Perth Pointers: Trainers Stats for Perth's April Festival

Perth Races have 14 varied and exciting fixtures to choose from in 2011, including both daytime and evening fixtures. Each date in our diary offers entertainment or live music, along with six or seven exciting races. Five to six hours of thrills for the whole family. Remember that kids under 18 get in free when accompanied by a paying adult so a sporting day out in the beautiful Perthshire countryside has never been better value!

The above exert was taken from the official Perth racecourse web-site. Basically what they are saying is if you are in the Perth(-ish) area or are able to travel to the track and have kids under 18 in your house then DON'T make them sit down this Friday and watch the bloody Royal Wedding!! Get off your arse and drag them along to Perth racecourse for FREE! It's much better to watch your money go down the drain on a slow horse than it is to sit and watch your money being spend on a lavish ceremony for 2 people you have never met!!

Hell if you read this post you might even find an angle or 2 to allow you to turn a profit at Perth races!

If I'm 100% honest Perth racecourse has never been a happy punting ground for me. Probably because I tend to go for a day out rather than a serious betting day or maybe I'm just looking for value amongst the rags when there really isn't any - 

At the past 5 Perth April festival's (2006 - 2010) there have only been THREE winners priced at 20-1 or bigger; 1 at 20-1, 1 at 25-1 and 1 at 33-1. 

So from the 99 winners at the festival over the past 5 seasons only 3 have started at 20-1 or bigger. On the win side at least the outsiders really are 'the outsiders'. Without digging into it in great detail I would assume the bigger priced horses come from the smaller yards and they really struggle to match the firepower of the bigger yards that tend to make the journey north for this 3 day extravaganza.

But which yards should we be keeping an eye on?

Who specifically targets this meeting and has their troops in tip-top shape?

*Stats from 2006-2010 - LSP to Betfair SP - Using Proform Software

NIGEL TWISTON DAVIES

The Naunton based trainer has recorded the most victories of any trainer at recent Perth festivals and regularly makes the trip up North to plunder the prize money -  

9 winners | 50 runners | 18% S/R | +£3.48 LSP | Win & Place 22/50 44% S/R

This is an angle that is not exactly unknown and it's safe to say the profits are going to be on the skinny side.

However, if we dig a little further we can narrow the NTD runners down to a couple of areas that show a healthier return - 

NTD runners in NON-handicap races

6 winners | 17 runners | 35% S/R | +£13.36 LSP | Win & Place 13/17 - 76% S/R

The yard had 5 runners in non-handicap races last year and their form figures read - 1-2-8-2-1.

Certainly an angle to consider over the next 3 days.

Another angle to consider is to only look at the yards hurdler and bumper runners - 

NTD runners in only hurdles & bumpers

7 winners | 27 runners | 26% S/R | +£19.79 LSP

NTD runners in only Chases

2 winners | 23 runners | 9% S/R | -£16.32 LSP

For whatever reason the yards chasers don't seem to excel at Perth in April.

VENETIA WILLIAMS

It's quite a hike from her base in King's Caple but she isn't sending her runners up just to take in the scenery - 

6 winners | 22 runners | 29% S/R | +£20.28 LSP | Win & Place 11/22 50% S/R

Similar to Twiston-Davies it is the Williams hurdlers that we should be concentrating on -  

5 winners | 12 runners | 42% S/R | +£19.78 LSP | Win & Place 7/12 58% S/R

GORDON ELLIOTT

Absolutely no surprise to see our Irish friend up near the top of the trainer's table and others yards must be worried that Elliott is starting to take over at the track - 

6 winners | 25 runners | 24% S/R | +£12.57 LSP | Win & Place 17/25 - 68% S/R

There is currently no stand-out angle for the Elliott Yard at Perth except for when Jason Maguire gets the leg up (4/8 - 50% win | 7/8 88% Win & Place) but tomorrow it is a certain A P McCoy that gets the leg up on the yards horses for the first time at Perth in April. It should be noted the pairing have an overall Perth record of 3 wins from 7 rides.

VICTOR DARTNALL

The Devon based trainer does not plunder this meeting with any great regularity (no runners last term) but when he does make the long trip we should sit up and pay attention - 

5 winners | 14 runners | 35% S/R | +£16.50 LSP | Win & Place 8/14 - 57% S/R

All 5 winners have come over hurdles - 

5 winners | 10 runners | 50% S/R | +£20.40 LSP | Win & Place 6/10 - 60% S/R

It should be noted that although he has not had any chase winners 2 of the 3 he has sent up have finished 2nd (14/1 & 11/4).

We he makes the long trip we can be sure he has his horses primed and ready to go.

I R Ferguson

If Mr Ferguson makes the trip over the Irish Sea from Ballymena then we can be sure he means business - 

4 winners | 11 runners | 36% S/R | +£80.01 LSP | Win & Place 5/11 - 45% S/R

Closer scrutiny of his runners tell us that his non-handicap runners have been the ones to be have been on at recent festivals - 

4 winners | 7 runners | 57% S/R | +£84.01 LSP

It should also be noted that he only sent 2 over to the meeting last term and both of them won (7/1 & 9/4)

For every positive there is generally a negative and here are a handful of yards that have struggled at the meeting in recent seasons - 

Phillip Hobbs

1 winner | 19 runners | 5% S/R | -£2.00 LSP | Win & Place 6/19 - 32% S/R

Not terrible stats but for one of the most powerful in the country they maybe don't score with as much regularity as one would hope.

Sue Bradburne

1 winner | 40 runners | 3% S/R | -£32.00 LSP | Win & Place 10/40 - 25% S/R

Not far for the yards runners to travel but they generally struggle to compete with the big boys. Place record is decent enough however.

...and 2 yards I really would not have expected to be near the bottom of the list - 

Lucinda Russell

1 winner | 47 runners | 2% S/R | -£35.00 LSP | Win & Place 10/47 - 21% S/R

The yards local track but winners have been hard to come by at Perth in April.

Jim Goldie

0 winners | 13 runners | 0% S/R | -£13.00 LSP | Win & Place 3/13 - 23% S/R

To be fair to big Jim he has not sent a great deal of runners to the track but it is worth bearing in mind his lower than expected strike-rate.

Although I would never suggest taking these types of stats as gospel they are a good pointer as to which yards are likely to be targeting the meeting and which yards maybe don't have the correct ammo for Perth in the spring time.

Join the FREE NTF updates service 

To be kept up to date with all things NTF then simply fill in your details in the form at the top right of the Blog. There will be a couple of FREE gifts waiting for you when you confirm your subscription.....

Raising money for Greatwood

Just a quick note to highlight NTF reader Ian Taylor as he prepares to cycle from John O'Groats to Lands End in Nine days! It is all for the Greatwood Charity which I'm sure most of you will be aware of and if you feel you want to help out and sponsor Ian then simply visit his sponsorship page.

I'm sure you will all agree it is a more than worthwhile cause.

Ben (NTF)