Narrowing the Field The Blog

Sign up to the NTF 2011/12 National Hunt service TODAY!

2011-10-19T09:00:00.001+01:00

Doors our now open for the 2011/12 NTF National Hunt Service!

Join NOW before the doors close on Friday 21-10-11!

More details can be found on the following link -

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www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/join-ntf/

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Places are rapidly filling up so don't hesitate - JOIN TODAY!

Ben (NTF)

NTF on the move........

2011-06-28T16:06:00.000+01:00

Hi everyone

Just a quick note to let you all know that I'm currently in the process of moving from blog to web-site! The Blog is likely to be quiet for a while as I'm designing the web-site myself (potentially asking for trouble but I like a challenge!) so don't fret and think I have deserted you all.

There is no launch date at the minute for the web-site but I will keep you all informed when the time approaches.

If there are any previous NTF features that you have enjoyed and would like to see included on the web-site then please either leave a comment below or drop me an email. I obviously have a strong idea of how the web-site will look and it will operate but I'm always open to ideas and suggestions from the people that make it all worthwhile; the NTF readership.

I will still be around on twitter (@Narrowthefield) and those of you that are on the flat subscription list will obviously still be receiving regular updates from myself, it's only this here blog that will be a tad quiet for a little while.

Many thanks to every single one of you that has taken the time to read the NTF Blog and I look forward to seeing you all on the shiny new NTF website!

Adios for now.....

Ben (NTF)

Drive Cheve to the Levy(?).....

2011-06-22T10:03:00.001+01:00

I'm firmly of the opinion that every handicapper has a ceiling to their abilities - they have a rating they can't (or at best struggle) to win above but can certainly win when on a mark below that ceiling.

There is one such horse currently in training that fits this ethos perfectly (well there are obviously a number of horses but this one stood out at me at Ascot last week) and that is the Richard Price trained CHEVETON. Not only does this horse have a definable ceiling to his talents he also needs Good or slower underfoot conditions to be seen at his best. The softening ground came in for him last week and he was backed in from around 33s in the morning to an SP of 18/1. However, punters overlooked 2 vital facts about this horse -

1) He was running from an OR of 96. His previous highest winning mark on turf had been 91 (he has won off 92 but 5lb claimer Dale Swift technically reduced that to 87)

Cheveton record when running off a mark above 91 - 5-2-0-5-2-3-0-3-0-5-0-2-0-7-0-0-4-8-0

Cheveton record when running off a mark of 91 or below - 3-2-1-1-1-1-1-8-3-7-6-5-2-1-1

Clear indications that this horse has a ratings ceiling that he struggles to win above.

2) He was running in a class 2 race worth 62k to the winner

Yes he had won at class 2 level before but not in anything as competitive as a 62k Royal Ascot race. The highest value race the gelding had won was a £18500 race at Haydock.

His form figures in races worth 20k or more read - 5-2-0-0-0-2-0-0-3-6-4-0-0-0

Patchy at best I would say.

So although the 7yo had underfoot conditions to suit last week there were a couple of other major factors that were against the horse.

Cheveton is actually one of those horses that shows strong preferences as to what are his optimum racing conditions. If we filter his form to the following -

Good or softer ground - Class 2 level or less - Race worth 20k or less - OR 91 or less - Turf - Hcp

We get the following form figures - 1-1-2-5-7-0-1-1-1-1-1-2-3

All 7 career wins are encompassed within this filter and these are the circumstances I would be looking to back the Richard Price runner.

He has a mark he can win from - there are clear indicators to his ground preferences - he has struggled to win in the competitive big money handicaps - he is a solid class 2 level or below performer

If everything else is in his favour I would not rule him out running a big race (without possibly winning) in a 20k+ race but these type of races are clearly not ideal for him.

*Notes - He has won from a mark of 96 on the AW but AW form does not always translate to the turf and certainly looks to be the case for Cheveton.

His OR of 91 or below does include when a claimer has reduced his burden. For example his last victory was from a mark of 92 but was reduced by a 5lb claimer to 87. So as long as a claimer brings the mark down I would be interested.

There is a lot to be said for getting to know the preferences of any handicapper and if you play your cards right and put in the work you will reap the rewards in the long term.

Now I'm away to figure out how many connotations the blog post title has.....

but the Levy was dry.......

the Levee holds water to soften the ground......

p.s. Proform software makes finding this info a doddle! Take a look for yourselves - http://www.proformracing.co.uk/

Ben (NTF)

NTF Royal Ascot Guide

2011-06-10T10:13:00.000+01:00

Can he extent his unbeaten run?

Five days of high octane racing with nearly 4 million in prize money and top hats as far as the eye can see......that can only mean one thing - ROYAL ASCOT!

This year we have -

The FRANKEL-MONSTER attempting to stretch his unbeaten dominance to 7 in the St James's Palace Stakes

SO YOU THINK stepping up his UK assault in the Prince of Wales's Stakes

Wonder mare GOLDIKOVA v CANFORD CLIFFS (with CAPE BLANCO thrown in for good measure)

FAME AND GLORY attempting to fill the void left by the great YEATS

...and much much more over 5 days chocked full of Group race after Group race.

Here at NTF HQ I've been digging deep into the trends and stats for the Royal meeting and as well as the exclusive race trends that I provide for my flat subscribers I have also created a comprehensive 31 page Trainer and Jockey guide that pinpoints who's hot and who's not when it comes to the Royal meeting.

This guide examines 18 of the top trainers and 14 of the finest jockeys and identifies exactly where their strengths and weaknesses exist.

You will discover important facts such as -

Which jockey has ridden for 24 yards out with his stable jockey commitments and has only managed to win on ONE of those rides

Which jockey has form figures of 1-1-4-2 when riding in 30 runner fields

The jockey that has been beaten on all 26 of his rides in fields of 16 runners or more

Which top yard has a 0/29 record with their runners that finished 6th or worst on their final start before Royal Ascot

The yard that has form figures of - 1-2-0-8-1-1-0-0-0-1-2-0-2 - with their 2 and 3yo's over 8f or less that finished in the top 3 last time out

The trainer that has sent 46 consecutive losers to the track in the last 3 seasons

I had decided to keep all flat guides locked down and exclusive to my subscribers but I have received a few emails in recent days asking if I was doing anything for the Royal meeting. With that in mind this 31 page Trainer and Jockey guide will be available to non-subscribers direct from the Blog.

Simply click on the 'BUY NOW' Paypal button that is located at the top right of the Blog and follow the simple instructions. Once you have completed the Paypal process please remember to not close the Paypal window as the link needed to download the guide will be made available on the final screen.

This NTF guide will be available until Monday and is accessible to non-subscribers of the flat service for £6.

If you are struggling with your Royal Ascot analysis and decision making then this could be the best £6 you spend all summer!

*Note - This is NOT an NTF race analysis guide. This guide purely looks at trainer and jockey angles.

If you are on the NTF flat subscription list you DO NOT need to purchase this guide as you already have access to it in the members area.

Trending (#twitterhorse) update

I'm pleased to report our boy is ticking along nicely and word is he may be making his debut in mid-July. Fingers firmly crossed..........

Ben (NTF)

NTF - 2011 Epsom Derby Fallout

2011-06-06T11:44:00.000+01:00

There's a new kid in town......

Was it a vintage Derby? The head says no.

Was it won by a class animal? The jury is out but the head is leaning towards yes.

Here is my take on each runner in the 2011 Epsom Derby -

1 Pour Moi (IRE) 4/1 - Did he handle the track? I'm not convinced. Does that make his performance even better? Almost certainly. Barzalona had to get after him fairly early in the straight but all credit to the horse he kept responding. It struck me that the further they went the stronger the horse appeared and I would imagine 1m2f races should now be well off limits. The Arc is now obviously on the agenda and the horse deserves to be amongst the favourites for the Paris showdown in the autumn, however, I could not entertain taking any of the prices available at the minute.

2 Treasure Beach 25/1 - A fine piece of riding from O'Donoghue on what is essentially an exposed performer. The options are still pretty much open on this Galileo colt and although he may fall short of the top of the tree there will be races in the 3yo and he should continue to perform with credit.

3 Carlton House (USA) 5/2F - To mind there are no real excuses for the Stoute runner. He ran a solid race and he showed a mean turn of foot at around the 3 furlong pole. Personally I think he should be put back over 1m2f as I feel he may always just fall short at the top level over 1m4f; I'm not convinced the stamina is all there for the 1m4f Grade 1's.

4 Memphis Tennessee (IRE) 20/1 - Ran a blinder and until the final furlong and a half and young Joseph O'Brien was riding and controlling the race well. However, O'Brien seemed to get out of sync with his mount when push came to shove it was disappointing he couldn't hold on for a place. There are races in the horse.

5 Native Khan (FR) 8/1 - In my opinion he falls short on class at this level, however, what he lacks in class he more than makes up for in his determined attitude. He is the sort to pick up Group 2's and Group 3's but a Group 1 victory may prove elusive (unless he makes the trip to German, Italy....etc)

6 Recital (FR) 5/1 - Pat Smullen (or Pats Mullen as Mrs NTF calls him!) seemed to struggle to settle the horse in the first couple of furlongs and this may have left him with little in the tank for the final surge to the line. I don't think it was entirely the horse not handling the track that cost him here and it could be that he is one of those Montjeu's that has the talent but doesn't always use it to his best advantage. If he settles more as a 4yo he could be very interesting.

7 Vadamar (FR) 14/1 - Never really in the race and it could have been happening all too fast for him on the ground. Softer and/or further may be the key to this one.

8 Masked Marvel 25/1 - Doesn't look a group 1 animal to me and will probably find some success lower down the tree.

9 Pisco Sour (USA) 50/1 - Possibly struggled with not being able to lead but likely to prove well below Group 1 class.

10 Seville (GER) 13/2 - Never in the race and has to be said it was disappointing run. Did he struggle with the track? I don't think that was the main contributing factor. To me he seemed to either run out of petrol (very quickly) or had absolutely zero change of gear. I'm inclined to go with the latter and his future may rest over further.

11 Ocean War 12/1 - Miserable run and didn't seem interested in the job at hand. Interesting to see where they go with this one as it's difficult to see what his options are. He is better than the result suggests but I'm not sure by how much.

12 Castlemorris King 150/1 - Completely out of his depth.

13 Marhaba Malyoon (IRE) 100/1 - Similarly out of his depth.

The Derby usually throws up plenty of winners and class performers. Will this year prove the same? Time will tell but one thing is for certain - it won't be the last we hear of Mikael Barzalona!

Ben (NTF)

3 horses that didn't win the Epsom Derby (but maybe should have...)

2011-06-03T10:42:00.001+01:00

Hala Bek? Remember him?

The Epsom Derby - A race that always provides plenty of talking points; before, during and after the event.

In the past couple of days we have already had the will he/won't he run saga of the Queens horse and hot ante-post favourite Carlton House as well as the frankly ridiculous story of Kieren Fallon possibly being stopped from riding in the race after Native Khan's owner went to the high court to prevent him riding Recital!

