Will Ruby prove to be a Dark Lover?

Is Ruby the key to bumper success?

Sometimes boring is best?

If boring keeps ticking over tidy little profits then we would be foolish to ignore, no matter how obvious and boring the angle may seem.

Yesterday I highlighted the Walsh/Nicholls October Cheltenham Chasers angle and from 2 runners they produced a 9/4 winner and a 11/4 4th. A simple angle and profit's were made and these are the little nuggets of gold we need in our punting armoury to make profits from our betting approach.

I use a number of these types of angles throughout the season and although I will be continually highlighting some of these on the Blog there will be some that are saved primarily for the forthcoming NTF National Hunt 10/11 subscription service.

If you haven't already done so you can still download the complete Dosage & trends video and guide that I compiled as a free giveaway from here.

There is plenty to get stuck into today from both the 90+ day trainers guide angle (if you don't already have it then simply sign up in the updates box at the top of the Blog for instant access) and the Walsh/Nicholls Chasers angle. I will leave this up to your own discretion as to which, if any, you decide to follow today (you could use both if you wish) as for today's Blog post I want to get back to our NTF bumper bashing analysis. I really want us to nail this angle, I want us to gain an edge. I feel it's a market that many punters either don't care about or just simply don't put the time in to find an angle; hopefully this leaves the door open for us!

Here is a quick re-cap of the current approach I'm looking to utelise to attack these races -

• Sire stats - Which sires record the best Strike Rates in these NHF races?
• Trainer stats - Which trainers record the best Strike Rates in these NHF races?
• The DPA angle - Do these types hold an advantage over non DPA horse?

The DPA angle could be particularly interesting for this specific race as 6 of the last 10 winners fitted into one of the 3 DPA zones, including the last 5 winners.

If we take a look at the table below you will see that I've sourced the trainer and sire stats for all 9 runners for today's bumper race at Cheltenham (5.35). The runners have been sorted into highest to lowest sire strike rate -

**Click on image to enlarge

First thing I can see is that this looks competitive; plenty of green on that table for trainer stats.

First we need to do is weed out the runners that have poor Strike Rates in either of the sections.

Out go ROBELLO, KORALSDARLING & ACCORDINTOLAWRENCE. The trainer Strike Rates are pretty miserable so we will take it as unlikely they will be able to improve that against some of the strongest stables around.

The 6 we are left with give us slightly conflicting stats so I'm going to add another 2 filters here; trainer overall NHF strike rates at Cheltenham and trainer overall records at Cheltenham in October.

Here is how they 6 trainers left stack up -

**Click on image to enlarge

Jonjo O'Neill has a miserable bumper record at Cheltenham so his VICO ROAD gets the boot. Unfortunately that also means we say goodbye to the sire with the best S/R and the only sire with a Green P/L column.

Could it be that sire strike rates are not the way to go here?

Nigel Twiston Davies is also let down by his Cheltenham bumper stats so I think it's time to drop SYBARITE.

If we are to truly to test the DPA angle then we must also drop LETS GET SERIOUS from our list. Again there are conflicting stats for us to work with but overall there is enough for us to drop this one today.

That leaves us with 3 - DARK LOVER, SIR BENFRO & TEAFORTHREE.

TEAFORTHREE is interesting from a trainer angle but check the Cheltenham bumper stats of the mighty A P McCoy - 0-24 (0% S/R) -£24.00 LSP.

With the sire OSCAR producing mammoth losses I think we also need to drop TEAFORTHREE from the list.

So Jockey stats? Is this ANOTHER angle we need to consider in our bumper bashing angle?!?

At the moment we are left with a shootout between P Nicholls & W Goldsworthy and Walsh & Johnson.

Jockey stats (Cheltenham bumpers) - 

Ruby Walsh - 4-14 (29% S/R) +£6.50 LSP

Richard Johnson - 4-23 (17% S/R) +10.88 LSP

Both produce decent LSP profits but it's Ruby that comes out on top with regards to the Strike Rate.

From other records that I keep I also know that the sire of DARK LOVER (Zinaad) is currently producing an overall level stakes profit from the past 5 season's stats. He generally produces small crops (maybe he's lazy in the sack?!?!) but they tick along at a small profit.

So tentatively we settle on joint favourite DARK LOVER.

I can now see why these markets are not dealt with in great detail by many punters!!!

We seem to have gone through quite a few different angles today but if we want to nail these races this is what we are going to have to do. I'm not one to shirk from a challenge and if we are wrong today then we will learn from this and use the knowledge we have gained to our advantage next time.

I am interested in your own thoughts on this bumper bashing technique. I had a few responses before but keep them coming today.

Essentially we are looking to learn -

Will Dosage help us in finding bumper winners?

Will sire analysis help us find bumper winners?

Will trainer analysis help us find bumper analysis?

and now...

Will jockey analysis help us find bumper winners?

One way or another we will nail this angle.

Best of luck with any bets you may place today

Ben (NTF)