I've taken a look at the Bumper race on today's Fontwell card and put the field through some Sire and trainer analysis.
I've looked at the Bumper strike rate of each sire with a runner in the race and also looked at the Bumper strike rate of each trainer in the race.
Here are my findings (columns 4, 5 & 6 are the sire stats and 8, 9 & 10 are the trainer stats) -
*Click graphic for a larger view, it becomes clearer!.
I obviously do quite a bit of sire analysis however applying it to bumper fields is not my regular approach.
The interesting one from the above list is LA BELLE AU BOIS. Her sire Val Royal has an excellent 5 year record in bumpers and her trainer has 100% 1 from 1 strike rate in bumpers (that's admittedly not much to go on!). Add to this she is also a course and distance winner and she does become of interest.
Remember this is only experimental but I would certainly look to avoid the trainers that have poor recent records in National Hunt Flat races.
Let's see how this race turns out......
Ben (NTF)
Saturday, 2 October 2010
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1 comments:
Can't complain much with the Bumper result. Winner Fountains Flypast had decent enough sire stats and his trainer A J Honeyball was one of only a handful to have green NHF stats.
1 from 1 100% stats should always ALWAYS be taken with a pinch of salt!!!
This is something I'll be looking at refining for the forthcoming National Hunt season.....
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