The race itself often produces numerous hard luck stories and unlucky defeats. Below are 3 recent cases of horses that didn't win the Epsom Derby but maybe should have......

HALA BEK - 2006 Derby - 4th beaten 1/2 a length

Remember him anyone? Talk about throwing away the chance of a lifetime! Comes to throw down a winning challenge in the final furlong then....BOOM!....the Halling colt veers dramatically to the right and decides "I don't really fancy winning this thing". It's hard to argue that he wouldn't have won that day if he had run straight but the facts are he didn't run straight and ultimately it cost him. The winner that day, Sir Percy, is often described as one of the worst winners of the Derby in recent years but was the race itself all that bad? I'm not so sure. We musn't forget that amongst the beaten horses were Dylan Thomas (multiple Group 1 winner including the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes), Sixties Icon (St Leger winner), Papal Bull (Royal Ascot winner and Group 1 placed) and Septimus (Irish St Leger winner and Yorkshire & Doncaster Cup winner). Not exactly a who's who of racing greats but nonetheless all class animals in their own right. But what of Hala Bek? Well things didn't quite go to plan for him. Due to injury he didn't run after his Derby effort for another 2 years, in which time he was purchased by Godolphin, and on his return he romped to a cosy 7 length victory of a conditions race at Nottingham....then he was retired! Could have been oh so different had he not jinked his way to defeat in the 2006 Derby.......

YEATS - 2004 Derby - Hot ante-post favourite but didn't run

He was all the rage for the 2004 Derby since his maiden victory at the Curragh in 2003. Favourite throughout the winter of 2003/04 he then came back with 2 smooth Group wins at Leopardstown, including the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. Then in the week leading up to the race.......BOOM!....he is pulled from the race, with muscle problems sighted as the reason for his non participation. Was this one of the greatest blessings in disguise in the history of the sport? If he had run (and potentially won) in the 2004 Derby would he have ever lined up in the Ascot Gold Cup? Would we have ever been witness to the only 4 times winner of the Gold Cup? All speculation of course but we must consider the fact that had he run in his Derby we would never have had the joy of watching the greatest stayer to have graced the turf. Not winning the Derby isn't always that bad is it.........

TARTAN BEARER - 2008 Derby - 2nd beaten 1/2 a length

Beaten by the top class New Approach in a ding-dong battle to the line it always niggles with me that his slow start possibly cost him glory that day. Ryan Moore had to cajole him along in the early stages of the 2008 Derby and there is a very big chance that just blunted his finishing kick enough to cost him the biggest prize of all. The Stoute trained horse then went on to look for compensation in the Irish Derby where this time he was denied the prize by another runner veering into him in the final furlong. The horse only had 3 more career starts and despite winning the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes and finishing runner-up in the Prince of Wales's Stakes and the King George one can't help but feel he never really fulfilled his promise.......

Are there any other hard luck stories that spring to mind?

Let me know by leaving a comment below.

Best of luck for any bets you may place tomorrow and if there are any hard luck stories then let's hope you are on the right side of them!

Ben (NTF)

NTF 'Holiday' Report - Somerset to Yorkshire

2011-05-27T11:23:00.000+01:00

I'm back! Well I was never really too far away but it's always good to have a break (or so Mrs NTF tells me!).

The NTF crew (myself, Mrs NTF and the 3 NTF greyhounds) took ourselves off for a little break down to Somerset and spend a week in a lovely quiet cottage in Ashton (even mental Minnie enjoyed the peace and tranquillity!). Whilst we were down in that neck of the woods we took the opportunity to visit the boy Trending (or #twitterhorse as some of you may know him) at the Horses First Racing yard in Sutton Veny....

Horses First Racing

Simply a magnificent set-up! As soon as we walked into the yard I was struck by the slickness and professionalism of the operation. Warm and welcoming from the moment you drive through the front gates with a plethora of equine facilities to assist trainer Jeremy Gask and staff; treadmill's, uphill gallop, oval and straight flat gallops, sea walker, outdoor soft walker, indoor walker, wash-bays....and much much more. It's all there, including my own personal favourite the observation tower! The tower is situated so that you can see all of the gallops and have a clear view of the horses whilst undertaking their daily work.

In trainer Jeremy Gask they look to have the ideal man for the job. Friendly, knowledgeable, easy to talk to and clearly enjoys what he is doing. I could have picked Jeremy's brains for hours but unfortunately Mrs NTF and I had to shoot off and visit some big rocks in a field in Wiltshire!

*Mrs NTF's comment after we had been to see Stonehenge was "Today we viewed 2 large grey things standing about in fields. I'll tell you now, watching Trending sleeping and yawning was a million times more interesting than these grey stones!!" You gotta love her!

Now as you know from my visits to Lucinda Russell's yard I'm one for taking plenty of video footage and pictures of the day to share with you guys. So you would think that when I go visit my own horse I would come back armed with millions and millions of footage that I could share with you guys, right? Eh....well.....we kinda forgot! In fairness we were on holiday! I do have some video footage (OK we took 1 video!) but the best place to see footage of our day there is by visiting #Twitterhorse TV. Eamonn Wilmott (founder of Horses First Racing) and his wife Oriana do a wonderful job of keeping all syndicate members up to date with the progress of Trending so make sure you check out their site. I will be posting links on here on a regular basis so you will be able to keep up to date with the most chilled horse in training (that's Trending by the way!).

As I mentioned we did remember to snap a few pics of the boy (thankfully!) and here are a couple of exclusive snaps you won't see anywhere else -

*ps ignore the date on the pics as it's obviously wrong! It's not our normal camera and there is a 'funny' story regarding greyhounds and a battery charger that I can't be bothered going into! (I will say that Minnie has had her pocket money docked until she has paid for the damage!)


Trending in his normal exuberant mid-morning mood!

Trending rising from his mid-morning slumber.

"I'm awake!"

Stretching out on the uphill gallop.

We had a thoroughly enjoyable day at the yard and future plans for our boy is to let him tell us when he is ready to strut his stuff on the racetrack. Jeremy is very much one for giving the youngsters plenty of time and that can only benefit the horse in the long term. Trending won't be rushed and I'm confident he is in the best hands. If he is good enough then Mr Gask will have him fit enough; lets hope for exciting times ahead :)

...on to Yorkshire

After we had comprehensively explored Somerset we made our way up to Yorkshire for a weekend stay in another quiet cottage in a place called Old Byeland on the edge of the Yorkshire Moors. On our way to the cottage (about 2 miles away) we passed through what was obviously all-weather horse gallops. On arrival at our cottage I asked the landlady if she knew if there were any racing yards in the area as I had noticed the gallops on the way to the cottage. She cheerfully told me that Kevin Ryan and Bryan Smart were both located close by. Excellent I thought! Since we are here I may as well chance my hand at trying to get some footage and maybe some info for the Blog. Our internet/phone coverage was pretty limited but we knew the yards were close so as we do we planned to go exploring on the Sunday.

On Sunday we somehow stumbled upon Kevin Ryan's yard and the first sign you see on approaching the yard is 'visits by appointment ONLY'. Fair enough I thought but as we were only in the area for a few days we went ahead and entered the yard. To get into the yard there are large wooden gates that are less than welcoming. Again, fair enough I thought, there is xxx amount of equine talent in the yard and you maybe don't want any jack the lad wandering in. Once through the gates one of the lads pointed me in the direction of the Ryan house where I did actually manage to speak to Kevin Ryan himself. It was clear from the moment he saw me he had decided he either didn't like me or didn't trust me! I explained who I was and that all I was looking for was maybe a few pics of the yard or a few pics of some horses on the gallops and possibly a line or 2 about some of their exciting 2yo's or hopes for some of their older horses. Essentially it's free promotion for his yard and my readers get a little snippet of how one of the larger flat operations works and maybe a line or 2 about a couple of the many horses in the yard. I was told to come back at 8am the next day where I would be allowed to photograph ONE string on the gallops, "speak to my head lad when you turn up and he will deal with you"!

Basically he wasn't making it easy for me and the pictures I did get are pointless as I have no idea what horses they are!! I did try and speak to the head lad but he was on top of a horse at the time! To be fair I did turn up uninvited on the Sunday (not on the Monday though!) and he is obviously a busy man but I can't help but wonder if I should have went looking for Bryan Smart's yard instead.....

Ben (NTF)

NTF 3 to follow from Chester

2011-05-07T10:15:00.000+01:00

The Roodee; not everyone's cup of tea but personally I'm fan of the track. For myself I would rather see a horse try and tackle the intricacies of Chester than say the wide open expanses of somewhere like Newmarket.

Chester's May meeting dished up its usual blend of close finishes mixed in with some exciting pattern class performances and here are my three to take from the three day meeting.

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (3-1-10-4-0 (18) / 1.00 / 0.17)

1st in the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes

This was the one I really wanted to see win and win in style. Thankfully that's exactly what this 4yo son of Montjeu did and judging by yesterday's display we now have the 2009 Racing Post Trophy winner firmly back on the scene. It was an oddly run race yesterday and although his opponents may fall just short of the top level it's hard to not be impressed by the way he left them for dead when jockey Ryan Moore pressed the turbo button. Undoubtedly the horse needed his comeback run last time out at the Curragh but what caught my eye the most was how the horse looked and held himself at Chester yesterday. On his seasonal debut in April he looked small, fragile and almost unsure of himself; a horse that seemed to be lacking in confidence. Yesterday he looked bigger, stronger and bursting with power, much more like the horse many people thought he could be. The horses options are wide open and Ballydoyle could take any number of roads with him, I'm excited to see where he turns up next.

NATHANIEL (5-0-16-4-1 (26) / 1.00 / 0.15)

2nd in the Group 3 Chester Vase

I'm not anywhere near convinced John Gosden's colt appreciated the ever turning nature of the Chester circuit. Jockey William Buick always seemed to be having to cajole the 3yo along and it's not until they straightened up for home that the son of Galileo really started to find his feet. The winner Treasure Beach is clearly a smart colt so to only go down by a head is no disaster. Nathaniel has solid form throughout his short career so far and a track where he can stretch his legs more should see him reach the winners enclosure for the 2nd time. I wouldn't rule out Epsom as although it is also an intricate track it is clearly more galloping in nature than Chester. Nathaniel remains a youngster with potential.

SEA ODYSSEY (6-1-9-2-0 (18) / 1.77 / 0.61)

2nd in the Irish Stallion Farms E B F Maiden Stakes (Thursday)

This Dark Angel colt (which obviously is enough to get me interested!!) ran a sound race in 2nd in the 5 furlong maiden from a less than ideal draw (stall 10). The fact the Barry Hills horse was also slightly bumped at the start can't have helped matters so it's a credit to the horse that he ran as well as he did. He showed plenty of early speed to tack across from his unfavourable draw and it surely won't be long before this one adds to his father's excellent start to his freshman sire year.

