| Time for a bit of NTF Bumper bashing!?! |
The Bumper markets are a place often overlooked by the wider betting public.
It's easy to see why; most of the runners are either having their first taste of the racetrack or have limited racecourse experience to their names. As punters we have little (if any) visual evidence or form book stats to go to war with.
It's not an area I delve into with any amount of regularity but if the rest of the betting public are not concentrating their efforts here then maybe we should?
It's very early days for my bumper analysis but I'm thinking I want to attack these races from 3 angles -
- Sire stats - Which sires record the best strike rates in these NHF races?
- Trainer stats - Which trainers record the best strike rates in these NHF races?
- DPA angle - Do these types have an advantage over non DPA horses? It gave us a profitable angle in the Hunter Chases but will it also apply here?
If we take a look at the table below you will see that I've sourced the trainer and sire stats for all 12 runners for today's bumper race at Uttoxeter (5.25). The runners have been sorted into highest to lowest sire strike rate -
**Click on image to enlarge
First thing I want to do is weed out the runners that have poor sire strike rates and trainer strike rates.
Out go THE RIDGE, TANNERS EMPEROR, HIGH KITE, PUMPAN, BUSHLARK and JUST DAVE.
FATHER PROBUS has terrible sire stats but decent trainer stats, however, looking at the horses Dosage stats tells me he does not fit into one of the 3 DPA zones (2-0-5-4-3 (14) / 0.47 / -0.43) so I'm willing to strike him from the last as well.
HELIOPSIS sire (Beneficial) shows a massive level stakes loss, his trainer (Miss V Williams) has an average bumper record and the horses himself does not fit one of the 3 DPA zones; he also gets the boot.
The 4 that we are left with are DEPUTY DOG, BEARS AFFAIR, CHAMPION COURT and MOORLANDS JACK.
Although MOORLANDS JACK'S sire does not have a great S/R he only shows a minimal level stakes loss which suggests his offspring are often overlooked in these markets. Likewise with his trainer Tim Vaughan; he only shows a 13% S/R but it's his LSP that catches my eye (+£37.29) which again suggests his runners may be overlooked in these contest.
CHAMPIONS COURT sire stats may be misleading as it's a relatively small sample to work with and the reason they are showing a profit is because CHAMPIONS COURT himself won his last (and only) bumper start at 25-1 when trained in Ireland by W G McMahon.
DEPUTY DOG is a tricky one as both sire and trainer have decent S/R % but poor Level Stakes returns.
BEARS AFFAIR is also tricky. His sire presenting has a solid enough S/R but you would be positively hemmorrhaging money if you follow his bumper runners blind. On the flip side trainer Nicky Henderson seems to win these races for fun! A 30% S/R is crazy considering the huge sample size we are working with!
Let's now take a look at the final fours Dosage figures to see if they shed any light -
DEPUTY DOG (4-1-7-4-0 (16) / 1.13 / 0.31)
BEARS AFFAIR (0-1-1-4-4 (10) / 0.18 / -1.10)
CHAMPION COURT (4-0-9-7-0 (20+) (20) / 0.74 / 0.05)
MOORLANDS JACK (2-1-17-4-0 (20+) (24) / 0.92 / 0.04)
2 of the final 4 fall into 1 of the DPA zones - CHAMPION COURT and MOORLANDS JACK.
At this stage I'm happy to rule out DEPUTY DOG.
That leaves us 3, unfortunately they are the 3 at the head of the market!
I have a feeling CHAMPION COURT'S stats mat be misleading so I'm also happy to give him a swerve today.
MOORLANDS JACK is the 1 that interests me the most but BEAR'S AFFAIR must be respected; Nicky Henderson's Bumper stats just cannot be ignored.
Obviously this is early days for this NTF Bumper bashing technique (name to be modified?!?!) and we could be heading down the wrong avenue, however, I feel these markets could be exploited by us and when I get the time I will be dipping into them to see if we can find a profitable angle.
Take this method as still in the trial stage and lets see if we are at least firing in the right direction.
Do you guys have any techniques or angles that you use to profit from these types of races?
Drop me a comment and let me know.
Happy Punting
Ben (NTF)
10 comments:
hi ben
off to uttoxeter today (my local meeting)
bears affair/morlands jack
will bet both so as if one of them wins its a profit for me.
here hoping im in the bar afterwards
keep up this great blog
would be lost in the wilderness without it
graham
I must admit Ben that these are races I leave alone these days. I used to bet in them a lot and thought I was doing well but my betlog proved different and showed alarming losses, how could I be so wrong? So these days I swerve them. I'm fascinated to see if you can get an angle and revive my interest
I'm not one for bumpers either normally, but there is no reason why your methods shouldn't combine to good effect.
Enjoyed the video for NTF. You asked people to submit a question to be in with a chance of winning the book. Mine is:
Would you mind re-issuing the video with English subtitles please? I hadn't got a clue what you were talking about! ;-)
Hi Ben
Hope you find the key to unlock these races.
We could all do with knowing when another Cue Card is on the horizon.
Graham - Drinks on you in the bar!! Many thanks for your thoughts on the Blog, appreciate it :)
Alan M
I also don't usually look at these races in great detail but then again I don't think other do either. Lets hope I can conjure up a solid angle for us. It may be that we need the dutch approach, backing both of the 2 I 'settled' on today would have given us profit.....
Craig
Very good! Any more of your lip and I'll set my ginger-Irn Bru charged Haggis to sort ye oot!! Caber in hand!
David D
Solid enough start today. I'm confident we can nail these races although it make take us a bit of time. Would be excellent if we could peak at Cheltenham with a big priced Cue Card style winner!
hi ben
have just come out of the bar!
sorry mate drank yours
will after owe you one when i come north of the border
cheers graham
I used to follow with a degree of success Sadlers Wells mares in bumpers. For some reason the mares were particularly well suited to bumpers and often went off at much longer prices than the colts despite trainer stats etc. Maybe it would be worthwhile you looking to see if there is a sex bias amongst the progeny of some of the better strike rate sires.
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