Will Quinder Spring into action?

Thunderous skies and plenty of jumping action can only mean one thing; National Hunt racing is taking over!!

Three jumps meetings on a Saturday!

It's so close I can almost taste it; the 2010/11 National Hunt season proper!

The jumping game is really starting to wind up to concert pitch and here at NTF I could not have a had a better start to the month of October (and that's even before the new book and subscription service has been launched!).

Those of you that received the FREE NTF trainers guide for October must be reeling in the profits, yes?

A mere 8 days of October gone and check out the results - 

Positive trainers (4 highlighted in guide) - 

A huge 50% WIN strike rate resulting in a massive £41.75 level stakes profit; and that's at industry SP! If you had taken Betfair SP you would be raking in even more profits and if you have been following me on Twitter you will know that I took a huge 60-1 on one of the winners the night before the race!! It really has been a golden start to October for NTF.

It must also be noted that the Negative trainers have also been doing there job; i.e. not winning!

Negative trainers (5 highlighted in guide) - 

Obviously there are still 3 weeks + of the month to come but we can't complain with the flying start we've had to the month. I'm confident there are still more profits to come our way.

The guide is still available for those of you that are yet to sign up. Simply fill in the your details in the subscription box at the top of the Blog and the guide should be with you in no time.

Chepstow

The Welsh National venue is where the big action is happening today and Champion trainer Paul Nicholls fires his 1st real markers for the 10/11 season. He has 7 runners at the track with 6 of them coming back from a 90 day or more absence and most of them are likely to go off at fairly short odds. 

But what are the stats telling us about their chances?

We'll concentrate on his 90 days + runners. Here is his record with these types at Chepstow in October in the past 5 seasons - 

9 winners from 44 runners at a strike rate of 20.5% producing a level stakes loss of -£9.45.

Pretty much what you would expect and why the bookies love people following him blind; enough winners to keep punters interested but in the long run the bookies come out on top.

What if we split them into Chasers and Hurdlers?

Chasers - 5 winners from 15 runners for a strike rate of 33% producing a level stakes loss of -£3.60

Hurdlers - 4 wins from 29 runners for a strike rate of 14% producing a level stakes loss of -£5.85

Nothing producing a level stakes profit but the chasers do offer up a pretty huge 33% strike rate.

Basically the stats are telling us that the Nicholls yard don't have a massive advantage over any other yard at this time of year with runners having their first start of the season. Their chaser do hit the target at the track with solid regularity but the market seems to be aware of this.

It's tricky squeezing profits out of the champion trainers horses in the long run but the stats are hinting that his 2 chasers at Chepstow - Watuma Bay & Gullible Gordon - should enter our calculations.

Hexham

If you remember back to my Blog post reporting on my visit to the Lucinda Russell yard I told you about 2 of the lesser known inmates that Peter Scudamore suggested we should take an interest in. QUINDER SPRINGS was one of those horses and he runs today in the 3.10 at Hexham. This boy won 6 point-to-points on the spin last term and Scu was confident they could pick up at least a couple of races with him this term. Today's race certainly looks like a winnable opportunity and the feeling is this one is very well handicapped. There is maybe a very small concern over today's trip of 2m4f as he could prove to be a 3m+  horse but they do think highly of this one; he has a great chance of getting his season off to a flyer at Hexham.

Happy punting however you play today and remember and grab the free guide if you haven't already done so!

Ben (NTF)