...and talking of Dark Angel colts....

TRENDING

Its official! The name Trending has been cleared by Weatherbys and our 2yo Dark Angel colt is now no longer nameless!

For those of you that are interested I have added TRENDING to the Thoroughbred Database where you can view his 5 generation pedigree.

Our boy was given a little break after his breeze up sales appearance but trainer Jeremy Gask is now starting to build up his daily work routine in preparation for his racecourse debut (no firm date as yet).

The following video shows TRENDING taking in some work after his short break and I believe it was the first time he was ridden at the farm. All very exciting, especially for a first time owner like myself -

As you may be aware this is the freshman year for his sire DARK ANGEL and boy has he come out of the blocks firing! So far his figures read - 9 wins from 29 starts (as well as 6 seconds and 3 thirds) with the 9 victories being shared out amongst 7 of his offspring.

Things are looking up for Dark Angel and fingers crossed things are looking promising for TRENDING......

Ben (NTF)

Perth Pointers: Trainers Stats for Perth's April Festival

2011-04-26T12:45:00.001+01:00

Perth Races have 14 varied and exciting fixtures to choose from in 2011, including both daytime and evening fixtures. Each date in our diary offers entertainment or live music, along with six or seven exciting races. Five to six hours of thrills for the whole family. Remember that kids under 18 get in free when accompanied by a paying adult so a sporting day out in the beautiful Perthshire countryside has never been better value!

The above exert was taken from the official Perth racecourse web-site. Basically what they are saying is if you are in the Perth(-ish) area or are able to travel to the track and have kids under 18 in your house then DON'T make them sit down this Friday and watch the bloody Royal Wedding!! Get off your arse and drag them along to Perth racecourse for FREE! It's much better to watch your money go down the drain on a slow horse than it is to sit and watch your money being spend on a lavish ceremony for 2 people you have never met!!

Hell if you read this post you might even find an angle or 2 to allow you to turn a profit at Perth races!

If I'm 100% honest Perth racecourse has never been a happy punting ground for me. Probably because I tend to go for a day out rather than a serious betting day or maybe I'm just looking for value amongst the rags when there really isn't any -

At the past 5 Perth April festival's (2006 - 2010) there have only been THREE winners priced at 20-1 or bigger; 1 at 20-1, 1 at 25-1 and 1 at 33-1.

So from the 99 winners at the festival over the past 5 seasons only 3 have started at 20-1 or bigger. On the win side at least the outsiders really are 'the outsiders'. Without digging into it in great detail I would assume the bigger priced horses come from the smaller yards and they really struggle to match the firepower of the bigger yards that tend to make the journey north for this 3 day extravaganza.

But which yards should we be keeping an eye on?

Who specifically targets this meeting and has their troops in tip-top shape?

*Stats from 2006-2010 - LSP to Betfair SP - Using Proform Software

NIGEL TWISTON DAVIES

The Naunton based trainer has recorded the most victories of any trainer at recent Perth festivals and regularly makes the trip up North to plunder the prize money -

9 winners | 50 runners | 18% S/R | +£3.48 LSP | Win & Place 22/50 44% S/R

This is an angle that is not exactly unknown and it's safe to say the profits are going to be on the skinny side.

However, if we dig a little further we can narrow the NTD runners down to a couple of areas that show a healthier return -

NTD runners in NON-handicap races

6 winners | 17 runners | 35% S/R | +£13.36 LSP | Win & Place 13/17 - 76% S/R

The yard had 5 runners in non-handicap races last year and their form figures read - 1-2-8-2-1.

Certainly an angle to consider over the next 3 days.

Another angle to consider is to only look at the yards hurdler and bumper runners -

NTD runners in only hurdles & bumpers

7 winners | 27 runners | 26% S/R | +£19.79 LSP

NTD runners in only Chases

2 winners | 23 runners | 9% S/R | -£16.32 LSP

For whatever reason the yards chasers don't seem to excel at Perth in April.

VENETIA WILLIAMS

It's quite a hike from her base in King's Caple but she isn't sending her runners up just to take in the scenery -

6 winners | 22 runners | 29% S/R | +£20.28 LSP | Win & Place 11/22 50% S/R

Similar to Twiston-Davies it is the Williams hurdlers that we should be concentrating on -

5 winners | 12 runners | 42% S/R | +£19.78 LSP | Win & Place 7/12 58% S/R

GORDON ELLIOTT

Absolutely no surprise to see our Irish friend up near the top of the trainer's table and others yards must be worried that Elliott is starting to take over at the track -

6 winners | 25 runners | 24% S/R | +£12.57 LSP | Win & Place 17/25 - 68% S/R

There is currently no stand-out angle for the Elliott Yard at Perth except for when Jason Maguire gets the leg up (4/8 - 50% win | 7/8 88% Win & Place) but tomorrow it is a certain A P McCoy that gets the leg up on the yards horses for the first time at Perth in April. It should be noted the pairing have an overall Perth record of 3 wins from 7 rides.

VICTOR DARTNALL

The Devon based trainer does not plunder this meeting with any great regularity (no runners last term) but when he does make the long trip we should sit up and pay attention -

5 winners | 14 runners | 35% S/R | +£16.50 LSP | Win & Place 8/14 - 57% S/R

All 5 winners have come over hurdles -

5 winners | 10 runners | 50% S/R | +£20.40 LSP | Win & Place 6/10 - 60% S/R

It should be noted that although he has not had any chase winners 2 of the 3 he has sent up have finished 2nd (14/1 & 11/4).

We he makes the long trip we can be sure he has his horses primed and ready to go.

I R Ferguson

If Mr Ferguson makes the trip over the Irish Sea from Ballymena then we can be sure he means business -

4 winners | 11 runners | 36% S/R | +£80.01 LSP | Win & Place 5/11 - 45% S/R

Closer scrutiny of his runners tell us that his non-handicap runners have been the ones to be have been on at recent festivals -

4 winners | 7 runners | 57% S/R | +£84.01 LSP

It should also be noted that he only sent 2 over to the meeting last term and both of them won (7/1 & 9/4)

For every positive there is generally a negative and here are a handful of yards that have struggled at the meeting in recent seasons -

Phillip Hobbs

1 winner | 19 runners | 5% S/R | -£2.00 LSP | Win & Place 6/19 - 32% S/R

Not terrible stats but for one of the most powerful in the country they maybe don't score with as much regularity as one would hope.

Sue Bradburne

1 winner | 40 runners | 3% S/R | -£32.00 LSP | Win & Place 10/40 - 25% S/R

Not far for the yards runners to travel but they generally struggle to compete with the big boys. Place record is decent enough however.

...and 2 yards I really would not have expected to be near the bottom of the list -

Lucinda Russell

1 winner | 47 runners | 2% S/R | -£35.00 LSP | Win & Place 10/47 - 21% S/R

The yards local track but winners have been hard to come by at Perth in April.

Jim Goldie

0 winners | 13 runners | 0% S/R | -£13.00 LSP | Win & Place 3/13 - 23% S/R

To be fair to big Jim he has not sent a great deal of runners to the track but it is worth bearing in mind his lower than expected strike-rate.

Although I would never suggest taking these types of stats as gospel they are a good pointer as to which yards are likely to be targeting the meeting and which yards maybe don't have the correct ammo for Perth in the spring time.

Join the FREE NTF updates service

To be kept up to date with all things NTF then simply fill in your details in the form at the top right of the Blog. There will be a couple of FREE gifts waiting for you when you confirm your subscription.....

Raising money for Greatwood

Just a quick note to highlight NTF reader Ian Taylor as he prepares to cycle from John O'Groats to Lands End in Nine days! It is all for the Greatwood Charity which I'm sure most of you will be aware of and if you feel you want to help out and sponsor Ian then simply visit his sponsorship page.

I'm sure you will all agree it is a more than worthwhile cause.

Ben (NTF)

Summertime is for Twits!

2011-04-23T08:45:00.000+01:00

Saturday 23rd April - Sandown - Bet365 Gold Cup Day - The end of the 2010/11 jumps season. Despair ye not though all you National Hunt fans because as like every year the next season begins the following day!

It's safe to say that a majority of punters start switching codes around this time and start focusing attentions on all things flat based.

Here at NTF I'm no different. However, despite screwing my flat head on I'm never one to completely close myself off from a potentially profitable betting opportunity or angle and feel the summer jumping game has enough opportunities (if we look hard enough) to warrant at the very least a passing glance every now and then.

NTF Summer Jumping Angle #1

Over the summer (May - Aug) I'll be making frequent visits into the summer jumping game and highlighting angles where I think we as punters can skim some profits.

The first angle may be a rather obvious one but sometimes it pays to not dig too deep in search of a profitable angle -

Figures sourced from PROFORM

All Gordon Elliott runners in Class 4 or 5 events (Irish races included)

79 winners | 311 runners | 25% S/R | +£154.45 BF LSP (+£25.49 to standard SP)

Win & Place 154/311 - 50% S/R

To be operating at a 25% strike-rate in these types of races shows he is clearly quite a few lengths ahead of many other yards that also run their horses in the summer months. The Elliott yard is one that is on a serious upward curve at the minute and it's hard to see these strike rates dipping anytime soon. He clearly enjoys plundering the lower reaches of the summer game and until the profits have been sucked dry it's an angle we would do well to keep at the front of our punting minds.

#TWITTERHORSE

I am pleased to announce that I am taking my first steps into racehorse ownership! If you are a regular Twitter user then you are probably well aware of this exciting project which is the mastermind of Eamonn Wilmott (@ewilmott) and trainer Jeremy Gask (@jeremygask). Essentially the idea was floated on Twitter by Eamonn to get a syndicate of 'Tweeters' together to purchase a horse from the recent breeze up-sales, to be trained by Wiltshire based Jeremy Gask. The idea quickly snowballed, the places on the syndicate filled up in uber quick time (originally 50 spots, now extended to 60 due to demand) and we now have the following 2yo safely tucked up at Jeremy's yard -

This magnificent youngster is by freshman sire DARK ANGEL who many shrewd judges have tipped to be champion first season sire this term.

Needless to say you will all be able to follow the progress of our boy as he progresses through his racing career on a regular basis here on NTF the Blog.

The syndicate (the TWITTERATI as we are officially known!) are currently in the process of voting on the name of our lad. The 2 names that were floated around with the most regularity were TRENDING and HASHTAG and subsequently these are the two we have to choose from. Each member of the syndicate gets one vote, the name receiving the most votes will be the name our future champion (you have to dream!) races under.

Now here lies the problem.

I like TRENDING..... and I like HASHTAG...but which one is best?

There's only one way to find out.......

Let the NTF readers chose my vote for me!!

Which name do you prefer?

The street fighting spirit of HASHTAG or the smooth precision of TRENDING?

Flip your eyes to the top right of the blog and place your vote and whatever the NTF readers decide upon is where my vote will go. Be quick though as my vote has to be in by 9am on Tuesday morning so the name can be registered.

