Worcester woes for NTD?

Can NTD get back to winning Worcester ways?

It's no secret that the Nigel Twiston Davies (NTD) yard thrive at this time of year. A quick look at the yards 2 week stats tell us that once again they have come back from the short National Hunt break with all guns blazing - 7 winners from 16 runners (44% win S/R) for NTD and 5 wins from 8 mounts (63% win S/R) for stable jockey Paddy Brennan make for pretty impressive reading. 

Today NTD saddles 7 runners at one of his local tracks Worcester.

Another day of plundering the money?

Maybe not.....

The September stats for the yard in the past 5 seasons are not as impressive as one might expect - 8 runners - 0 winners - 1 placed horse. Admittedly that's only a small sample so I decided to look at their record at the track in September AND October; it's not much better - 3/29 for a 10% win S/R and a level stakes loss of -£13.25 and surprisingly their last 17 runners at the track have all been beaten. Stable jock Paddy Brennan also doesn't seem to thrive at this time of year at the track with a poor 1/23 (4% win S/R) at the track for a Level Stakes Loss of £-14.50; he does receive outside rides as well so it's not all down to the NTD runners.

I decided to widen my search to their year round record at Worcester (since the beginning of 2005), it shows a slight improvement to 15/117 for a 13% win S/R but still a bruising -£44.44 Level Stakes Loss.

Obviously these stats could be an aberration but at the moment they seem to be telling us to approach Twiston Davies and/or Paddy Brennan runners at Worcester with a certain degree of caution.

If you remember back a couple of years Worcester racetrack sustained significant damage as a result of flooding and the track was closed for a period of time. It's seems that since the track has been re-opened after the floods the NTD yard have failed to fire with their usual autumn precision. Before the floods the yard actually had a tidy record at the track and were ticking along with their usual authority; have the flood water changed something about the track that the NTD runners don't like? Not my area of expertise and I could be barking up the wrong tree but something has been affecting the yards runners. 

I often like to go fishing through my databases to see what I can pull out and the NTD Worcester stats are what were dangling on the end of my line this morning.

We will see today if their below average autumn Worcester record continues......

FREE NTF October trainer guide

Thanks to those of you that took the time to sign up for the FREE guide, I hope you find it of plenty use once the National Hunt season starts hitting full stride next month.

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FREE NTF Ascot Guide

Some top class racing from Ascot tomorrow and I'll be trying to follow up last week's succesful Ayr Gold Cup selection by trying to highlight the winner in the extremely competitive 29 runner - 7f - Totesport.com Challenge Cup.

FREE download will be available in tomorrows Blog post.

Ben (NTF)