Paul Townend: The New Ruby Walsh?

When Ruby Walsh took his now obligatory November/December injury break (no pun intended!) it was a case of 'Who the hell is going to fill his shoes on Paul Nicholls high profile rides?'. Would it be A P McCoy ("but his style won't suit Kauto/Denman!") or would Sam Thomas step back into the picture ("but we all remember what happened last time he stepped in for Ruby!?"), would Paul Nicholls let Noel Fehily take on all major rides ("is he really good enough? Is his wrist healed enough?!?). Such was the press and punters obsession with this "dilemma" it more or less became its own little soap opera! However, Paul Nicholls wasn't the only high profile trainer to suffer from Ruby's untimely injury, Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins also relies on Mr Walsh for the majority of his stable stars. No such drama's on the Emerald Isle though. A simple phone call to a young jockey that is fast making a big name for himself over in Ireland, Paul Townend, and it was a case of "Ruby's out for a bit so let's just crack on with the job in hand, Paul you're up".

Described by some as "the best rider in Ireland", "the next big thing", "a future champion", "the natural successor to Tony McCoy & Ruby Walsh" and "more talented than Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy put together", 20 year old Townend has an army of admirers on both sides of the Irish Sea.

If I'm entirely honest these types of comments are not what I'm here for. When someone starts making a name for themselves and punters start latching on to their talents I want to stick them under the spotlight and have a dig about to see where I can profit from those skills. If I can highlight his sweet spots and negative zones then instead of simply sitting back and admiring the lad I can instead home in on some profitable angles.

Track angles

A quick look tells me that there are no obvious positive angles for Townend at any tracks. That's not to say he won't develop a strong bias at any track as his career progresses but at the moment it's his 'weak' tracks I want to concentrate on.

This first thing that strikes me is that he is yet to ride a winner over jumps outside of his native Ireland. So far he has had 36 rides over here but has failed to score with any of them.

P Townend rides outside of Ireland

36 rides / 0 wins / 0% S/R / -£36.00 LSP

Within that wider stat is his Cheltenham record which at the moment looks pretty dismal -

26 rides / 0 wins / 0% S/R / -£26.00 LSP

In his defence he is yet to sit on a really strong festival fancy at the festival itself but the fact he has only managed to get 2 of that 26 placed (both 3rd) is a slight concern.

The big question is will he get the chance to ride the likes of ZAIDPOUR or MIKAEL D'HAGUENET at this year's Cheltenham Festival?

3 other tracks that young Townend is yet to really get his eye at are - 

Tipperary

23 rides / 1 win / 4% S/R / -£19.00 LSP

Sligo

21 rides / 1 win / 5% S/R / -£18.50 LSP

Listowel

35 rides / 2 wins / 6% S/R / -£17.00 LSP

Trainer

Willie Mullins is the trainer that supplies Townend with the majority of his mounts and the overall record when the 2 combine is pretty solid - 

306 rides / 72 wins / 24% S/R / -£19.28 LSP

If we look at the rides Townend has taken for other yards we see a big dip in strike rate and LSP - 

722 rides / 62 wins / 9% S/R / -£349.88 LSP

It should come as no real surprise that the young jockeys most potent firepower comes from the strongest yard in the country.

Starting Price (SP)

Now that punters are becoming familiar with the name Paul Townend we can expect a number of his rides to be starting at shorter prices than they maybe should be i.e. over bet. However, it looks like the value has not yet been completely squeezed out of the man from Co. Cork's rides. A quick look at the stats for his rides with an SP of 3/1 or under tells us he has an impressive S/R as well as turning a decent enough LSP when riding horses that are well fancied in the market - 


189 rides / 77 wins / 41% S/R / +£21.67 LSP


Now if we apply the same rule to messrs McCoy & Walsh we will see just how well Townend stacks up on this score - 


A P McCoy all rides with SP 3/1 or less


2174 rides / 800 wins / 37% S/R / -£231.80 LSP


R Walsh all rides with SP 3/1 or less


1895 rides / 722 wins / 38% S/R / -£155.12 LSP


Obviously McCoy & Walsh have a much larger volume of rides but the fact they make huge level stakes losses tell us that when they are on a 'fancied' ride punters have been significantly over reacting and sucking the value well and truley out of their mounts. Paul Townend is not yet at this stage and the fact he hits the target with a massive 41% of his 3/1 and under mounts AND still returns a level stakes profit makes this an angle of significant interest for us.

Favourites

Keeping with the short priced rides of Paul Townend it has also come to my attention that he has a phenomenal strike-rate when riding the favourite in non-handicap hurdle races - 


P Townend favs in non-handicap hurdles


73 rides / 35 wins / 48% S/R / +£11.34 LSP


48% strike-rate is an extraordinary level to be performing at for one so young! Yes he has recently had the talent of such machines as Mourad & Hurricane Fly to steer home but a near 50% strike rate on favs is pretty special.


Again if we look at Walsh & McCoy we can see Mr Townend is more than keeping up with the 2 legends on this angle (he's actually ahead of them both!) - 


A P McCoy favs in non-handicap hurdles

655 rides / 305 wins / 47% S/R / -£32.62 LSP


R Walsh favs in non-handicap hurdles

656 rides / 295 wins / 45% S/R / -£30.11 LSP

Volume of rides is obviously greater again but where as the profit in the McCoy & Walsh angle has been crushed there is potentially still profits to be made by following young Townend in these types of contests.

It's clear even at this relatively early stage of his career Paul Townend is indeed doing his best to match strides with the top clutch of jockeys that are currently in the saddle. He still has plenty of improvement yet to come and if he is to keep climbing to the top then he has to keep those strike-rates firing at the same consistent level. If we keep a track on the young lads stats then we will find angles where we can profit, however, if he if he does indeed keep rising to the top there will be a day all value will be crushed from his fancied mounts by the wider betting public. We just need to keep ahead of the game so we can recognise when that day comes....


I would like to leave you with this final thought - 


Should Paul Townend keep the ride on current Champion Hurdle favourite Hurricane Fly in the big race itself the horse would not only have the Montjeu sire stat to overcome (0 wins from 42 at Cheltenham) he would also have an interesting jockey stat to overcome (0 wins from 26 at Cheltenham); a little something to ponder over me thinks.....


Ben (NTF)