Will BEH make it a BAD day for the Brits?

Who will follow in the hoof prints of the great Sea The Stars?

 

Paris in the fall - 20 runners - heavy ground - multiple Derby winners - £2,022,655 to the winner....

It can only be Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Day!

Not for the first time in the races history does this year's renewal look a tricky one. 

Is Fame And Glory a better horse than last season?

Will Workforce prove to be as good as his Derby demolition suggested?

Can Youmzain FINALLY get his head in front after 3 seconds?

Can Duncan back up his win in the Prix Foy?

Will Lope De Vega bounce back to his sublime Prix Du Jockey Club form?

Can the Japanese finally land the race they long for?

Will Cape Blanco love or loathe the ground?

Can Sarafina emulate the great Zarkava?

Or will the Prix Niel 1-2 Behkabad & Planteur prove to be the aces in the pack?

If I'm honest I've been through the field and can't nail down a stand-out bet and at the same time I can't confidently rule out a huge amount of the 20 strong field.

So I turn to the NTF trends and stats for some divine inspiration.....

Arc Dosage Trends - 

......which for once I'm not going to bother with! Although this is a race with fairly robust Dosage trends they really don't help us today. I fired today's field through the NTF (Dosage) stats machine and the outcome was that NONE of the field could be confidently ruled out using this angle! The waters remain muddy.....

Arc Extended Trends Analysis - 

1              14/15 had previously won at Grade 1 level

2              14/15 were aged 3 or 4

3              13/15 won last time out

4              13/15 had previously won at 1m4f

5              13/15 had 4 or more previous victories

6              13/15 had no more than 9 previous career starts

7              13/15 had had a 82% w/p S/R

8              12/15 were sired by a Grade 1 winner

9              12/15 ran within past 30 days

10           13/15 were drawn in stall 7 or below

Will the above trends give us a clearer picture? Take a look at the outcome - 

Clear indicators then that we should expect big runs from BEHKABAD, CAPE BLANCO, FAME AND GLORY and the Japanese colt VICTOIRE PISA.

Ground conditions are obviously going to play a huge part in this race and with the ground currently described as VERY SOFT we do need to take a closer inspection at each runners' preference.

BEHKABAD - His own record suggests he should handle conditions well enough although his sire Cape Cross does have markedly better record with his offspring on faster ground.

CAPE BLANCO - Has won on ground with cut in it but connections have expressed concern over this ground. This will be the most testing ground he has faced so far but the Galileo lot seem to handle most conditions and I personally would not be worried.

FAME AND GLORY - Connections again have expressed concern over the ground which surprises me as this boy has already won a Grade 1 - in France - on Heavy?! His maiden was also gained on heavy ground and his sire Montjeu has sired numerous soft/heavy ground winners throughout his stallion career, plenty of them at the top levels.

VICTOIRE PISA - This will be the softest ground the colt has faced and it's unclear if he needed the run last time out or failed to act on the ground (soft). His sire has produced soft ground winners in the past.

If we look at bit closer at the stats BEHKABAD & CAPE BLANCO only fall down on their stall position. They are drawn in stalls 9 & 11 respectively and in fairness this can only be a minor inconvenience and to offset this they have the 2 best French jockeys on-board (in my opinion) in Lemaire & Soumillon.

FAME AND GLORY has been campaigned solely with this race in mind and in my opinion is a better horse than he was this time last year. If Murtagh turns the screw from a long way out the Montjeu colt could be hard to pass.

In my opinion it's between this three.

I actually had a tickle on LOPE DE VEGA earlier on in the week at large prices on the exchanges although I must admit he has quite a task on his hands to land this based on the extended trends. If he can return to his Prix Di Jockey Club form then he has a chance....... 

What do you guys think? 

Do you have any strong opinions on the race?

Best of luck if getting involved today and PUNTING HEUREUX!

Ben (NTF)