| Montjeu: He may have mastered the Royal track but his progeny haven't! |
Ascot is not everyone's cup of tea; some horses love the place and some horses loathe the place.
The same can be said of the offspring of some of the top National Hunt sires.
I was taking a look through the sire stats I have at my disposal and I've bashed together a small list of positives and negatives for us to mull over. Not all have runners entered at the royal track today but these stats ring true for the entire season not just today.
Sire positives (last 5 seasons)
PRESENTING
7/54 (S/R 13%) LSP +£37.50
3m+ stats - 5/22 (S/R 23%) LSP +£53.50
Entered today - 3.00 DUNRAVEN STORM - 2 mile Hurdle (possibly not ideal?)
MIDNIGHT LEGEND
5/15 (S/R 33%) LSP +£33.75
Chaser stats - 3/6 (S/R 50%) LSP +£30.25 *All 6 have made the top 3
Entered today - None entered *Let's put this stat in our back pocket and keep it for future reference
DR MASSINI
5/20 (S/R 25%) LSP +£1.75
Chaser stats - 4/10 (S/R 40%) LSP +£7.75
Entered today - 3.40 MASSINI'S MAGUIRE - 3m Chase
Sire negatives (last 5 seasons)
MONTJEU
0/16 (S/R 0%) LSP -£16.00
Entered today - 4.15 HIBIKI - 2m Hurdle & 4.50 I HAVE DREAMED - 2m1f Chase
SUPREME LEADER
3/42 (S/R 7%) LSP -£28.00
Entered today - 3.40 CANT BUY TIME - 3m Chase
BENEFICIAL
2/23 (S/R 9%) LSP -£17.10
Entered today - 1.50 PEURTO AZUL - 2m3f Hurdle & 4.50 FIENDISH FLAME - 2m1f Chase
Obviously I follow sire stats quite closely and the above is just a little taster but it's good to get the eye back in as the National Hunt season warms up.
Ideally you want a solid strike rate and LSP figure rather than an average strike rate and a large LSP figure as that generally signifies a one-off big priced winner. Some people just look at the LSP figures and while that can be profitable you really want a sire that can consistently produce the goods whilst also producing the returns.
These sorts of angles won't produce winners/losers on a daily basis but in the long term they are an alternative source of regular profits.
Best of luck for today
Ben (NTF)
9 comments:
Today's selections from a dosage angle I've devised:
3:25 Wetherby - NACARAT
3:40 Ascot - POSSOL
Plus 2 x CSF POSSOL to beat DOVERS HILL & BURREN LEGEND
4:50 Ascot - SIZING AFRICA
Good Luck
How about Captain Cee Bee @ Naas, shortie of a price but my system says its a strong rank for the Favs today. boredmonkey from Trackscan
Two positive sires and two winners today....well done.
Lee
Good call, Ben on Massini Maguire!
Also because of good reasoning too.
Anon 1
You did better than me in the Charlie Hall!
Out of interest what is your Dosage angle based on?
Cheers
Ben
Anon 2
Captain Cee Bee was actually a bigger price than I would have expected in a 4 runner race. Won well, hope you collected.
Thanks
Ben
Lee & Neil
Cheers guys, stats held up well today. Dr Massini's lot certainly look like ones to keep an eye on at Ascot.
Regards
Ben
Ben, Prince Massini is running at Chepstow tmz and note it is sired by Dr Massini....do you have any thoughts? With Evan in Llancarfan. I think it is interesting bearing in mind his half brother won at Ascot...any thoughts before I take the plunge. ta Boredmonkey.
Hi Boredmonkey
Sorry I missed that comment mate.
Not a huge amount of info to go on for and no real strong pointers either way.
Didn't matter in the end though as it won well enough.
p.s. best place to get a quicker reply from me is over on twitter - @narrowthefield
Cheers
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