NTF - 2011 Epsom Derby Fallout

There's a new kid in town......

 

Was it a vintage Derby? The head says no.

Was it won by a class animal? The jury is out but the head is leaning towards yes.

Here is my take on each runner in the 2011 Epsom Derby -

1 Pour Moi (IRE) 4/1 - Did he handle the track? I'm not convinced. Does that make his performance even better? Almost certainly. Barzalona had to get after him fairly early in the straight but all credit to the horse he kept responding. It struck me that the further they went the stronger the horse appeared and I would imagine 1m2f races should now be well off limits. The Arc is now obviously on the agenda and the horse deserves to be amongst the favourites for the Paris showdown in the autumn, however, I could not entertain taking any of the prices available at the minute.

2 Treasure Beach 25/1 - A fine piece of riding from O'Donoghue on what is essentially an exposed performer. The options are still pretty much open on this Galileo colt and although he may fall short of the top of the tree there will be races in the 3yo and he should continue to perform with credit.

3 Carlton House (USA) 5/2F - To mind there are no real excuses for the Stoute runner. He ran a solid race and he showed a mean turn of foot at around the 3 furlong pole. Personally I think he should be put back over 1m2f as I feel he may always just fall short at the top level over 1m4f; I'm not convinced the stamina is all there for the 1m4f Grade 1's. 

4  Memphis Tennessee (IRE) 20/1 - Ran a blinder and until the final furlong and a half and young Joseph O'Brien was riding and controlling the race well. However, O'Brien seemed to get out of sync with his mount when push came to shove it was disappointing he couldn't hold on for a place. There are races in the horse.

5 Native Khan (FR) 8/1 - In my opinion he falls short on class at this level, however, what he lacks in class he more than makes up for in his determined attitude. He is the sort to pick up Group 2's and Group 3's but a Group 1 victory may prove elusive (unless he makes the trip to German, Italy....etc)

6 Recital (FR) 5/1 - Pat Smullen (or Pats Mullen as Mrs NTF calls him!) seemed to struggle to settle the horse in the first couple of furlongs and this may have left him with little in the tank for the final surge to the line. I don't think it was entirely the horse not handling the track that cost him here and it could be that he is one of those Montjeu's that has the talent but doesn't always use it to his best advantage. If he settles more as a 4yo he could be very interesting.

7 Vadamar (FR) 14/1 - Never really in the race and it could have been happening all too fast for him on the ground. Softer and/or further may be the key to this one.

8 Masked Marvel 25/1 - Doesn't look a group 1 animal to me and will probably find some success lower down the tree.

9 Pisco Sour (USA) 50/1 - Possibly struggled with not being able to lead but likely to prove well below Group 1 class.

10 Seville (GER) 13/2 - Never in the race and has to be said it was disappointing run. Did he struggle with the track? I don't think that was the main contributing factor. To me he seemed to either run out of petrol (very quickly) or had absolutely zero change of gear. I'm inclined to go with the latter and his future may rest over further.

11 Ocean War 12/1 - Miserable run and didn't seem interested in the job at hand. Interesting to see where they go with this one as it's difficult to see what his options are. He is better than the result suggests but I'm not sure by how much.

12 Castlemorris King 150/1 - Completely out of his depth.

13 Marhaba Malyoon (IRE) 100/1 - Similarly out of his depth.

The Derby usually throws up plenty of winners and class performers. Will this year prove the same? Time will tell but one thing is for certain - it won't be the last we hear of Mikael Barzalona!

Ben (NTF)