Saturday 23rd April - Sandown - Bet365 Gold Cup Day - The end of the 2010/11 jumps season. Despair ye not though all you National Hunt fans because as like every year the next season begins the following day!
It's safe to say that a majority of punters start switching codes around this time and start focusing attentions on all things flat based.
Here at NTF I'm no different. However, despite screwing my flat head on I'm never one to completely close myself off from a potentially profitable betting opportunity or angle and feel the summer jumping game has enough opportunities (if we look hard enough) to warrant at the very least a passing glance every now and then.
Here at NTF I'm no different. However, despite screwing my flat head on I'm never one to completely close myself off from a potentially profitable betting opportunity or angle and feel the summer jumping game has enough opportunities (if we look hard enough) to warrant at the very least a passing glance every now and then.
NTF Summer Jumping Angle #1
Over the summer (May - Aug) I'll be making frequent visits into the summer jumping game and highlighting angles where I think we as punters can skim some profits.
The first angle may be a rather obvious one but sometimes it pays to not dig too deep in search of a profitable angle -
The first angle may be a rather obvious one but sometimes it pays to not dig too deep in search of a profitable angle -
Figures sourced from PROFORM
All Gordon Elliott runners in Class 4 or 5 events (Irish races included)
79 winners | 311 runners | 25% S/R | +£154.45 BF LSP (+£25.49 to standard SP)
Win & Place 154/311 - 50% S/R
To be operating at a 25% strike-rate in these types of races shows he is clearly quite a few lengths ahead of many other yards that also run their horses in the summer months. The Elliott yard is one that is on a serious upward curve at the minute and it's hard to see these strike rates dipping anytime soon. He clearly enjoys plundering the lower reaches of the summer game and until the profits have been sucked dry it's an angle we would do well to keep at the front of our punting minds.
#TWITTERHORSE
I am pleased to announce that I am taking my first steps into racehorse ownership! If you are a regular Twitter user then you are probably well aware of this exciting project which is the mastermind of Eamonn Wilmott (@ewilmott) and trainer Jeremy Gask (@jeremygask). Essentially the idea was floated on Twitter by Eamonn to get a syndicate of 'Tweeters' together to purchase a horse from the recent breeze up-sales, to be trained by Wiltshire based Jeremy Gask. The idea quickly snowballed, the places on the syndicate filled up in uber quick time (originally 50 spots, now extended to 60 due to demand) and we now have the following 2yo safely tucked up at Jeremy's yard -
This magnificent youngster is by freshman sire DARK ANGEL who many shrewd judges have tipped to be champion first season sire this term.
Needless to say you will all be able to follow the progress of our boy as he progresses through his racing career on a regular basis here on NTF the Blog.
The syndicate (the TWITTERATI as we are officially known!) are currently in the process of voting on the name of our lad. The 2 names that were floated around with the most regularity were TRENDING and HASHTAG and subsequently these are the two we have to choose from. Each member of the syndicate gets one vote, the name receiving the most votes will be the name our future champion (you have to dream!) races under.
Now here lies the problem.
I like TRENDING..... and I like HASHTAG...but which one is best?
There's only one way to find out.......
Let the NTF readers chose my vote for me!!
Which name do you prefer?
The street fighting spirit of HASHTAG or the smooth precision of TRENDING?
Flip your eyes to the top right of the blog and place your vote and whatever the NTF readers decide upon is where my vote will go. Be quick though as my vote has to be in by 9am on Tuesday morning so the name can be registered.
This is your chance to have a small say in the name of the next superstar racehorse to burn up the racetrack!!
Get your votes in NOW!
NTF Flat Service 2011
The mighty Frankel's first date with destiny is almost upon us and that also means the NTF 2011 Flat subscription service is almost ready to blast into action.
This year I will be looking at a number of the major flat races and meetings on the racing calendar from Guineas weekend right through to the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October.
