry on the Tom George trained 5yo. This was the geldings second win at Prestbury Park and his 3rd win (from 3) on soft going. Paddy Brennan looked to be going wide in search of better ground most of the way and that suggests that healthier underfoot conditions would not be a problem for the winner. The assumption is that TELL MASSINI will end up in the 3m novice event at the festival, however, his Dosage figures suggest that a crack at the more prestigious Ballymore Properties Hurdle should not be dismissed. His sire, DR MASSINI, had a winner in the race in 2007 with MASSINI'S MAGUIRE.

2.25 Boylesports.com Gold Cup

Dosage race 2 of the day and although won by the Dosage busting POQUELIN (5-0-5-0-0 (10) / 3.00 / 1.00) I am more than happy with my narrowing of the field. From the 17 starters I narrowed the field to a more manageable 4 runners; here's how they performed -

• SKIPPERS BRIG - 3rd - 15/2


• CHAPOTURGEON - 4th - 13/2


• JAYO - 5th - 20/1


• HOLD EM - 6th - 9/1

Would CHAPOTURGEON have won if jumping the last cleanly? I'm not sure but plaudits must go to jockey Daryl Jacob who performed a miracle in staying on board the grey and securing some each-way money for myself. In all honesty the young jockey gave the Nicholls horse a superlative ride all the way and he should now have fully alerted the attentions of some of the bigger yards. Well done young man.

The winner, POQUELIN, is now to be put away until festival time where he is currently 5/1 second favourite for the Ryanair Chase. Although the race is still in the embryonic stages there is a Dosage trend appearing for the mid-distance Grade 1; a trend that POQUELIN does not fit. Obviously this did not stop him in yesterdays race and with 3 good runs in a row at Cheltenham under his belt (including a course & distance win) I may not be quite so ruthless the next time he falls outwith the stats, he may well be one of those horses that will constantly be a thorn in the side of the Dosage figures.

3.05 Boylesports.com International Hurdle

Dosage race 3 of the day and the trends highlighted beforehand that hot favourite CELESTIAL HALO (3-0-16-4-5 (28) / 0.65 / -0.29) was no certainty. Since the 2000 renewal this race has been favouring runners with a DI of 1.00 and above and a CD of 0.00 and above; PUNJABI (2-5-16-1-2 (26) / 1.36 / 0.15), MEDERMIT (1-1-8-2-0 (12) / 1.00 / 0.08) & KHYBER KIM (5-6-15-2-4 (32) / 1.37 / 0.19) were the 3 that fell into this range. On previous form the inconsistent KHYBER KIM was not my idea of the likely winner, or other punters judged by his 12-1 starting price, but it was indeed the Twiston Davies gelding that de-railed the CELESTIAL HALO train. Is he now ANOTHER Champion Hurdle candidate? Dosage gives him a shout but otherwise I'm not convinced. His 3 hurdle victories have all come on soft and it is unlikely he will get that kind of conditions come March plus he has never won a race after December, spring conditions do not look like his cup of tea.

The horse to take out of the race for me was the current champion PUNJABI. He travelled like a dream until approaching the last flight when his fitness became an issue. Trainer Nicky Henderson had pre-warned us that his fitness may be a concern and jockey Barry Geraghty rightly didn't knock him about when his chance had gone. He is sure to come on bundles for this run.

3.40 Relkeel Hurdle

The 4th and last Dosage race of the day and it was won in grand style by the current Champion Hurdle favourite ZAYNAR (5-1-6-3-1 (16) / 1.29 / 0.38). His Dosage figures were spot on for this 2m 4f Grade 2 and the result never looked in much doubt. There were a couple of sloppy jumps from the grey but that was more than likely down to the average pace the race was run at than anything else. I would like to see him take on some of the other Champion Hurdle contenders over TWO MILES before I make an informed decision about this one, so far he has not beaten much in the way of quality in his 2 runs this term.


FREE PDF

Today and tomorrow are the last days for those of you that want to get their hands on the FREE PDF that is available to all new NTF subscribers. If you are interested simply fill in the form at the top right of the blog. Once you have done that remember to check your JUNK EMAIL folders and mark the email you receive as SAFE. Once you confirm your (free) subscription you will receive a link to where you can download the 2 FREE PDF's.

Until next time, Happy Punting

Ben

Skip the Turgeon and Hold the Jayo but is the Sky the Limit!?

*Picture - Bobby Ewing (Did he win yesterday or was it a dream?)