This is your chance to have a small say in the name of the next superstar racehorse to burn up the racetrack!!

Get your votes in NOW!

NTF Flat Service 2011

The mighty Frankel's first date with destiny is almost upon us and that also means the NTF 2011 Flat subscription service is almost ready to blast into action.

This year I will be looking at a number of the major flat races and meetings on the racing calendar from Guineas weekend right through to the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October.

As well as the usual in-depth NTF race analysis subscribers will also have exclusive access to NTF guides that highlight angles such as the following gem that I uncovered last summer -

Motivator Offspring - 1m3f+

MOTIVATOR (Sire) offspring running over 1m3f or further (figures updated to 18-04-11)

20 winners | 79 runners | 25% S/R | +£92.45 LSP to Betfair SP

Win & Place strike-rate 42/79 - 53% S/R

These are the types of angles I love! Once I have this starting point I don't stop there, I dig to see if there is more gold lurking around. In this instance there is!

MOTIVATOR (Sire) offspring running over 1m3f or further - Handicap races only

18 winners | 58 runners | 31% S/R | +£104.99 LSP to Betfair SP

Win & Place strike-rate 35/58 - 60% S/R

Although the WIN strike-rates and the LSP figures are healthy enough on their own it is the WIN & PLACE figures that really catch my attention. A 60% strike-rate on the handicap figures above is immense. Why am I so interested in these win & place figures? Well I know that not everyone that follows NTF is interested in win only betting, there are plenty of people who read my stuff that enjoy landing E/W bets at decent prices. The above angle works for everyone; there is enough there to keep the Win only punters happy but the punters that like to utilise the exchange place markets or indeed the straight forward E/W bet also have enough to get their teeth into.

Obviously there is no guarantee that this angle will continue at its current healthy rate but looking at the breeding side of things as I do I can see that Motivator passes down numerous stamina influences to his stock and it is over these longer trips that I expect his kids to show their best pieces of form.

Not only do I offer in-depth analysis for a vast majority of the top races due to be run during the 2011 Flat season (using exclusive Dosage trends as well as extended trends analysis to 'Narrow the Field') I will also be providing numerous sire angles, trainer angles and jockey angles (amongst others) to help aid and abet your own betting approach.

I won't be bombarding you with tips (if you are a regular reader of this FREE Blog you will already be aware this is not my style) but I will be offering in-depth analysis and alternative angles that you can add to your own punting portfolio and further your own racing knowledge.

The full NTF 2011 Flat service is available for £99.99 and runs from Guineas weekend at the end of the month through to the Racing Post Trophy at Donny in late October.

There are now only very limited spaces left as members of the 2010/11 National Service were given first dibs on the flat service and once the remaining few slots fill up I will be closing the doors and concentrating my efforts fully on producing my usual in-depth analysis and racing angles.

http://www.narrowthefield.co.uk/

Not only will I be providing regular sire/trainer/jockey angles I will also be providing the popular 'NTF Stat Attack' guides for a number of the major meetings.

Here is a copy of the Aintree NTF Stat Attack guide that went out to subscribers (Figures sourced from PROFORM) -

http://tinyurl.com/3uomjeq

Last season the NTF service only concentrated on a handful of the major Flat meetings and uncovered such gems as -

Mamlook in the 17 runner Chester cup (7-1)

The 1-2 in the 17 runner Epsom Oaks - Snow Fairy 9-1 and Meeznah

25-1

Dirar in the 20 runner Ebor stakes at 14/1

The 1-2 in the 16 runner Melrose Stakes - Mount Athos at 8-1 and

Tactician at 20/1

Redford in the 26 runner Ayr Gold Cup at 14/1

Grab your place today before the doors close -

http://www.narrowthefield.co.uk/

Happy Punting

Ben (NTF)

Free NTF Guide: May 90+ Trainer Stats

2011-04-18T19:05:00.001+01:00

First up - Thank you Ferdy Murphy!

You set it up and we collected!

Beggars Cap - 14/1 (18.58 BSP) - Ran within past 14 days - Wins at Ayr.

A profitable little angle and one that I'm glad I took the time to unearth.

One from the weekend

FOURTH ESTATE (8-3-11-2-0 (24) / 2.20 / 0.71)

1st in Bumper at Ayr (Scottish National Day)

An ultra-smooth performance from the large robust looking son of Fantastic Light and he never once looked like coming off the bridle over the 2 mile trip. Barry Geraghty barely had to move a muscle on-board the 5yo and simply teased him home up the Ayr home straight. It's obviously debatable what exactly he beat in behind but one cannot crab the way the horse imposed his class on the other runners. It should be noted that Nicky Henderson took the same race last term with this year's Supreme Novices' 3rd SPRINTER SACRE so it's not a race that the Seven Barrow handler enters any old dross in. This classy type is now 2 from 2 in the bumper sphere and looks ready made for the jumping game and enters the NTF notebook for next season.

FREE NTF Guide

With May appearing on the horizon and the flat season about to crank up a couple of notches we can also expect the Sir Michael Stoute juggernaut to start picking up speed and churning out a steady stream of winners.

During April and May there is a vast array of horses hitting the track for the first time this season and it's inevitable that some yards are more adept than others at getting their string ready to fire on their seasonal debut. The Stoute yard are obviously one of the most powerful in the country and it's no surprise to see their name on the list of trainers that can produce 'fresh' horse either at or near their peak on their first run of the season.

Take a look at the stats for all Sir Michael Stoute's May seasonal debutants -

*Stats from the past 5 seasons - Using Proform

38 winners | 133 runners | 29% S/R | -£8.91 LSP | Win & Place 77/133 - 58% S/R

It’s clear from the above that the Stoute May runners are an over bet bunch but with a 29% S/R it pays to dig a little deeper.

All seasonal debutants in Group 3 races only

11 winners | 17 runners | 65% S/R | +£19.28 LSP | Win & Place 13/17 - 76% S/R

It's clear from the above sample that Stoute has his runners that contest the races just below the top levels fit and raring to go on their seasonal debuts.

Are these the types of angles that interest you?

If yes then simply enter your email address in the box at the top right-hand corner of the Blog ('Sign up for FREE NTF updates') and gain an exclusive sneaky peek at the NTF 90+ day trainers guide for the month of May.

If you are already on the FREE subscription list then you will already have the link and if you are on the paid NTF flat service then you will receive the full version of this guide before the start of May (it includes more trainers and many more angles than the FREE guide).

When you sign up to the Blog updates service you will be sent a conformation email (this may go to your junk folder so if it does be sure to mark as 'safe' for future updates). When you open the conformation email simply click on the link and you will then be sent an email with the link to download the FREE guide as well as another small bonus.

Proform

Before I go I just want to give a quick shout-out to the guys at Proform Racing. As you have probably guessed by now when it comes to horseracing and the way I like to approach my betting I’m all about the angles. It's safe to say the Proform database is the most robust and in-depth software I have so far used and if like myself you are a database junkie then Proform should be right at the top of your list.

Ben (NTF)

Ayr Scottish Grand National Meeting - Trainer Stats

2011-04-14T17:17:00.002+01:00

Ayr's Scottish Grand National Meeting is always a richly contested affair with a plethora of raiders making the trip from south of the border.

But who are the trainers we should be concentrating on and who should we be wary of?

Do the south send enough firepower up to plunder all the big prizes or do the north keep something up their sleeves to fend off the raiders?

*Stats from 2006 - 2010 - LSP to Betfair S/P - Using Proform Software

Nicky Henderson

The Seven Barrows trainer has the most victories of any trainer in recent season's and produces a minor LSP -

7 winners | 33 runners | 21% S/R | +£0.75 LSP | Win & Place 13/33 - 39% S/R

The Henderson Hurdlers seem more adept at tackling Ayr than his Chasers -

Hurdlers

4 winners | 19 runners | 21% S/R | +£5.64 LSP | Win & Place 10/19 - 53% S/R

Chasers

2 winners | 12 runners | 17% S/R | -£5.63 LSP | Win & Place 2/12 - 17% S/R

*the other winner came from 1 of his 2 bumper runners

On the betting front it's clear we don't want to be looking outside of the front 3 in the market when looking at the Henderson team -

SP fav - 4 winners | 7 runners | 57% S/R | +£6.85 LSP

1st 3 in the betting - 6 winners | 17 runners | 35% S/R | +£7.75 LSP

So only 1 of his 7 winners came from outside of the front 3.

Nicky Richards

A relatively short trip from his base in Cumbria and he usually has his string in fine fettle for this 2 day meeting -

5 winners | 26 runners | 19% S/R | +£16.06 LSP | Win & Place 8/26 - 31% S/R

The Richard's Hurdlers have been where the profits are at in recent seasons although it must be noted they have also supplied most of his runners -

Hurdlers

4 winners | 18 runners | 22% S/R | +£22.79 LSP | Win & Place 7/18 - 39% S/R

Chasers

1 winner | 6 runners | 17% S/R | -£4.73 LSP | Win & Place 1/6 - 17% S/R

Ferdy Murphy

Good old Ferdy seems to like to target this meeting and his overall figures stack up well -

5 winners | 26 runners | 19% S/R | +£19.09 LSP | Win & Place 9/26 - 35% S/R

However, it's when we dig a little deeper that things start to get interesting.

ALL 5 of his winners were returning to the track within 14 days of their last start -

Runners returning to track within 1 - 14 days of last start

5 winners | 8 runners | 63% S/R | +£37.09 LSP | Win & Place 7/8 - 88% S/R

The fact that only 1 failed to even place suggests this could be a well devised plan Mr Murphy has on the go here.....

Jim Goldie

Goldie doesn't fire a huge amount of bullets at this meeting but when he does it pays to take a closer interest -

4 winners | 14 runners | 29% S/R | +£58.12 LSP | Win & Place 7/14 - 50% S/R

Nigel Twiston Davies

Another who doesn't send as many as you may think to the 2 day meeting but his select few that have made the trip more than hold their own -

3 winners | 7 runners | 43% S/R | +£15.63 LSP | Win & Place 4/7 - 57% S/R

Paul Nicholls

The champion trainer is certainly not adverse to sending a number of runners to Scotland's premier jumps meeting, however, backing all of his runners would have left you with a gaping hole in your betting bank -

5 winners | 58 runners | 9% S/R | -£42.80 LSP | Win & Place 26/58 - 45% S/R

With 45% of the runners reaching the places it's not as if they hugely underperform but the figures are telling us that in the win market at least we should be looking to oppose them. It must also be noted that all 5 winners started at 4/1 or less and 4 of the 5 started at 6/4 or less.

Venetia Williams

The West coast of Scotland in April does not appear to be a happy hunting ground for Miss Williams -

0 winners | 12 runners | 0% S/R | -£12.00 LSP | Win & Place 1/12 - 8% S/R

With only 1 runner reaching the places it may pay to approach her runners with caution.

