Costello Chasing Gold....

In what is looking an increasingly open Cheltenham Gold Cup could an improving handicapper called Midnight Chase with a clear fondness for the undulations of Prestbury Park steal the show?

His regular pilot DOUGIE COSTELLO will certainly be hoping the Neil Mulholland trained 9yo continues his progress and at the same time continues to put himself firmly in the minds of the racing world.

Since Costello made the move from Ireland to Britain around 10 years ago he has found himself with the solid job of regular pilot for Yorkshire based trainer John Quinn. However, 27yo Costello is a jockey that picks up rides for a vast array of stables, this season alone he has ridden for 44 different yards with some notable performances on horses such as the aforementioned MIDNIGHT CHASE as well as WAYWARD PRINCE, MONET'S GARDEN and I'MONCLOUDNINE, to name but a few.

But where can we profit from the lad?

Where can we back him with confidence and where should we avoid him like the plague?

Can he be relied upon to bring home the bacon when the money is down?

Let's find out - 

TRAINERS

JOHN QUINN

As mentioned already it is the John Quinn yard that supply most ammo to Costello and impressively the combo shows a decent Level Stakes Profit on all rides - 

382 rides | 61 winners | 16% S/R | +£26.69 LSP

If we look a bit closer we can improve those bare figures a touch.

If we narrow down the rides to only those that started at SP 9/1 or less we get the following - 

238 rides | 52 winners | 22% S/R | +£30.69 LSP

Solid stats from quite a large sample size.

NEIL MULHOLLAND

When Costello gets the leg up on one of the yards chasers we really should take notice - 

58 rides | 15 winners | 26% S/R | +£31.14 LSP

This partnership is still providing value despite the success of Midnight Chase and we would be wise to keep them on side, especially when the 2 team up over fences.

MRS L B NORMILE

The jockey has not ridden for the yard a great deal recently but should he take a mount from the yard sometime soon we should definitely give it a closer look - 

25 rides | 5 winners | 20% S/R | +£77.50 LSP

This is a duo that has been massively overlooked when they team up.

ALISTAIR WHILLANS

Costello has only had a handful of rides for the small yard but when he is on one he has made it pay - 

9 rides | 3 winners | 33% S/R | +£31.00 LSP

To further bolster this already impressive partnerships stats Costello has steered all 9 mounts home in the first 5.

Not all positive though and it's probably best to be wary when the jockey teams up with the next two yards - 

BRIAN STOREY

48 rides | 1 winner | 2% S/R | -£41.50 LSP

J J LAMBE

14 rides | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£14.00 LSP

Tracks

AINTREE

54 rides | 11 winners | 20% S/R | +£33.88 LSP

The Liverpool track is one where Costello thrives at although none of the 11 winners have been over the National fences.

TOWCESTER

16 rides | 5 winners | 31% S/R | +£15.75 LSP

Limited visits to the track but when he does make the journey take note.

WINCANTON

19 rides | 4 winners | 21% S/R | +£0.50 LSP

Decent enough stats on their own but they can be improved a touch if we only look at rides at 2m5f or less - 

14 rides | 4 winners | 29% S/R | +£5.50 LSP

All 4 winners have come at the shorter distances.

NEWCASTLE

Overall stats for the jockey at Gosforth Park are OK but it's his bumper rides that I want to highlight here - 

10 rides | 5 winners | 50% S/R | +£14.10 LSP

Robust stats on show in bumpers and ones that look even better when we only consider his mounts for Alan Swinbank - 

4 rides | 3 winners | 75% S/R | +£6.60 LSP

Again there are negatives for the jockey and these are just as important for us to consider - 

SOUTHWELL

47 rides | 1 winner | 2% S/R | -£41.00 LSP

HEREFORD

30 rides | 1 winner | 3% S/R | -£18.00 LSP

CARTMEL

44 rides | 2 winners | 5% S/R | -£32.50 LSP

MUSSELBURGH

97 rides | 6 winners | 6% S/R | -£59.09 LSP

The Musselburgh Strike Rate dips even further if we only consider Costello's mounts in handicaps - 

49 rides | 1 victory | 2% S/R | -£40.00 LSP

Certainly an area we should be cautious of when looking to back the jockey.


Months

Not generally an angle I consider much on the jockey front but there is a rather worrying summer trend for Costello - 

All rides in July

94 rides | 4 winners | 4% S/R | -£51.50 LSP

Does he not like the sun on his back?!? It's more than likely the yards he rides for at that time of the year don't have their strings in peak condition but whatever the cause of his poor record it's there and we should be aware of it.

All non-handicap chases

Overall the jockey has a solid record in these types of races - 

140 rides | 23 winners | 16% S/R | +£42.02 LSP

The strike rate on these types of runners can be improved significantly if we look at his record when riding favourites in these contests - 

16 rides | 8 winners | 50% S/R | +£1.93 LSP

The LSP isn't much to shout about but a 50% Strike Rate is impressive and if we consider all 16 of these mounts have finished in the top 3 it's safe to say Costello is a good man to have on top of a favourite in a non-handicap chase.

To me Dougie Costello is one of the most underrated jockeys on the National Hunt circuit and surely it can't be long before more of the top yards start looking in his direction, especially if he can guide Midnight Chase to further glory.

Ben (NTF)