NTF launches a 4 barreled assault on today's Cheltenham BOYLESPORT's meeting -

• Barrel 1 - ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (BRISTOL NOVICES' HURDLE)


• Barrel 2 - BOYLESPORTS.COM GOLD CUP


• Barrel 3 - BOYLESPORTS.COM INTERNATIONAL HURDLE


• Barrel 4 - RELKEEL HURDLE

All 4 races are analysed in depth in 'Narrowing the Field', however, here at the blog we are taking aim at the big one; The Boylesports.com Gold Cup.

With 17 runners due to go to post we can't study them all thoroughly, so in true NTF style lets get some Dosage stats on the go and start Narrowing the Field.

DP - 11/12 had 8 points or more in their Dosage Profile

DI - 8/11 had a DI of 1.00 and above

CD - 8/11 had a CD of 0.15 and above

Running style fact - Since 1994 the race has only been run on Soft or worse ground on 2 occasions, on both of these occasions a HOLD-UP horse has won....(today's ground is riding soft)

* For more extensive Dosage analysis please buy 'Narrowing the Field - Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing'

Applying this to tomorrow's 17 runner field gives us the following -


















Not a huge amount of runners are confidently ruled out but with 17 runners due to face the tapes we need to be ruthless.

STAN & GWANAKO go due to being Dosage weak (in all honesty there are probably a few more reasons to drop that 2).

From the bottom we lose FROM DAWN TO DUSK, RAZOR ROYALE & MOUNT OSCAR.

Being ruthless we must also drop the 2 Pipe runners OUR VIC (sorry old boy) & previous winner TAMARINBLEU.

From the top we have got to give POQUELIN, ATOUCHBETWEENACARA & BIBLE LORD the chop.

SKY'S THE LIMIT is borderline so I'm going to stick him on the fence for now but if I find any other signs of weakness then he will get dropped also.

That gives a short(er) list of HOLD EM, IDOLE FIRST, SKIPPERS BRIG, CHAPOTURGEON, KNOWHERE and JAYO.

6.5 is still plenty to study but its a hell of a lot better than 17!

2 on the short list look easily opposed; IDOLE FIRST & KNOWHERE. Horses aged 9 and older have a poor win record in this race which is a negative against both.

IDOLE FIRST has to overcome a mammoth 728 days absence and personally I cannot see him doing that; not at this level anyway.

As highlighted in my last post, Nigel Twiston Davies (trainer of KNOWHERE) has a poor record with his chasers at this December meeting and although the horse is on a very (VERY) tempting handicap mark, I have to look him over for now.

6.5 down to 4.5; HOLD EM, SKIPPERS BRIG, CHAPOTURGEON and JAYO.

I will leave further narrowing down to yourselves.

Before I leave the topic of the Boylesports Gold Cup I must tell you that the horse giving me the biggest headache for tomorrow is SKIPPERS BRIG. He hits the Dosage average for the race almost BANG ON, he will absolutely LOVE the ground, he falls into the ideal ratings band for the race; 132 - 143 (he is rated 140), the distance looks spot on, he WON last time out and is clearly still on an upward curve!

BUT as highlighted in my last blog post, his trainer NICKY RICHARDS is yet to win a chase at Cheltenham from 33 attempts!?

A conflict of angles here at NTF, I'll let my brain battle this one out overnight!


A big day's punting awaits us tomorrow and here's hoping the Dosage figures get over their seconditis fever and supply us with some pre-Christmas profits!

Good luck whatever you choose to punt your money on tomorrow and I apologise profusely for the picture of Patrick Duffy showering at the top of the blog!!

Ben

Cheltenham Boylesports meeting - Training the Field

A quick post today but just enough time to alert you to a couple of trainers who struggle to get winners on the board at Cheltenham's December meeting.


First for scrutiny is Nigel Twiston Davies.


It is reasonably common knowledge that the Twiston Davies yard has a dip in form at this time of year. This trend is none more evident that at Cheltenham's December meeting -










A 4% strike rate and a -£88.75 level stakes loss makes for uncomfortable reading for the Naunton based trainer.

The chasers are the group that tend to suffer the most - 1 win from 57 attempts for a pitiful 1% strike rate - and backers of RAZOR ROYALE in the Boylesports Gold Cup should consider this before lumping on.

The Twiston Davies chasers should not be completely ignored however; 28% have in fact made the top 3, it is the act of actually winning that seems to be the stumbling block.



Next up is a Northern based trainer who's plundering missions to Prestbury Park are yet to bear any fruit; Nicky Richards.