Jonjo O'Neill

It's not as if he attacks this meeting with a huge amount of gusto but the runners he has sent on the trip north hardly inspire confidence for any future raiders -

0 winners | 7 runners | 0% S/R | -£7.00 LSP | Win & Place 0/7 - 0% S/R

Small numbers for sure but 5 of the 7 have failed to even finish their race and only 1 runner was priced at bigger than 9/1 (i.e. they were not a bunch of outsiders). I'd be looking for reasons to swerve Jonjo's runners rather than reasons to back them.

Although I would never suggest taking these type of stats as gospel they are a good pointer as to which yards are likely to be targeting the meeting and which yards maybe don't have the correct ammo for Ayr in the spring time.

Now, time to get the form book out to see if Ferdy Murphy has any entries that ran in the past 14 days.....

p.s. if you want to be updated on new Blog post then enter your details in the form at the top right corner of the blog.

Ben (NTF)

Aintree 2011: NTF 3 to follow

2011-04-11T10:58:00.000+01:00

The end of season National Hunt festivals are coming at us thick and fast at the minute and no sooner had we put Cheltenham in the form book we now have to bid the Aintree Grand National meeting a heartfelt goodbye for another season.

Outside of the John Smith's Aintree Grand National itself there were plenty of performances to get excited about and here are 3 horses from last week's high class action that caught my attention for one reason or another -

GRANDIOSO (2-2-6-0-0 (10) / 2.33 / 0.60)

9th in Aintree Champion Bumper

The Howard Johnson 4yo first caught my eye when steamrollering his opponents at Musselburgh on his racecourse debut. He again travelled powerfully in this Grade 2 to make a challenge on the leaders turning for home but ultimately his challenge could not be sustained. There is every chance he found the ground a bit too lively and a return to ground with more cut in it should be more to his liking (won Musselburgh bumper on soft). His sire Westerner (2nd in Hurricane Run's Arc) is a stallion I think could make a big impact on the National Hunt scene and we are just starting to get his first jumping runners coming through now (already had a a listed chase winner in France). I expect GRANDIOSO to be the sort to run up a sequence of wins at the north tracks in the early part of the 2011/12 NH season before setting his sights on bigger targets later on in the season.

MON PARRAIN (5-1-10-0-0 (16) / 2.20 / 0.69)

2nd in the Topham Chase

Did he really fail to stay the trip or did Always Waining just stay that bit stronger? I would suggest that the trip was maybe just stretching him a touch but that shouldn't detract from the fact he jumped immaculately round the demanding National fences and travelled just as sweetly. He has now put together two superb rounds of jumping on his two British racecourse appearances (barely touched a twig at Sandown in March) and this 5yo looks like a very exciting prospect for next season whatever the plans may be.

WYSE HILL TEABAGS (2-0-8-4-2 (16) / 0.60 / -0.25)

3rd in Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle

Jim Goldie's gelding has now finished in the top 3 on his last 6 starts (winning 3) but I have the feeling that due to his 'unfashionable' connections he will more often than not be available at value odds (sp of 14-1 or bigger in 5 of last 6 starts). In this 2m4f handicap he met trouble in running at a vital stage but still managed to battle his way through to challenge going to the last where unfortunately he blundered his way over the obstacle. Despite both those setbacks jockey Richie McGrath still managed to galvanise one last effort from the 6yo and he was only beaten just over 1 length at the line. The 20f trip looks to suit him at the moment but in time I could see 3 miles being well within his stamina capabilities.

I would like to take this opportunity to wish young jockey Peter Toole all the best as he battles to recover from a serious head injury he sustained in a fall from Classic Fly on Saturday. I'm sure all NTF readers will join me is sending best wishes to his family and friends.

Ben (NTF)

3 from the weekend

2011-04-04T10:06:00.000+01:00

Despite the fact I am still in full National Hunt racing mode I have managed to have a dabble in the Flat action that is now roaring onto our screens.

Here are 3 horses from the weekend that caught my attention for one reason or another -

ETON RIFLES (6-4-12-0-0 (22) / 2.67 / 0.73)

5th in the Lincoln handicap at Doncaster

The Howard Johnson 6yo ran an eye-catching race in the feature event of the day on ground that may have been a touch on the lively side for him. He moved sweetly in the far side group until either fading or failing to quicken from the furlong pole. The Pivotal gelding is currently on a career high mark but there was no suggestion on Saturday that he can't defy his current rating. His best form looks to come on ground with at least the minimum amount of juice in it (good to soft or worse) and I have a feeling the 8 furlong trip of the Lincoln may just have stretched his stamina reserves to their limits. I'll be looking to have an interest in him when he gets his preferred ground and a drop back to 6 or 7 furlongs (although 8 furlongs may not be fully out of his grasp).

IRISH HEARTBEAT (7-2-7-0-0 (16) / 3.57 / 1.00)

10th in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster

Richard Fahey's gelding started favourite here but in truth never really managed to land a serious blow. The result of both the Spring Mile and the Lincoln suggested that the high numbers were the place to be so looking at the wider picture suggests that Irish Heartbeat didn't run a bad race from his 7 box. He is another that possibly prefers a bit of cut in the ground and despite winning last season's Spring Mile (8 furlong) I have a feeling that 6 and 7 furlongs may prove to be his ideal trip. His current mark of 96 may be right at the ceiling of his abilities so any leniency from the handicapper would not go amiss. One to keep an eye on with cut in ground, possible step back in trip and a little drop in the ratings.

BATED BREATH (6-3-9-0-0 (18) / 3.00 / 0.83)

10th in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster

Obviously a very talented beast but I'm starting to have my worries about him. I never like it when a horse starts getting excuses made for its defeats; 1 or 2 every now and again is fine but 3 in a row from only 6 career starts is a bit of a concern. If a horse continually finds trouble in running then something needs to be done. Bated Breath obviously has a race winning turn of foot so why not stick him closer to the pace, therefore lessening the chance of meeting traffic? He is evidently a smooth travelling horse so putting him closer to the pace should pose no significant problem; if he is as good as is being suggested then a small change in tactics should not be hard to implement. He currently sits in my 'talented but starting to concern me' pile.

Happy Punting

Ben (NTF)

King of the Spring (Novice Chasers)

2011-04-01T12:38:00.000+01:00

Spring time is here and for some that signifies the winding down of the jumps and the beginning of the flat.

However, there are still numerous betting opportunities to be had over the sticks and in today's post I want to concentrate on April Novice Chasers.

Are some trainers more adept than others at getting their novice chasers into the winners circle in April?

The following are a bunch of trainers that particularly caught my eye and it may well prove profitable to follow their novice chasers this month -

*Stats going back to 2005 (using Proform)

ALAN KING

34 runners | 10 winners | 29% S/R | +£49.32 BF LSP - Win & Place S/R 47%

Solid figures from the Barbury Castle yard. Interestingly Wayne Hutchinson seems to be the man to do the job on the April novice chasers as he has ridden 6 of the 34 and has won on an impressive 5 of them (5/6 for an 83% S/R).

PAUL NICHOLLS

82 runners | 22 winners | 27% S/R | +£4.44 BF LSP - Win & Place S/R 51%

No surprise to see the Nicholls yard up at the top of the list and also no surprise to see slim pickings on the LSP front. Perhaps the best area to concentrate on is Nicholls French Bred (FR) novices' as they have supplied 18 of the 22 winners; overall stats for the (FR) breds read - 18/56 | 32% S/R | +£22.73 BF LSP.

DAVID ARBUTHNOT

6 runners | 4 winners | 67% S/R | +£12.65 BF LSP - Win & Place S/R 83%

Not a name I would expect to see on this type of list but the figures don't lie. The yard had 2 runners in novice chases in April last year and both won; a sneaky one for us to keep an eye on.

GORDON ELLIOTT

6 runners | 3 winners | 50% S/R | +£3.69 BF LSP - Win & Place S/R 67%

The ever improving Gordon Elliott; 'nuff said! 4 of the 6 runners were at Perth with form figures at the track of 1-2-4-1.

It's not all positive though and here are a couple of trainers to approach with caution with regards to their April novice chasers -

VENETIA WILLIAMS

42 runners | 3 winners | 7% S/R | -£29.44 BF LSP - Win & Place S/R 24%

The win and place S/R of Miss Williams' April novice chasers isn't too bad but the win S/R is certainly a concern. Interestingly all 3 winners came at 2m4f and 2 of them started at odds-on.

COLIN TIZZARD

13 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£13.00 BF LSP - Win & Place S/R 15%

Not a huge sample for us to look at but with only 2 of the 13 reaching the places it would pay to tread carefully around the yards April novice chasers.

Happy Punting

Ben (NTF)

Cheltenham 2011: NTF 3 to follow

2011-03-20T22:38:00.001Z

The Cheltenham Festival 2011 has somehow been and gone and now sits firmly in the form books!

It's safe to say it was not my finest 4 days of punting but you learn to roll with the punches in this game.

Like everyone else either watching at home or at the track itself I stood and applauded the mighty Kauto Star and Denman after they had went to war against the up and coming French machine that is Long Run. Boy did the 2 old warriors give it one almighty, valiant effort to try and reclaim their crown. The sight of L'Extraterrestrial and The Tank going toe to toe up the Cheltenham hill will live long in my memory, it's why we love the game and it's why we just can't get enough of it.

Out with the 2 old boys there were plenty of other top class performances to drool over and the following 3 are a trio that I feel will have plenty more to give us over the coming seasons.

GRANDS CRUS

Perhaps a rather obvious one to start with but this 6yo strikes me as a potential superstar chaser in the making. Tom Scudamore gave the Pipe hurdler a supreme ride in Thursdays World Hurdle but the facts are he simply is not good enough to beat Big Bucks over hurdles (who is!!). What has always struck me is that Grands Crus 'jumps' his hurdles as opposed to Big Bucks who 'hurdles' his hurdles (to be honest Big Bucks barely breaks stride during a race), a sure sign that fences and not hurdles will be where we ultimately see the DOM ALCO gelding at his best. From what I can pick up from David Pipe's comments post-race they are undecided exactly which route to take next term although it does seem to me that fences are the preferred option.

The grey looks like he would be a natural over the bigger obstacles and in time he could potentially make into a Gold Cup contender. Put him away for the season and bring him back next term for a shot at chasing glory please David.

Potential 2011/12 targets: RSA Chase - Mildmay Novices' Chase

SPRINTER SACRE

This horse has always been considered a chasing type by the yard so his 3rd in Tuesday's Supreme Novices' hurdle was a particularly impressive display. He appeared to settle considerably better than in any of his previous hurdle starts and at one stage turning for home looked to be going best of all. He looks for all money to have the size and shape of a horse that will relish chasing and there is already word that he will be the Henderson Arkle horse for next season.

He is already marked down in my book as an exciting novice chaser for 2011/12.

