Comments on Narrowing the Field The Blog: NTF - 2011 Epsom Derby Fallout

Everything is very open and very clear explanation...

2011-08-01T11:07:51.640+01:00

Everything is very open and very clear explanation of issues.Your website is very useful.Thanks for sharing.
Regards,
jockey stats

Ben i would go further and say that there isnt a g...

2011-06-09T14:41:56.456+01:00

Ben i would go further and say that there isnt a group 1 horse in the field of the Epsom Derby in races where they meet there elders

Unlike the French Derby winner who i have has this years Arc winner already trainers knows the time of day they will put him away and he will win the Prix Neil before Taking the Arc if my opinion is correct of him
He is 7lbs better than the English winner IMHO at this stage with more improvement still to come I cant have the Queens horse he doesnt get 12f IMHO

Cheers Bobhorse

Bob Horse Very interesting little sample you prov...

2011-06-09T11:29:05.782+01:00

Bob Horse

Very interesting little sample you provide. Will be keeping that in mind. There is certainly a train of thought that suggests a few in this years Derby field were below G1 standard.

Cheers for the comment.

Hi WL Thanks for the comment. I'm personally ...

2011-06-09T11:26:11.351+01:00

Hi WL

Thanks for the comment. I'm personally of the view that his rating is, for the moment, about right. It gives room for the improvement that he will invariably need to show to beat his elders.

I agree that Carlton House has a Group 1 in him but I think it will be over 1m2f rather than 1m4f.

Cheers

Is it really 12 months since my workforce post we...

2011-06-06T16:39:31.843+01:00

Is it really 12 months since my workforce post

well here are my thoughts on this years winner

I Have started to look back at past Derby winners that won in a photo by less than 1/2L and here are the findings and how they went on in races after their win

1984 Secreto (Shd) Never Ran Again after Derby

1997 Benny The Dip (Shd) 2nd in Eclipse 3rd in Juddmonte international 6th in the Champion Stakes

1998 High Rise (Hd) 2nd in the KGQE stakes at Ascot 7th in the Arc

2006 Sir Percy (Shd) 7th in the Champion 4th in the Sheema Clasic

2011 Pour Moi (hd) ???

I wouldn’t be touching this winner with a shitty stick in future races

Now to see what won those races they competed in, in the case of

1997 : Eclipse,(Pilsudski 5yold who prepped at Ascot when 2nd in the Hardwick stakes ) Juddmonte (Singspeil older horse who prepped KGQE at Ascot when 4th ) and Champion stakes (Pilsudski older horse who prepped in the Arc when 2nd )

1998 (Swain older horse prepped in Hardwick when 3rd which was in turn won by a older horse Posidonas who prepped for it in the Coronation Cup at Epsom ) (Sagamix who prepped for this in by winning the Prix Neil as an unbeaten 3yold )

2006 (Pride an older horse who prepped for this race by running 2nd in the Arc)

2007 (Notnowcato an older horse who prepped for this race running 3rd in the Prince of Wales at Ascot beaten by Manduro another 5y old )

Now the past is no guide to the future but even with this short sample you would have to agree that these horses will struggle against there older rivals in all the big races to come from now on. This could be a real money spinner should that be the case

keep up the great work Ben

Bobhorse

I'm always interested in discussion about &quo...

2011-06-06T14:59:24.540+01:00

I'm always interested in discussion about "Classic" races as (invariably) the new kid on the block is never thought as good as the one they replace.
My take is that POUR MOI is very good. His half-sister was 2nd in the Prix de Dianne beaten by Zarkava (no less), and this Derby winning performance outshone that one. Also, don't dismiss TREASURE BEACH - O'Brien nearly always sends his best 3yo's to the Chester May meeting and he should never have been 25/1 after winning the Chester Vase and thereby demonstrating proven stamina over the Derby trip.
I would agree that Carlton House has to prove he is a true 12-furlong Group 1 horse, but he certainly showed sufficient tactical speed to pick-up the leaders to suggest a Group 1 is within his compass.
You also have to consider the position from which POUR MOI won, as not even the great Dancing Brave could come from last to first in the home straight to win the 1986 Derby.
I would say his RPR23 rating is "light".