Sind die Deutschen Wert in Cheltenham?

This German bred certainly enjoyed his time around Prestbury Park

What's in the suffix and can we profit from it?

First up what the hell am I talking about I hear you ask?!

Well I'm talking about the letters that appear in brackets after a horse's name.

Take a look at the following - 

KAUTO STAR (FR) - This is telling us Kauto Star is a French Bred (FR)

DENMAN (IRE) - This is telling us that Denman is Irish Bred (IRE)

WELL CHIEF (GER) - This is telling us that Well Chief is German Bred (GER)

So what I'm looking at are the letters after a horse's name that tells us where the horse was bred. This isn't one of those angles that I have used in any great depth although I have skimmed the surface of it in recent seasons.

The main area I have used this angle to my advantage is at Kempton's Xmas meeting. A few years back I noticed that there seemed to be a large amount of French Bred (FR) winners at the meeting. As I'm always on the lookout for fresh angles I started digging; I much prefer to have the solid evidence to back up my 'thoughts'.

If we look back at the previous 5 seasons of Kempton's Xmas fixture (4 actually as 2005 was run at Sandown) we can see the French breds rule the winners' enclosure -

Kempton 2006 - 2009 - December - 48 races in total

(FR) Bred - 22 winners (46% of races)

Strike rate - 22 winners from 108 runners - 20% S/R - LSP +£92.07

(IRE) Bred - 14 winners (29% of races)

Strike rate - 14/149 - 8% S/R - LSP -£112.32

(GB) Bred - 8 winners (17% of races)

Strike rate - 8/134 - 6% S/R - LSP -£83.50

(USA) Bred - 3 winners (6% of races)

Strike rate - 3/28 - 11% S/R - LSP -£5.50

(GER) Bred - 1 winner (2% of races)

Strike rate - 1/17 - 6% S/R - LSP -/+£0.00

For whatever reason it's pays to be on the side of the French-breds at Xmas time at Kempton.

With these stats in mind I decided to go digging into the same angle for this weekend's 3 day PaddyPower meeting at Cheltenham.

Cheltenham 2005 - 2009 - November - 89 races in total

(IRE) Bred - 53 winners (60% of races)

Strike rate - 53/544 - 10% S/R - LSP -£184.92

(FR) Bred - 18 winners (20% of races)

Strike rate - 18/224 - 8% S/R - LSP -£98.01

(GB) Bred - 9 winners (10% of races)

Strike rate - 9/247 - 4% S/R - LSP -£152.38

(GER) Bred - 7 winners (8% of races)

Strike rate - 7/36 - 19% S/R - LSP +£22.08

(USA) Bred - 2 winners (2% of races)

Strike rate - 2/36 - 6% S/R - LSP +£17.20

Clearly it's the Irish bred runners that rule the November Cheltenham meeting with a huge 60% of the races going their way. Admittedly they also have the huge majority share when it comes to number of runners so from that perspective it's tricky to nail down an actually angle to utilise their superiority.

The only real angle that strikes me from the (IRE) stats is looking at the runners in the lower band of the betting and specifically the runners with an sp of 6/1 or less. In the past five seasons this would have generated 106 bets with 32 winners giving an S/R of 30% and a LSP of +£24.08. Still quite a lot of bets and although the S/R is decent it is quite a time consuming angle.

The stats that interest me most are those of the German Bred runners. They may have only had 7 winners but they have also only had 36 runners, giving an impressive S/R of 19% and a healthy LSP of +£22.08. It seems that a majority of punters are still overlooking those runners with (GER) after their names.

Certainly something for us to ponder over.......

You may also want to consider the following angle  for horses to think twice about putting your hard earned on. 

(GB) runners at 3m+

1/59 (2% S/R) LSP -£54.00

This bunch seem to struggle to say the least!

I spend quite a lot of time digging through my databases looking for profitable angles (or angles to avoid), it's not always a productive task but it's worth it when I uncover information like the above.

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Ben (NTF)