On-Fire Maguire!

He is relatively tall for a jockey (5ft 11in), the minimum weight he has managed to slim down to in recent seasons is 10st 5lbs and he has recently acquired the unhealthy habit of picking up an injury or two! Despite these minor 'inconveniences' Jason Maguire has stepped up from the role of a potential journeyman jockey to sit in that small band of top class pilots that occupy the positions directly behind Messrs McCoy and Johnson in the jump jockeys table.

It certainly helps to be connected to the ever flourishing Donald McCain Jnr & Gordon Elliott yards but Maguire still needs to have the 'skills to pay the bills' in terms of steering his mounts to success. Last season was easily his best in terms of numbers of winners (108) and quality of winners and despite an injury interrupted season this term Maguire has already bagged 55 winners, including a Grade 1 on McCain's stable star PEDDLERS CROSS.

With the Maguire star firmly on the ascent it's prime time to take a look at where us punters can profit from his talents. I want to know when to back the lad and when to avoid him. Is he better riding hurdlers or chasers? Who are the trainers that supply him with the most profitable ammo? What tracks does he know like the back of his hand and which ones does he still require his sat nav for?

Lets get started.

Trainers

In recent seasons it has been the Donald McCain, Gordon Elliott, Kim Bailey and Jim Old (although that avenue has not been used as much recently) stables that have supplied the majority of rides.

Donald McCain

Probable the most over bet of any Maguire/trainer combo but if we look hard enough we can dig out some interesting angles such as when the pair team up with chasers in handicaps over 24f or further -

96 rides | 22 winners | 23% S/R | +£26.72 LSP

Kim Bailey

The Bailey yard have had somewhat of a resurgence in recent weeks and Maguire has been an integral part of the process. Again it's the chasing angle that catch my eye and this time I'm looking at any Maguire/Bailey Chasers that start with an SP of 6/1 or less - 

39 rides | 15 winners | 39% S/R | +£25.12 LSP

Inside this trend there is an even stronger one existing. If we look at only the Maguire/Bailey Chasers that start with an SP of 6/1 or less AND are having their first run for 150 days or more we get the following - 

7 rides | 5 winners | 71% S/R | +£13.25 LSP

If Kim Bailey is confident he has one of his first time out chasers in prime condition then he wants Maguire on board! We would do well to keep our eyes peeled for these types in future.

Gordon Elliott

The Maguire/Elliott juggernaut is most productive at my local track Perth but that angle only really comes into play in the summer months. The angle I want to highlight today is when the 2 team up with chasers over 20f or further - 

39 rides | 12 winners | 31% S/R | +£15.09

Tracks

AYR

Although not having as many rides at the track as you may expect AYR has been a happy hunting ground in recent seasons for the jockey -  

31 rides | 11 winners | 36% S/R | +£1.27 LSP

The LSP isn't much to shout about but digging deeper into the stats provides us with an even more robust 'sub' angle. 

Look at Maguire's record at Ayr when riding in non-handicap hurdle races - 

10 rides | 6 winners | 60% S/R | +£ 3.85 LSP

The record is 8/10 (80% S/R) for top 3 finishes and 5 of the 6 winners have come for Donald McCain; quite an interesting little angle for us to put in the notebook.

UTTOXETER

The Staffordshire track shows clear profit for all of Maguire's rides in recent seasons - 

210 rides | 40 winners | 19% S/R | +£24.23 LSP

We can improve the stats a tad more by looking at only his Hurdle runners - 

113 rides | 22 winners | 20% S/R | +£34.92 LSP

Uttoxeter is definitely a place where we should look closely at Maguire's mounts.


HAYDOCK

Another track that shows clear profit on all of the jockeys rides - 


94 rides | 22 winners | 23% S/R | +£24.79 LSP


Once more we can improve the stats to find a sweet spot. 


If we only look at chasers at distances of 20f and further we get the following - 


27 rides | 8 winners | 30% S/R | +£26.58 LSP

Maguire seems to be acquiring a knack at the longer distances with his chase mounts.


The jockey isn't a dab hand at all tracks on the National Hunt circuit, take a look at the following clutch of tracks where it pays to think twice before backing his mounts - 


SANDOWN


35 rides | 1 winner | 3% S/R | -£24.00 LSP


DONCASTER


48 rides | 2 winners | 4% S/R | -£20.67 LSP


STRATFORD


47 rides | 2 winners | 4% S/R | -£36.62 LSP


CHELTENHAM


92 rides | 4 winners | 4% S/R | -£44.50 LSP


AINTREE

93 rides | 5 winners | 5% S/R | -£58.02 LSP

The Cheltenham & Aintree stats are particularly interesting now that he is likely to be riding higher class animals than he has at past meetings (in theory anyway). Will he be able to improve his track stats at this seasons Cheltenham and Aintree festivals?



Favourites


With Maguire, McCain & Elliott all on the up it's becoming more usual to see favourites ridden/trained by them. Is it profitable to follow these favourites and does Maguire have the knack of getting them home in front when the money is down?


Simply following all the favourites he rides would be an easy way to the poor house, however, dig a little deeper and we will find one group of favourites the jockey has an exceptional record with - 


Favs in non-handicap hurdles when ridden by J Maguire


130 rides | 68 winners | 52% S/R | +£14.18 LSP


A 52% strike rate is phenomenal! When the money is down in the non-handicap hurdles Maguire certainly doesn't buckle under the weight of money!


Jason Maguire may not be able to get amongst McCoy and Johnson in the jockeys championship but he is certainly proving he has what it takes to become 'best of the rest'. If we keep our wits about us we can find plenty of angles to turn Maguire's talents into our own punting profits.


On-fire Maguire? I'd say so!


Ben (NTF)