It is a long way from the Richards yard in Greystoke to Cheltenham in Gloucstershire, 224 miles to be precise, and it probably feels even longer on the way back! Take a look at the stats -

16 runners in December have yet to herald even a solitary winner and only one runner has managed to breach the top 2.

It is not only the winter months that the yards runners struggle around the undulations of Prestbury Park. From 33 previous runners at the track they are still waiting for their first winner over fences!

Can Skippers Brig change this desperate statistic in the Boylesports Gold Cup? I'm not sure I would be wanting to put any NTF money on the mud lover based on the above stats.

Last but definitely not least we have champion trainer Paul Nicholls.


Although not a major negative, Paul Nicholls runners perhaps do not hit the mark as many times as is to be expected -












His hurdle runners have a decent 22% strike rate, giving backers a healthy £27.25 level stakes profit, his chasers on the other hand do not fair quite as well. From 71 starts only 7 (9%) have come home in front, leaving backers with a -£46.02 level stakes loss.


Similar to Nigel Twiston Davies the Paul Nicholls chasers do have a habit of filling the places; an impressive 44% have made the top 3.


Hopefully the above stats give you some food for thought for this weekends Boylesports meeting.

Until later, Happy punting

Ben

NTF struck down by a dose of SECONDITIS and SMALL FIELD SYNDROME

*Picture - For Paddy the painter! (Like Silverburn, not as good as his brother!)


A somewhat sub-standard weekend of racing in terms of Dosage, punting and big race field sizes.

Here at NTF HQ it was a major episode of seconditis for the Dosage figures AND my own personal betting but as I always maintain "you cant win 'em all".

Small fields and heavy ground can generate irregular results, however, we can always extract future pointers for our information banks no matter how our own personal punting went.

Saturday

SANDOWN

12.55 Pertemps Hcp Hurdle

Although finishing a well beaten 6th the horse that caught my eye here was the former Paul Nicholls trained SILVERBURN (0-1-1-6-2 (10) / 0.18 / -0.90). Now trained by Evan Williams, DENMAN's full brother travelled and jumped the best I have seen him do for a number of outings before fading when the taps were turned to full. He is a horse that generally needs his first run of the season and with this pipe opener under his belt he now becomes of interest from a punting perspective. If he appears on a right-handed track, over 3m+ and with conditions on the soft side then the chances are he will be carrying a wedge of NTF money (hopefully at a pretty tasty price to boot!). I have every confidence in Evan Williams ability to get this horse back in the winners enclosure sooner rather than later.

1.55 Henry VIII Novices' Chase

The first Dosage race of the day and the first of my weekend punts. CRACK AWAY JACK (4-1-13-1-1 (20) / 1.35 / 0.30) was a standout on form AND Dosage figures, the only query being his ability to handle the underfoot conditions (he had never encountered such testing ground previously). Having secured evens on Betfair about the Emma Lavelle 5yo I was confident his undoubted class would see him through against his 3 rivals, A P McCoy and SOMERSBY (2-0-4-2-4 (12) / 0.50 / -0.50) obviously had other ideas! CRACK AWAY JACK jumped exceptionally in places, making a lovely shape over the Sandown fences, however, he did meet some of the fences less than perfect and in my opinion the ground was the primary cause of this. Given better ground I feel he could prove difficult to beat in the run up to Cheltenham. The Henrietta Knight trained winner does not always look the most fluent of rides and he could well turn out to be another RACING DEMON or CALGARY BAY rather than the next BEST MATE. The front 2 both have a decent shout in the ARKLE come March time, based solely on their Dosage figures.

2.25 Tingle Creek

Dosage race 2 for the day and another poor turn out, with only 5 going to post for this Grade 1 two miler. The Dosage figures hinted that both WELL CHIEF (6-1-9-2-0 (18) / 1.77 / 0.61) & MAHOGANY BLAZE (6-3-9-2-0 (20) 2.08 / 0.65) had a tough task on their hands and my own personal opinion was that uneasy favourite BIG ZEB (4-0-8-8-2 (22) / 0.57 / -0.18) would not be suited by conditions. This left me with a straight up choice between previous winner, and course specialist, TWIST MAGIC (1-0-11-8-2 (22) / 0.42 / -0.45) and last seasons Arkle Chase champion FORPADYDEPLASTERER (5-1-8-4-0 (18) / 1.25 / 0.39). Of the 2 FORPADY' hit the Dosage trends head on and the early morning 13/2 was too large to ignore. From the outset it was clear that FORPADY' was not enjoying the soft conditions, with his jockey A P McCoy having to cajole him along from an early stage. To the horses immense credit he was the only runner within shouting distance of TWIST MAGIC turning for home but simply could not quicken in the sticky conditions. He is clearly a superior animal on better ground and with 2 solid Grade 1 seconds to his name this season, on less than ideal ground conditions, a portion of the NTF antepost fund has now been placed on the Tommy Cooper charge at a generous Betfair price of 15.5.