Potential 2011/12 targets: Wayward Lad Novices' Chase - Arkle Chase

SALDEN LICHT

The Alan King trained 7yo put in a bold display under top-weight in Friday's County Hurdle to finish a gallant 2 length 5th (closing in on the leaders as the line approached). It's easy to forget that was only his 7th start over hurdles and there is plenty of decent form lines already on his CV (he also looked to be running a big race when brought down 2 out in this seasons Totesport Gold Cup). Alan King has always held this fella in high regard and it seems only a matter of time before he bags himself a big race.

Potential 2011/12 targets: Scope to move from handicaps into conditions races

Feel free to leave your own eye-catchers in the comments box below.

Ben (NTF)

Inexperience: No Handicap?

2011-03-08T15:46:00.003Z

I'm a bit surprised Gordy had to pull out of the Charity race due to 'weight issue's'.......

One of the angles that I look to utilise is trainers sending their chasers straight into handicaps for their debut chase run. There are some trainers that are rather adept at placing their young chasers in handicaps on their chasing debut and it's always worth taking a look when the situation arises.

Two trainers that are quite high on my list at the moment are Nigel Twiston Davies and Alan King.

Here are their associated statistics -

TWISTON DAVIES - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

80 runners | 17 winners | 21% S/R | +£35.81 LSP

The strike rate improves when we look at these types only in the month of October -

26 runners | 8 winners | 31% S/R | +£8.62 LSP

A KING - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

38 runners | 10 winners | 26% S/R | +£16.00 LSP

GORDON ELLIOTT is also starting to appear on the radar although at the moment it's on a smaller scale than the previous 2 -

5 runners | 3 winners | 60% S/R | +£16.00 LSP

The Elliott angle is possibly the most interesting as it could be that it's currently skimming under the radar.

From this trainer/debut/handicap angle I decided to have a little dig about and try and approach it from an alternative direction; I set about researching to see if instead of trainers it would also work for sires.

Are certain sire's offspring more capable than others at winning first time up over fences when they are pitched straight into a handicap?

My logic behind this was that some sires produce markedly better chasers than they do hurdlers so if a chase debutant was being thrown in to a handicap off its hurdle rating then there is every chance it will start it's chasing career 'well in'.

It's early days for my research but so far I have uncovered a handful of sires that suggest their offspring may be worth following when taking their first chasing steps in a handicap -

MIDNIGHT LEGEND - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

20 runners | 7 winners | 35% S/R | +£29.50 LSP

This is the one that interests me the most as Midnight Legend is a sire that gives quite a few profitable angles and is also I sire I like a lot. The 35% strike-rate is very eye-catching indeed.

FLEMENSFIRTH - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

31 runners | 6 winners | 19% S/R | +£72.67 LSP

The LSP is really interesting and it actually comes from a few big priced winners (as opposed to just one 66/1 winner + a few shorties) and suggests these types are regularly being over looked in the market. It's also interesting to note there are also a few double priced placed horses in the sample as well.

CLOUDINGS - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

23 runners | 6 winners | 26% S/R | +£25.50 LSP

A less fashionable NH sire maybe but on this angle alone he should be of interest to us.

As I mentioned this is an angle I'm still looking into but the early sign are encouraging and it's definitely something I want to look deeper into.

I also decided to combine the angles above and I came up with this rather interesting angle -

A KING trained MIDNIGHT LEGEND offspring - Chase debutants - First time out in a handicap

3 runners | 3 winners | 100% S/R | +£17.00 LSP

Is this something that is likely to continue? I wouldn't count on it but for the moment at least it makes for pretty interesting reading!!

2011 NTF Cheltenham Festival Guide

The doors are now open!!

http://www.narrowthefield.co.uk/

21 of the 27 races at next week's Cheltenham Festival will be covered in the guide where I will use a mix of Trends analysis and Dosage stats to pinpoint the likely winners and lively outsiders.

Remember the beauty of my guides is that you don't just have to follow my selections. Each race is analysed over 5 pages and you can see exactly how I came to my own selections. If you disagree with my selection and think you can put the stats to better use then the guides are set up so that is also an option for you.

Most people that purchased last season's guide followed my own selections and that resulted in over 80 pts profit at Betfair SP. However, some people also used the guide to find winners or placed horses that I hadn't highlighted. As I mentioned this is how the guides are set out - you can back my selections, you can back your own selections based on the stats or you can mix and match as you please.

The first draft of the guide will be sent out on Friday (incomplete) with full analysis being available the evening before each day of the festival. I personally like to get a complete picture of the race (exactly who will be turning up, how the race is likely to shape up, what the ground will be like) so this is why complete analysis won't be with you until the evening before.

When you do purchase this year's guide you will be able to download a trainer guide that was sent out to my National Hunt subscribers at the start of the month that also has a section on 90+ days runners at the Cheltenham Festival itself. You will then receive the first draft of the 2011 guide this Friday.

The 6 races that are not analysed by myself are -

The Cross Country Chase - The Mares Hurdle - The Centenary Novices Chase - The Jewson Chase - The Foxhunters Chase - The Martin Pipe Hurdle

For one reason or another these races are not suitable for my methods.

All others races get the full NTF treatment!

Follow the link and grab the guide -

http://www.narrowthefield.co.uk/

£24.97 for the best alternative Cheltenham guide on the planet!!

Grab your copy before the places fill up.

Ben (NTF)

Wonder Woman Williams!

2011-02-25T23:51:00.000Z

Based in Herefordshire and with the accolade of being only the second female to train the winner of the Aintree Grand National, Venetia Williams remains one of those trainers that can be relied upon to send out a stream of National Hunt winner's season upon season.

Probably now most famous for her 100-1 Grand National winner MON MOME it should not be forgotten that she has also trained and nurtured other high class beasts such as TEETON MILL, LADY REBECCA, IDOLE FIRST, NORDANCE PRINCE and Welsh National winner JOCKS CROSS.

Like most top yards the Williams stable also supplies us punters with many trends that we can profit from.

But where do these trends and sweet spots exist?

What tracks should we be concentrating on when Venetia is in town?

Where do her runners struggle to make an impact?

Do her runners struggle at certain times of the year?

Which jockeys show the best (and worst) strike rates for the yard?

Let's take a look......

TRACKS

The first thing that struck me when looking through the stables course stats was that there are not really any tracks where they have an overall poor profile. There are certain race types at specific courses where their runners struggle but in general terms the show solid enough stats at most tracks.

However, I wanted to find some sweet spots and negative trends so I went digging and came up with the following -

Ludlow

This was the one track where we could say her runners do show a solid all-round performance -

109 runners | 25 winners | 23% S/R | +£71.53 LSP

The strike-rate can be improved dramatically if we only look at their runners in non-handicap Chases -

12 runners | 6 winners | 50% S/R | +£22.20 LSP

Warwick

All handicap hurdles

17 runners | 6 winners | 35% S/R | +£15.50 LSP

This angle becomes even more impressive when we consider that 12 of the 17 have finished in the top 3 for a 71% top 3 strike-rate.

As previously mentioned it's hard to pin down a real 'negative' track for the Williams yard but I have unearthed 3 track angles that we should be very wary of -

Cheltenham

Venetia is more than capable of pulling of a handicap coup or 2 at Prestbury Park, however when it comes to her runners in non-handicaps the stats are telling us that her runners are best avoided -

Runners in all non-handicap races

35 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£35.00 LSP

Aintree

The same rule also applies to Aintree -

Runners in all non-handicap races

25 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£25.00 LSP

Kempton

All hurdle runners

39 runners | 2 winners | 5% S/R | -£28.75 LSP

JOCKEYS

Aidan Coleman is firmly in the driving seat when it comes to riding for the yard and he takes a massive chunk of rides throughout the season. With such a high volume of rides it's not easy to pinpoint the sweet spots but here are a couple that caught my eye -

Coleman/Williams combo - Favs in All Non-Handicap Chases

22 runners | 13 winners | 59% S/R | +£5.83 LSP

Coleman/Williams combo - All Ludlow Chasers

15 runners | 6 winners | 40% S/R | +£6.20 LSP

High strike-rates and minor profits on the LSP side but the main thing is they show a profit.

There is currently a young jockey picking up a number of rides for the yard, however, either his riding style does not suit the horses or he is yet to be given a leg up on one with a real chance -

Harry Challoner

41 rides | 1 winners | 2% S/R | -£38.13 LSP

For whatever reason Mr Challoner and the Williams horses just do not seem to strike a happy balance.

MONTHS

No real super strong months for Venetia's horses but there is one mini angle that caught my attention in April -

April - Non-Handicap hurdlers over 20f or less - SP 9/4 or less

13 runners | 8 winners | 62% S/R | +£6.64 LSP

It's a skinny one but it's profitable and if they have a fancied runner in these types of races in April it's worth at least a second glance.

There are a couple of times in the year when the yards runners are maybe not quite firing on all cylinders -

August

26 runners | 1 winner | 4% S/R | -£22 LSP

Obviously more of a rest month for the yard and anything they do send out maybe isn't fully tuned up or simply not up to the job.

October

124 runners | 6 winners | 5% S/R | -£78.75 LSP

The National Hunt season is slowly starting to warm up at this stage but it also looks like the yards runners are slowly warming up as well. A time for watching or laying rather than punting.

FAVOURITES

It's always handy to know if a yard can be relied upon to do the business when the weight of money is behind one of their runners. The Williams yard has a decent overall record with favs but there is one area that they seem to really excel in when the money is down -

Favourites in Non-Handicap Chases

72 runners | 39 winners | 54% S/R | +£11.27 LSP

The Venetia Williams yard is possibly one of the most popular amongst National Hunt fans and if we take the time to dig deep we can also make it a profitable yard for ourselves.

A big part of my punting approach is about building profitable angles and although some of the above may look a bit on the slim side they all count in the bigger picture.

Does anyone else have any alternative 'Venetia angles' that they utilise?

Feel free to discuss them in the comments section of this post.

NTF Cheltenham Festival Guide 2011

It's the one you have all be waiting on!

Work is currently under way on this year's NTF Cheltenham festival guide. I've got some way to go to better last year's effort but I'll damn well give it my best shot!!

Last season's guide produced over 80pts LSP (BF SP) and included such punting gems as -

POKER DE SIVOLA - 14/1

WEAPONS AMNESTY - 10/1

SPIRIT RIVER - 14/1

ALBERTAS RUN - 14/1

GREAT ENDEAVOUR - 18/1

SOLDATINO - 6/1

BARIZAN - 14/1 (E/W)

DEE EE WILLIAMS - 20/1 E/W

This year's guide promises to be BIGGER and BETTER than last year with even more info packed in and plenty of trends to get your festival juices flowing.

Sign up to the FREE NTF updates list (top right hand corner of Blog) to be kept up to date with the news on this years NTF Cheltenham Festival guide - you really don't want to miss out!!

