SUNSHINE on a BONNIE day?

Will the sun be shining on us in this weekend's cavalry charge?

Another Saturday, another weekend packed full of high octane racing and yet another big field cavalry charge for us to get stuck into!! 

This time it's over the straight 7 furlongs at Ascot for the Class 2 Totesport.com Challenge Cup. We did the business last weekend at Ayr for the Gold Cup and I'm not ducking out of the challenge this weekend! Far from it, in fact I couldn't wait to get stuck into this 29 runner handicap. I love these types of races, they give us much more to work with, they offer us much more in the way of value and they give us a better chance of spotting something that the masses have missed. The methods I use can often turn up some gems in these types of races; in recent times we've had DIRAR (14-1) in the Ebor, MOUNT ATHOS (8-1) & TACTICIAN (20-1) in the Melrose Stakes and REDFORD (14-1) last weekend in the Ayr Gold Cup. Sure we will bomb out on occasions, like the Mallard Stakes, but that's racing, it happens, it's not an exact science.

In fact I'm fully prepared to bomb out today at Ascot. If I can highlight the winner of two large field competitive handicaps two weeks on the bounce then I'll be over the moon. The work has been done, I'm confident I've sorted the wheat from the chaff and I've nailed my colours to the mast, but at the same time I'm also realistic. There are 29 runners set to go to post, a lot can happen over 7 furlongs, I may have the tricky draw wrong; time will tell but at least I go into the race knowing I've put the effort in, I'm as prepared as I can be.

It's tough work but luckily I love doing it and I've given us the best chance possible by putting the £93,465 race through the NTF stats machine.

See what the stats have uncovered and download your FREE copy of the guide now -  

http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/Ascotchallengecup.pdf

The bookies seem to be ducking for cover a little this week and the big 3 - Corals, Ladbrokes & Willie Hill - are only offering a p!ss poor 4 places on this race!! AVOID them, get on with someone else. There are plenty paying down to 5th place (Bet365 and Paddy Power to name 2) and if you are attacking this from an EW perspective then shop around and bet with those that are paying the 5 places.

HURRICANE RUN'S RUGRATS

It's now the time of the season where soft is likely to appear in the going description pretty regularly and the 2yo's are going to get plenty of opportunity to run over a mile or slightly further; if my assessment is correct this is where Hurricane Run's offspring can start making an impact.

Today he sends out 1 runner - 

4.20 Haydock - 1m - Soft

PURIFICATION (3-1-7-3-0 (14) / 1.15 / 0.29)

Ran a decent race on his sole start so far at Sandown but probably found things happening all too fast for him. He ran as so further would suit that day and that's exactly what he gets here. Trainer John Gosden and jockey William Buick could hardly be in any better form at the minute and they will be confident of a decent run here.

So far Hurricane Run has had 5 runners on a soft surface, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 4th & 3rd.

Today I expect a big improvement on his debut 7th now he faces a mile on soft ground, especially with the stable in red hot form.

Nigel Twiston Davies

I think the Gold Cup winning trainer may have taken offence at my pointing out of his sub-standard Worcester record yesterday as he duly went out and won the first race on the card! However, normal service was resumed afterwards as they failed to score with any of their other 6 runners. I'm still not sure why the yard don't fire at the track but the stats are there for us all to see. It could be his runners don't take to the fixed brush hurdles? None of his hurdlers (including winner Lamb's Cross) jumped with any great deal of authority and it could just be they don't take to these types of obstacles? Again I could be barking up the wrong tree but I'll be looking for potential lay opportunities the next time the yard have runners at the track.

Best of luck with any bets you may place today and Happy Punting!

Ben (NTF)