 |
| The view from Cleeve hill - Magical! |
Racing at Cheltenham; it's what most of us National Hunt fans relish. We put up with the fashion parade that is Royal Ascot and the twists and turns of Glorious Goodwood in the summer because somewhere, not too far back in our jumping obsessed minds, we know we will soon be discussing at great length which horses will or won't be staying up that famous hill!
This October meeting is fast becoming a tasty little warm up for the National Hunt season proper and plenty of the top trainers are wheeling out some of their better (if not quite top) quality inmates.
Personally I don't get heavily involved at this 2 day meeting. Apart from the 90+ day trainer angle (current FREE NTF guide for all subscribers) I don't really have any innovative angles to get stuck into. If I am going to play in a race at this meeting then I'll do my homework, study the race, apply the trends and look at individual horse preferences. However, nothing stands out at me today from that perspective (and there's not even a NHF race for us to give a bit of NTF bumper bashing too!).
I did have a scan for some angles last night and what I did come up with was rather boring - The Nicholls/Walsh chasers angle.
I initially set out to see if there was any value in opposing this pair but to my surprise they have returned a level stakes profit in the past 5 seasons.
Check the stats -
4 Winners from 10 runners for a 40% S/R and a +£3.50 LSP (4/10 (40%) +£3.50)
I wanted to see if this could be squeezed even further so again I looked at their chasers at Cheltenham in October but this time the ones coming back from a 90+ day break -
3 winners from 6 runners for a 50% S/R and a +£4.50 LSP (3/6 (50%) +£4.50)
We are not going to get rich following this angle but the facts are it has been returning a profit. The sample size is small but that's to be expected, being that there is only the 1 meeting at Cheltenham in October. It's a boring angle and a tad obvious but at the moment the stats are telling us that it shows a profit.
There are two qualifiers today in the shape of REBEL DU MAQUIS (2.45) and MEANUS DANDY (3.55).
Sometimes boring is best.......
Ben (NTF)
7 comments:
Ben
thanks for stat
Profit is profit
cheers
david
Hey Ben
Mike here
Just wondering if you think Ouzbeck is on a winnable mark today?? I have him noted as one to follow on good ground or better and I felt he had an autumn handicap in him??Could that be today or is his mark too high do you think??
Thanks
David
No problem sir.Let's hope it stay profitable over the weekend.
Cheers
Hi Mike
I would have a slight worry he is at the ceiling of his abilities. Ground should be no problem but I'm not convinced he can defy his mark. One of those borderline examples.
hi ben
split the 2 so if one wins a profit is made
the same as i did at uttoxeter
very happy with the first result
looks like the drinks will be lining up on the bar for you
keep up the good work
graham
Hey Ben,
Just had a look throuhg the cards for tomorrow and just wanted to ask a couple of questions...
Are these all the horses running from your October trainers guide tomor??
Pure Anticipation 2.05 Chelt,Rory Boy and Your the Top(depending on price) 2.40 Chelt,Babysitter 3.50 Chelt, Pigeon Island 5.00 Chelt??....
Also I see Martin Lane is riding in the Cesarewitch tomor....should he be backed over this distance????
Mike
Hi Mike
There are a few qualifiers from the guide today, yes. Looks the trainers have gone overboard with excitement for the 1st Cheltenham Saturday of the season!! There are a couple others as well depending on if you prefer the wider stats or the narrowed further stats.
Staying distances are where Martin Lane first came to my attention so I would not put you off backing his mount over this trip although it's not a race I have looked at much.
Cheers
Post a Comment