Can CUE CARD Command Cheltenham?

Can CUE CARD become a double Festival champ?

CUE CARD: A star in the making?

Last season's impressive Champion bumper winner made his eagerly awaited hurdling debut at Aintree on Sunday and although it could be argued he didn't have much in the way of serious opposition amongst his 7 opponents he did dispatch them with the minimum amount of fuss; going away to win by 13 lengths.

But what do the stats tell us about Champion bumper winners and their likelihood of following up at the following season's Festival?

It seems to me we've been here before; an impressive Champion bumper winner winning on his hurdling debut (similar to 9 of the last 12 Champion bumper victors) who is then cut dramatically for festival glory in March.

Here is a run-down of the past 12 Champion bumper winners and how the fared at the following seasons Cheltenham Festival - 

DUNGUIB - 3rd in Supreme Novices' Hurdle

COUSIN VINNY - 5th in Supreme Novices' Hurdle

CORK ALL STAR - 7th in Supreme Novices' Hurdle

HAIRY MOLLY - 11th in Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle

MISSED THAT - 6th in Arkle Chase

TOTAL ENJOYMENT - N/A

LIBERMAN - N/A

PIZARRO - 2nd in Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle

JOE CULLEN - N/A

MONSIGNOR - 1st in Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle

ALEXANDER BANQUET - 7th in Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle

FLORIDA PEARL - 1st in Royal & Sun Alliance Chase

The above doesn't offer much in the way of hope for the Tizzard's stable star with only the exceptional pair of FLORIDA PEARL & MONSIGNOR going on to Cheltenham glory the following season.

But you know I like to dig a little deeper than this.

I want to take a look at how the offspring of CUE CARD'S sire (King's Theatre) handle -

a) Class 1 races (i.e. races at the top level) 

and 

b) Cheltenham over hurdles and fences

First let's take a look at how they handle running against the top opposition (all stats from the past 5 seasons) -  

Class 1 Hurdle races - 8/56 (14% S/R) LSP -£8.12

Class 1 Chase races - 2/25 (8% S/R) LSP -£17.50

Not bad stats on the hurdling front and this gives hope for CUE CARD when he is stepped up in grade.

Chase stats need improved but it should be noted that one of those wins was by WICHITA LINEMAN at the Cheltenham Festival.

Now let's see how the King's Theatre lot get on when faced with obstacles and the Cheltenham Hill (all class levels from the past 5 seasons) -  

Cheltenham Hurdlers - 6/39 (15% S/R) LSP +£1.38

Cheltenham Chasers - 4/15 (27% S/R) LSP +£14.50

Encouraging reading and both codes are showing level stakes profits at the moment. This gives hope to the chances of CUE CARD when heading back to Cheltenham and obstacles are put in the way.

But what if we look at King's Theatre offspring when running in class 1 hurdling events at Cheltenham? Are they capable of landing the spoils?

Cheltenham Class 1 Hurdlers - 4/16 (25% S/R) LSP +£9.38

A small but encouraging sample size to work with and stats that suggest the Tizzards' may be able to land Cheltenham Festival spoils for the 2nd season in succession.

It's still early days and until we see him jumping at speed against decent opposition it's hard to take a strong viewpoint on the 4yo but the sire stats are giving us good signs and on the face of Sunday's demolition job at Aintree the horse has a serious engine encased within his frame.

Could he be the 1st bumper winner since the mighty MONSIGNOR to follow up at the following season's Festival? I'm certainly excited to find out!!

2010/11 NTF Book - NOW AVAILABLE

You will see the 'BUY NOW' PAYPAL button at the right-hand side of the Blog where you can purchase and download the latest NTF book. The 2010/11 version not only includes updated Dosage trends but also has the NTF 'to follow' list and the NTF 09/10 Novices analysis as extra added bonuses.

Here is just a taster of what you will find in the 190 page e-book - 

• Concise Explanation of the Dosage Method and how to apply it
• Analysis of 145 top National Hunt races incorporating up to 15 years of stats
• Clear tables with complete analysis of all Dosage figures
• Examples of notable defeats suffered through inadequate Dosage Ratings
• Analysis of running styles pinpointing exactly where the winners travelled during the race
• Never before available trends giving a fresh look at National Hunt Racing
• The NTF 20 to follow list including exclusive trainer comments from some of the top yards in the country
• Analysis of last season's novices' and whether they should be stepping up, down or staying the same this term

All of the above for a bargain £20!! 

I must point out at this junction that if you have signed up to the paid subscription list you will already have access to this book in the members area; you do not need to purchase the book here.

Once you have completed the PAYPAL process you will be given a link (link is given to you whilst in PAYPAL so don't leave before clicking it) this will take you to the book where you can download it and save it on to your own computer.

Grab your copy now and get stuck into the Dosage Method as the National Hunt season proper starts to heat up!

 

Happy punting

Ben (NTF)