Nothing new was learned about TWIST MAGIC on Saturday other than his love affair with Sandown is still in full bloom. Even after this demolition performance I'm still not keen on backing him at Cheltenham.

3.00 Betinternet.com Hcp Hurdle

The Dosage correct runners all ran below par and although (nose) runner-up WILLIAM HOGARTH (3-1-13-6-9 (32) / 0.49 / -0.53) would have been an 'OK' result for the stats, it wasn't to be. Winner TASHEBA (6-1-13-0-0(20) / 2.08 / 0.65) defied top weight and could easily have more improvement yet to come. Old boy OVERSTRAND (3-4-18-17-2(44) / 0.57 / -0.25) looked dangerous for a while but folded when push came to shove. PEPITE DE SOLEIL (2-3-9-2-0(16) / 1.46 / 0.31) was given an odd ride by Ruby Walsh, being held up well off the pace before trying to close in on the pack turning for home but ultimately finding little at the business end. I don't believe that to be the filly's true running and she can be seen to better effect under more forceful tactics.

3.30 London National

Another punt and another SECOND place! At least this time I had E/W money on LORUM LEADER (4-1-1-4-4 (14) / 0.65 / -0.21) at 6-1. I can't see many runners progressing from this marathon chase and the only thing learned from this slog is that RAMBLING MINSTER (1-0-11-3-11 (26) / 0.33 / -0.88) is either far too high in the weights or his Aintree National experience from last season has left its mark on the 11yo.


CHEPSTOW

1.05 Novice Chase

This 3 mile slog in the Welsh mud was won in taking style by the J J O'Neill trained SYNCHRONISED (5-1-24-8-0(38) / 0.90 / 0.08). On paper this looked a hot little novice but the 6yo won comfortably enough, taking his overall record to 8 runs and 5 wins. The 4th horse, BESHABAR (3-2-7-1-1(14) / 1.55 / 0.36), ran an eye-catching race after a 637 day absence from the track. Looking outpaced at one point before cruising back into contention, eventually going down by a commendable 29 lengths (not knocked about when beaten). Both of these could be interesting come Festival time as last season William Hill Chase winner, WICHITA LINEMAN, took this race on his way to festival glory.


Sunday

KELSO

12.50 Paris Pike Novices' Chase

The easiest £12,524 KNOCKARA BEAU (3-5-8-1-1(18) / 2.00 / 0.44) is ever likely to make! A Sunday stroll for the 6yo and the outing should keep him ticking over for the time being.

1.20 Memorial Champion Chase

MONEY TRIX (2-0-9-7-0 (18) / 0.57 / -0.17) had to work harder than expected to secure victory but he was giving away lumps of weight to the runner-up, over a trip that is probably short of his best. His next target is reported to be the LEXUS Chase at Leopardstown over Xmas, whether he is up to that grade remains to be seen but his Dosage rating at least gives him a fighting chance of success.


PUNCHESTOWN

2.05 John Durkan Chase

The fourth Dosage race of the weekend and yet another that was effected by 'small field' syndrome. Always likely to be a tricky race for Dosage analysis due to the prominence of some strong 'gapping' trends, 2006 winner IN COMPLIANCE (3-1-6-4-2 (16) / 0.78 / -0.06) was the only runner to fit the race profile and he duly carried the NTF money at an early morning 9/2. As was to be expected, IN COMPLIANCE found one too good to finish a gallant second. 2m 4f at the top level is possibly on the short side for the Old Vic gelding these days and connections would be better concentrating their efforts on races at 3m+ from now on.

Its hard to call the winner JONCOL (1-2-7-0-2 (12) / 1.18 / 0.00) a Dosage buster but his win does highlight the need to treat 'gapping' stats with a degree of caution.

A rematch between the first 2 home looks on in the LEXUS Chase and based on their Dosage ratings I would expect both to be just as competitive in the Grade 1 festive highlight.

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Until later, Happy Punting

Cheers

Ben