Ben (NTF)

Yes, Sir Peter Bowen Take's The Stand

2011-02-14T16:35:00.000Z

Responsible for numerous 'fans favourites' such as SWANSEA BAY, MR ED, BALLYCASSIDY, MCKELVEY, TAKE THE STAND, SNOOPY LOOPY & YES SIR, Pembrokes trainer PETER BOWEN is someone who can be relied upon to train his fair share of winners each season.

Situated deep in the Welsh countryside Bowen maybe does not train many superstars at his Little Newcastle yard but he does show consistent trends that us punters can profit from.

But where do these trends exist?

Which tracks does he regularly plunder?

Which tracks is he likely to leave empty handed?

What time of year to his runners thrive the most?

Which pilots should we pay close attention to and which ones should we avoid?

Let's find out.........

TRACKS

Folkestone

The opposite end of the country for Bowen but if he is willing to make the trip there is a good chance he will land the spoils -

11 runners | 5 winners | 45% S/R | +£12.95 LSP

The runners are few and far between and the stats tell us that Bowen does not like making the trip unless he thinks his runner has an excellent chance.

Hereford (All race types except non-handicap hurdles)

57 runners | 11 winners | 19% S/R | +£41.35 LSP

Slightly closer to home for Bowen and if we remove his non-handicap hurdlers we see his runners operate at a solid level.

* Non-handicap hurdlers at Hereford are 0/27

Sedgefield

39 runners | 11 winners | 28% S/R | +£10.98 LSP

Solid figures but we can dramatically improve them if we only look at the yards runners in non-handicap races -

16 runners | 8 winners | 50% S/R | +£19.98 LSP

A 50% strike-rate is not to be sniffed at.

Aintree

Despite not being one of the major yards in the country their runners show up remarkably well in handicap hurdles run at the Liverpool track -

38 runners | 11 winners | 29% S/R | +£29.83 LSP

Handicap hurdles at Aintree are generally competitive affairs but the stats suggest Bowen targets these races and targets them well.

The following tracks are ones I would approach the Bowen runners with a great deal of caution -

Taunton

24 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£24.00 LSP

*Only 4 runners have placed

Doncaster

21 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£26.00 LSP

*Only 4 runners have placed

Ascot

25 runners | 1 winner | 4% S/R | -£8.00 LSP

*Only 4 runners have made the top 3

Kempton

23 runners | 1 winners | 4% S/R | -£19.75 LSP

*Only 4 runners have made the top 3

Wincanton

42 runners | 2 winners | 5% S/R | -£34.88 LSP

*12/42 (29%) have actually failed to finish their race

Cheltenham

An overall record of 5/81 (6% S/R) isn't great but considering how competitive the racing at the track is I suppose for a yard with limited firepower 5/81 is not too bad. However, if we look at only the yards hurdle runners at the track we do see a strong negative trend -

30 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£30.00 LSP

*Only 3 have actually run into a place

Bowen's recent Cheltenham Festival record is also starting to look poor -

22 runners | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£22.00 LSP

*Only 1 runner from the 22 has placed although it was TAKE THE STAND finishing 2nd in the 2005 Gold Cup!

JOCKEYS

Tom O'Brien

Tom O'Brien picks up a vast amount of rides for the yard but it's difficult to pinpoint profitable angles. However, if we dig a bit there is one angle that turns a decent strike-rate and level stakes profit -

Bowen/O'Brien - Handicap hurdles at 2m5f or further - SP 10/1 or less

88 runners | 22 winners | 25% S/R | +£30.70 LSP

As I mentioned you have to dig a little but with 1 in 4 of these rides winning it worth taking the time to look.

Richard Johnson

Johnson takes his fair share of rides for the Bowen team and the overall stats actually make for not bad reading -

143 runners | 34 winners | 24% S/R | -£2.41 LSP

LSP shows a small loss but 24% strike-rate tells us it's a partnership we should look closer at. I did touch upon this combo in my last post but this time I want to solely concentrate on the 2 when they team up in bumpers -

17 runners | 5 winners | 29% S/R | +£5.25 LSP

What is even more impressive is the top 3 strike-rate of the combo in bumpers - 14/17 have made the top 3 for an astonishing 82% top 3 bumper strike-rate!!

The next 2 jockeys are 2 that struggle to get the Bowen runners home in front -

Oliver Dayman

52 runners | 2 winners | 4% S/R | -£28.00 LSP

Bowen has not used the young jockey much in recent months and with figures like the above it's not hard to understand why.

Christian Williams

76 runners | 4 winners | 5% S/R | -£65.52 LSP

Poor return from Williams on the Bowen horses and again this is another jockey that the yard have not used in recent seasons. However, should the partnership be rekindled anytime soon it would pay to steer well clear of them.

MONTHS

May

The season may be winding down for a majority of yards but at this time of year but in Pembrokeshire they are just starting to warm up -

225 runners | 47 winners | 21% S/R | +£44.08 LSP

The stats tell us this is when the yard are at their most potent especially when we look at their runners that contest non-handicap races -

95 runners | 25 winners | 26% S/R | +£49.93 LSP

July

Further on into the summer and we still find the yard operating at a consistent level. This time around it is their handicappers we should be concentrating on -

120 runners | 22 winners | 18% S/R | +£93.46 LSP

On the flip side the yards runners really seem to struggle when we are in the depths of winter -

December

159 runners | 8 winners | 5% S/R | -£82.90 LSP

January

162 runners | 16 winners | 10% S/R | -£54.20 LSP

In short the months angle reads - Summer = YES | Winter = NO

The Bowen yard offer up plenty of positive and negative angles for us to explore and exploit and we really should be taking advantage of these angles when the situation arises.

Ben (NTF)

Will he ever be the champ?

2011-02-07T18:34:00.002Z

He is the second most winning National Hunt jockey in history but he has never yet managed to capture the jockey's championship. How he must rue that man McCoy!

Obviously I'm talking about the one and only Richard Johnson. A jockey that can confidently be relied upon to ride 120+ winners each and every season yet will never get the adulation he deserves as he has been unfortunate enough to be riding in the era of a legend; an unstoppable machine-like never say die legend!

Still Johnson doesn't appear to let the presence of McCoy get him down and simply gets on with the job of booting home the winners. As long he continues in this vain we can look to dig out the profitable angles that a man with over 2000 winners to his name surely produces (as well as having a root about to find his negative zones).

Can we profit when he is on the favourites?

What tracks does it pay to follow him at and where should we be carefullwith our hard earned?

Which trainers give him superstars to ride and which ones leg him up on duds?

Let's find out......

TRAINERS

Phillip Hobbs

Phillip Hobbs obviously supplies Johnson with the vast majority of his mounts but it's hard to get any concrete angles on the pair. However, there does appear to be one area that profits may be squeezed from the duo -

Bumper runners making their NH debut for the Hobbs/Johnson combo

61 rides | 12 winners | 20% S/R | +£12.00 LSP

It's not much but at the moment the stats suggest we can profit from this angle.

Peter Bowen

Richard Johnson takes a number of mounts for the Welsh trainer and his chasers and bumper runners look the best area for us punters to concentrate on -

Bowen/Johnson combo (except hurdle races)

79 rides | 22 winners | 28% S/R | +£14.73 LSP

A solid strike rate for the pairing and a positive LSP to boot.

Alison Thorpe

The jockey has not actually had a ride for Miss Thorpe since May 2010 but if they do happen to reacquaint themselves anytime soon we should certainly be taking notice -

Thorpe/Johnson combo (hurdles only)

179 rides | 42 winners | 24% S/R | +£67.90 LSP

For whatever reason Johnson struggles to get the following 3 trainers horses home in front -

J J O'Neill (*not ridden for the yard for over a year)

28 rides | 1 winner | 4% S/R | -£19.00 LSP

S Gollings

22 rides | 1 winner | 5% S/R | -£19.50 LSP

N Mulholland

12 rides | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£12.00 LSP

TRACKS

Like any jockey the perennial championship runner-up has tracks he performs better at than others and some he just can't quite master -

Fakenham (All handicap chases)

15 rides | 7 winners | 47% S/R | +£16.42 LSP

Impressive chase handicap figures from Johnson at the Norfolk track. Incidentally none of the winners were trained by his boss Phillip Hobbs.

Market Rasen (All non-handicap races)

61 rides | 16 winners | 26% S/R | +£27.95 LSP

Pleasing stats for Johnson with a solid strike-rate and LSP to his name at the track.

Ffos Las (all NHF races)

13 rides | 7 winners | 54% S/R | +£20.25 LSP

A cracking strike-rate and LSP in the bumpers at the newest track on the NH circuit for Johnson who has wasted no time in getting to grips with the track; a 54% strike-rate is something to take note of.

Again there are negatives for the jockey and these are just as important for us to consider -

Newbury (All handicap chases)

67 rides | 4 winners | 6% S/R | -£42.67 LSP

For some reason the jockey struggles in handicaps at the Grade 1 track.

Newbury (All bumper races)

24 rides | 1 winner | 4% S/R | -£7.00 LSP

The complete opposite of his bumper superiority at Ffos Las here with only the 1 solitary winner in recent seasons.

Aintree (All chase races)

50 rides | 2 winners | 4% S/R | -£29.50 LSP

The Mildmay and national fences seem to have been a challenge for Johnson in recent seasons with only a paltry 4& strike-rate to his name at the track.

Sandown (All handicap races)

83 rides | 4 winners | 5% S/R | -£35.00 LSP

It could simply be the competitive nature of the Sandown handicaps that are responsible for the jockey's poor record but the stats are telling us his handicap winners at the track are few and far between. Kilcrea Kim's win on Saturday in the big Handicap Hurdle actually broke a 41 race losing streak for the jockey in these types of races.

MONTHS

As I mentioned in my last post this is not an angle that I generally consider, however, if you dig deep enough sometimes you will stumble across some truly remarkable stats -

R Johnson mounts in Handicap Chases in the month of May

109 rides | 27 winners | 25% S/R | +£43.37 LSP

The above stat is pretty impressive in itself but check it gets better -

R Johnson/T Vaughan combo in Handicap Chases in the month of May

15 rides | 12 winners | 80% S/R | +£24.25 LSP

An 80% strike-rate is a crazy figure! Certainly something to look forward to in May.......

FAVOURITES

Perhaps surprisingly Richard Johnson doesn't have a great record on favourites. It's not bad by any stretch but one would imagine that he his hugely over bet when riding a favourite and that shows on his LSP return.

His stats when riding favourites in handicap hurdles take the biggest battering -

275 rides | 69 winners | 25% S/R | -£56.83 LSP

The relatively low 25% win S/R is a tad surprising and highlights the need to pick and choose when you back a Richard Johnson ridden Fav in a handicap hurdle.

The tricky thing when looking for positive and negative angles for a jockey like Richard Johnson is that he has a lot of middle ground stats i.e. neither really good or really bad. A lot of his stats suggest he is simply ticking away at a solid level, picking up a regular amount of winners each season.

