Inexperience: No Handicap?

I'm a bit surprised Gordy had to pull out of the Charity race due to 'weight issue's'.......

One of the angles that I look to utilise is trainers sending their chasers straight into handicaps for their debut chase run. There are some trainers that are rather adept at placing their young chasers in handicaps on their chasing debut and it's always worth taking a look when the situation arises.

Two trainers that are quite high on my list at the moment are Nigel Twiston Davies and Alan King.

Here are their associated statistics - 

TWISTON DAVIES - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

80 runners | 17 winners | 21% S/R | +£35.81 LSP

The strike rate improves when we look at these types only in the month of October - 

26 runners | 8 winners | 31% S/R | +£8.62 LSP

A KING - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

38 runners | 10 winners | 26% S/R | +£16.00 LSP

GORDON ELLIOTT is also starting to appear on the radar although at the moment it's on a smaller scale than the previous 2 - 

5 runners | 3 winners | 60% S/R | +£16.00 LSP

The Elliott angle is possibly the most interesting as it could be that it's currently skimming under the radar.

From this trainer/debut/handicap angle I decided to have a little dig about and try and approach it from an alternative direction; I set about researching to see if instead of trainers it would also work for sires. 

Are certain sire's offspring more capable than others at winning first time up over fences when they are pitched straight into a handicap?

My logic behind this was that some sires produce markedly better chasers than they do hurdlers so if a chase debutant was being thrown in to a handicap off its hurdle rating then there is every chance it will start it's chasing career 'well in'. 

It's early days for my research but so far I have uncovered a handful of sires that suggest their offspring may be worth following when taking their first chasing steps in a handicap - 

MIDNIGHT LEGEND -  Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

20 runners | 7 winners | 35% S/R | +£29.50 LSP

This is the one that interests me the most as Midnight Legend is a sire that gives quite a few profitable angles and is also I sire I like a lot. The 35% strike-rate is very eye-catching indeed.

FLEMENSFIRTH - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

31 runners | 6 winners | 19% S/R | +£72.67 LSP 

The LSP is really interesting and it actually comes from a few big priced winners (as opposed to just one 66/1 winner + a few shorties) and suggests these types are regularly being over looked in the market. It's also interesting to note there are also a few double priced placed horses in the sample as well.

CLOUDINGS - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

23 runners | 6 winners | 26% S/R | +£25.50 LSP

A less fashionable NH sire maybe but on this angle alone he should be of interest to us.

As I mentioned this is an angle I'm still looking into but the early sign are encouraging and it's definitely something I want to look deeper into.

I also decided to combine the angles above and I came up with this rather interesting angle - 

A KING trained MIDNIGHT LEGEND offspring - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

3 runners | 3 winners | 100% S/R | +£17.00 LSP

Is this something that is likely to continue? I wouldn't count on it but for the moment at least it makes for pretty interesting reading!!

2011 NTF Cheltenham Festival Guide

The doors are now open!!

http://www.narrowthefield.co.uk/

21 of the 27 races at next week's Cheltenham Festival will be covered in the guide where I will use a mix of Trends analysis and Dosage stats to pinpoint the likely winners and lively outsiders.

Remember the beauty of my guides is that you don't just have to follow my selections. Each race is analysed over 5 pages and you can see exactly how I came to my own selections. If you disagree with my selection and think you can put the stats to better use then the guides are set up so that is also an option for you.

Most people that purchased last season's guide followed my own selections and that resulted in over 80 pts profit at Betfair SP. However, some people also used the guide to find winners or placed horses that I hadn't highlighted. As I mentioned this is how the guides are set out - you can back my selections, you can back your own selections based on the stats or you can mix and match as you please.

The first draft of the guide will be sent out on Friday (incomplete) with full analysis being available the evening before each day of the festival. I personally like to get a complete picture of the race (exactly who will be turning up, how the race is likely to shape up, what the ground will be like) so this is why complete analysis won't be with you until the evening before.

When you do purchase this year's guide you will be able to download a trainer guide that was sent out to my National Hunt subscribers at the start of the month that also has a section on 90+ days runners at the Cheltenham Festival itself. You will then receive the first draft of the 2011 guide this Friday.

The 6 races that are not analysed by myself are - 

The Cross Country Chase - The Mares Hurdle - The Centenary Novices Chase - The Jewson Chase - The Foxhunters Chase - The Martin Pipe Hurdle

For one reason or another these races are not suitable for my methods.

All others races get the full NTF treatment!

Follow the link and grab the guide - 

http://www.narrowthefield.co.uk/

£24.97 for the best alternative Cheltenham guide on the planet!!

Grab your copy before the places fill up.

Ben (NTF)