As well as the usual in-depth NTF race analysis subscribers will also have exclusive access to NTF guides that highlight angles such as the following gem that I uncovered last summer -
Motivator Offspring - 1m3f+
MOTIVATOR (Sire) offspring running over 1m3f or further (figures updated to 18-04-11)
20 winners | 79 runners | 25% S/R | +£92.45 LSP to Betfair SP
Win & Place strike-rate 42/79 - 53% S/R
These are the types of angles I love! Once I have this starting point I don't stop there, I dig to see if there is more gold lurking around. In this instance there is!
MOTIVATOR (Sire) offspring running over 1m3f or further - Handicap races only
18 winners | 58 runners | 31% S/R | +£104.99 LSP to Betfair SP
Win & Place strike-rate 35/58 - 60% S/R
Although the WIN strike-rates and the LSP figures are healthy enough on their own it is the WIN & PLACE figures that really catch my attention. A 60% strike-rate on the handicap figures above is immense. Why am I so interested in these win & place figures? Well I know that not everyone that follows NTF is interested in win only betting, there are plenty of people who read my stuff that enjoy landing E/W bets at decent prices. The above angle works for everyone; there is enough there to keep the Win only punters happy but the punters that like to utilise the exchange place markets or indeed the straight forward E/W bet also have enough to get their teeth into.
Obviously there is no guarantee that this angle will continue at its current healthy rate but looking at the breeding side of things as I do I can see that Motivator passes down numerous stamina influences to his stock and it is over these longer trips that I expect his kids to show their best pieces of form.
Not only do I offer in-depth analysis for a vast majority of the top races due to be run during the 2011 Flat season (using exclusive Dosage trends as well as extended trends analysis to 'Narrow the Field') I will also be providing numerous sire angles, trainer angles and jockey angles (amongst others) to help aid and abet your own betting approach.
I won't be bombarding you with tips (if you are a regular reader of this FREE Blog you will already be aware this is not my style) but I will be offering in-depth analysis and alternative angles that you can add to your own punting portfolio and further your own racing knowledge.
The full NTF 2011 Flat service is available for £99.99 and runs from Guineas weekend at the end of the month through to the Racing Post Trophy at Donny in late October.
There are now only very limited spaces left as members of the 2010/11 National Service were given first dibs on the flat service and once the remaining few slots fill up I will be closing the doors and concentrating my efforts fully on producing my usual in-depth analysis and racing angles.
Sign up and secure your place on the service at the NTF web-site......
Not only will I be providing regular sire/trainer/jockey angles I will also be providing the popular 'NTF Stat Attack' guides for a number of the major meetings.
Here is a copy of the Aintree NTF Stat Attack guide that went out to subscribers (Figures sourced from PROFORM) -
Last season the NTF service only concentrated on a handful of the major Flat meetings and uncovered such gems as -
Mamlook in the 17 runner Chester cup (7-1)
The 1-2 in the 17 runner Epsom Oaks - Snow Fairy 9-1 and Meeznah
Mamlook in the 17 runner Chester cup (7-1)
The 1-2 in the 17 runner Epsom Oaks - Snow Fairy 9-1 and Meeznah
25-1
Dirar in the 20 runner Ebor stakes at 14/1
The 1-2 in the 16 runner Melrose Stakes - Mount Athos at 8-1 and
Dirar in the 20 runner Ebor stakes at 14/1
The 1-2 in the 16 runner Melrose Stakes - Mount Athos at 8-1 and
Tactician at 20/1
Redford in the 26 runner Ayr Gold Cup at 14/1
Grab your place today before the doors close -
Redford in the 26 runner Ayr Gold Cup at 14/1
Grab your place today before the doors close -
2 comments:
RETWEET
I'd have voted for 'Trendy' or 'Trendster' or 'Trendstar' but Trending' is about the most clumsy and meaningless variant of the word that the Twitterarti could have contrived!
So I've voted for Hashtag, much as that makes him sound like one of a million of the Sheiks horse's whose career's last about five minutes before they are sent off to stud or the glue factory depending on their level of success or failure.
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