That's not to suggest he isn't a talented jockey, in fact it's probably the exact opposite. The fact he can continually maintain this level year in and year out underlines the strength and talent of the man, it just means we as punters have to really dig deep for his sweet spots and negative zones.

If only McCoy weren't about, eh Richard.......

Ben (NTF)

Costello Chasing Gold....

2011-01-24T16:37:00.000Z

In what is looking an increasingly open Cheltenham Gold Cup could an improving handicapper called Midnight Chase with a clear fondness for the undulations of Prestbury Park steal the show?

His regular pilot DOUGIE COSTELLO will certainly be hoping the Neil Mulholland trained 9yo continues his progress and at the same time continues to put himself firmly in the minds of the racing world.

Since Costello made the move from Ireland to Britain around 10 years ago he has found himself with the solid job of regular pilot for Yorkshire based trainer John Quinn. However, 27yo Costello is a jockey that picks up rides for a vast array of stables, this season alone he has ridden for 44 different yards with some notable performances on horses such as the aforementioned MIDNIGHT CHASE as well as WAYWARD PRINCE, MONET'S GARDEN and I'MONCLOUDNINE, to name but a few.

But where can we profit from the lad?

Where can we back him with confidence and where should we avoid him like the plague?

Can he be relied upon to bring home the bacon when the money is down?

Let's find out -

TRAINERS

JOHN QUINN

As mentioned already it is the John Quinn yard that supply most ammo to Costello and impressively the combo shows a decent Level Stakes Profit on all rides -

382 rides | 61 winners | 16% S/R | +£26.69 LSP

If we look a bit closer we can improve those bare figures a touch.

If we narrow down the rides to only those that started at SP 9/1 or less we get the following -

238 rides | 52 winners | 22% S/R | +£30.69 LSP

Solid stats from quite a large sample size.

NEIL MULHOLLAND

When Costello gets the leg up on one of the yards chasers we really should take notice -

58 rides | 15 winners | 26% S/R | +£31.14 LSP

This partnership is still providing value despite the success of Midnight Chase and we would be wise to keep them on side, especially when the 2 team up over fences.

MRS L B NORMILE

The jockey has not ridden for the yard a great deal recently but should he take a mount from the yard sometime soon we should definitely give it a closer look -

25 rides | 5 winners | 20% S/R | +£77.50 LSP

This is a duo that has been massively overlooked when they team up.

ALISTAIR WHILLANS

Costello has only had a handful of rides for the small yard but when he is on one he has made it pay -

9 rides | 3 winners | 33% S/R | +£31.00 LSP

To further bolster this already impressive partnerships stats Costello has steered all 9 mounts home in the first 5.

Not all positive though and it's probably best to be wary when the jockey teams up with the next two yards -

BRIAN STOREY

48 rides | 1 winner | 2% S/R | -£41.50 LSP

J J LAMBE

14 rides | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£14.00 LSP

Tracks

AINTREE

54 rides | 11 winners | 20% S/R | +£33.88 LSP

The Liverpool track is one where Costello thrives at although none of the 11 winners have been over the National fences.

TOWCESTER

16 rides | 5 winners | 31% S/R | +£15.75 LSP

Limited visits to the track but when he does make the journey take note.

WINCANTON

19 rides | 4 winners | 21% S/R | +£0.50 LSP

Decent enough stats on their own but they can be improved a touch if we only look at rides at 2m5f or less -

14 rides | 4 winners | 29% S/R | +£5.50 LSP

All 4 winners have come at the shorter distances.

NEWCASTLE

Overall stats for the jockey at Gosforth Park are OK but it's his bumper rides that I want to highlight here -

10 rides | 5 winners | 50% S/R | +£14.10 LSP

Robust stats on show in bumpers and ones that look even better when we only consider his mounts for Alan Swinbank -

4 rides | 3 winners | 75% S/R | +£6.60 LSP

Again there are negatives for the jockey and these are just as important for us to consider -

SOUTHWELL

47 rides | 1 winner | 2% S/R | -£41.00 LSP

HEREFORD

30 rides | 1 winner | 3% S/R | -£18.00 LSP

CARTMEL

44 rides | 2 winners | 5% S/R | -£32.50 LSP

MUSSELBURGH

97 rides | 6 winners | 6% S/R | -£59.09 LSP

The Musselburgh Strike Rate dips even further if we only consider Costello's mounts in handicaps -

49 rides | 1 victory | 2% S/R | -£40.00 LSP

Certainly an area we should be cautious of when looking to back the jockey.

Months

Not generally an angle I consider much on the jockey front but there is a rather worrying summer trend for Costello -

All rides in July

94 rides | 4 winners | 4% S/R | -£51.50 LSP

Does he not like the sun on his back?!? It's more than likely the yards he rides for at that time of the year don't have their strings in peak condition but whatever the cause of his poor record it's there and we should be aware of it.

All non-handicap chases

Overall the jockey has a solid record in these types of races -

140 rides | 23 winners | 16% S/R | +£42.02 LSP

The strike rate on these types of runners can be improved significantly if we look at his record when riding favourites in these contests -

16 rides | 8 winners | 50% S/R | +£1.93 LSP

The LSP isn't much to shout about but a 50% Strike Rate is impressive and if we consider all 16 of these mounts have finished in the top 3 it's safe to say Costello is a good man to have on top of a favourite in a non-handicap chase.

To me Dougie Costello is one of the most underrated jockeys on the National Hunt circuit and surely it can't be long before more of the top yards start looking in his direction, especially if he can guide Midnight Chase to further glory.

Ben (NTF)

Is there life left in our High Street betting shops?

2011-01-18T18:13:00.001Z

Are the high street bookies dying a slow and painful death?

Is online the only place to be?

Do the betting shop characters still exist or are they a dying breed never to be replaced?

Are betting shops now purely catering for the mug punters and the fixed-odds betting terminal junkies?

Hell, does anyone actual go to the betting shops these days?!?

Well tomorrow I'm going to 'investigate' and find out!

To be honest I can't remember the last time I placed a bet in a betting shop. Sure I've nipped in to watch a race when I've been away (dragged shopping!) from NTF HQ, but actually hand over money to strike a serious wager? No idea!

When I first got into racing/betting I was never out of my local betting shops. My first job when I left school (and before I went on to study Graphic Design) was as a baker and every lunchtime would be spent in the nearest bookies. Sure I made some money, landed a few lumpy bets, but I wasn't really turning a profit overall. Then I found the world of online betting. What an eye-opener! I had a plethora of racing trends and stats at my disposal, and a multitude of information that I had never even contemplated before! Information that simply was not available to me in my local betting shop! What's more I didn't even have to leave home to place my bets! I had my choice of where to place my bets and I didn't have to deal with any grumpy staff!! Add into this the exchanges (which opened up another whole world of possibilities to me!!) and it was bye bye to the betting shops for me.

But I do have a soft spot for the bookies. I spent a lot of my youth in them. I used to love watching the old geezers throwing a tantrum because "that b@stard jockey doesn't know his @rse from his t!t" or showing off their winning betting slip shouting "I knew that f@cker was going to win, Big Davie told me last night when we were out catching rabbits!!".

I want to see if there is still a call for the high street betting shops. Are they really heading down the crapper with only the FOBT's attracting the customers?

So tomorrow I'm braving the area of Kirkcaldy that Mrs NTF and I have nicknamed **********! The area is actually called ********** but if I were to describe it as one of the least desirable areas in Kirkcaldy I would be being kind!!

The reason I'm heading there is because within 50 yards of each other are a WILLIAM HILL, LADBROKES and a CORAL betting shop. I'm going to spend an entire afternoon moving between the three to see exactly what life is like in our high street betting shops in 2011.

I will be TWEETING live from each shop with regular updates throughout the day hopefully regaling tales of local characters, friendly staff and a plethora of punters streaming through the doors!

To keep myself interested I will also be setting myself a challenge.

I'm going to try and survive on my racing wits and the information available in the shops to try and turn a profit on the day from a £10 bank!

I have not looked at tomorrow's cards and I don't intend to until I enter my first shop at 12pm tomorrow lunchtime. Is there enough information in-shop for me to turn a profit from my tenner or will I be relying on 'Big Davie' or 'Smelly Jim' to dig me out of a punting hole with their tips as the day passes!!

Obviously this experiment could fall flat on its face. If there are no punters in the shops then it's going to be a bloody boring day, even with my £10 challenge running along in the background!

As I said I'll be tweeting live (how exciting!!) throughout the day so if you don't already follow me on Twitter then you better do so now -

Twitter name - @Narrowthefield

Let's see what tomorrow brings......

Ben (NTF)

Campbell's Condensed Stats!

2011-01-17T16:32:00.000Z

He wears pink wellies when he's riding out; for a jockey he has a singing voice to rival any X-factor winner (is that a compliment?!) and he also owns a little Jack Russell that wanders about the yard showing no fear to the monstrous beasts that surround him!

Obviously the young man in question here is Lucinda Russell's young jockey Campbell Gillies. The jockey displayed his talents on terrestrial TV on 'Super Saturday' when failing by the agonising distance of a head on Safari Adventures to hold off the Barry Geraghty ridden Polyfast in the class 3 chase at Kempton that opened Channel 4's 'King George' day coverage.

I've been fortunate enough to watch young Campbell at close quarters in the schooling ring and it's obvious to me this is a jockey going places. Along with his seemingly natural talent for producing a horse beautifully at an obstacle he is also showing his talents on the track for being a fine judge of pace. Again Safari Adventure at Kempton is a fine example of this along with his brilliantly executed ride on Nelliedonethat at Musselburgh on Friday.

As much as I admire his riding skills it's really the stats that go along with Campbell that interest me most. Where can us punters profit from his riding skills? Where are his sweet spots? Where does the jockey need to improve before we steam in to back him?

It's still early days for Campbell Gillies but I've had a dig about for some angles that we can get stuck into -

Favourites

Perhaps surprisingly the jockey shows profits under all codes (Chase/Hurdle/NHF) when he is on board a favourite -

57 rides | 26 winners | 46% S/R | +£27.80 LSP

If the money is down the stats are telling us that Campbell will get the horse home almost 50% of the time.

Impressive stats this early in his career.

Trainers

Lucinda Russell

The bulk of his rides come from the Lucinda Russell yard and due in no small part to a 66/1 winner at Aintree a couple of season's back he does actually show a profit on all rides for the stable -

202 rides | 29 Winners | 14% S/R | +£58.27 LSP

Despite the huge winner manipulating the stats a touch the 14% S/R is still decent. However, we can improve on this a touch by looking at only the rides he has for the yard that start at SP 6/1 or less -

71 rides | 20 winners | 28% S/R | +£8.77 LSP

Obviously a much lower LSP but the stats are telling us that he is more than adept at getting fancied runners home in front.

Willie Amos

The jockey possibly first sprung to the attention of many a punter as the regular pilot of Willie Amos's stable star LIE FORRIT (unfortunately currently injured).

Overall stats look pretty healthy when the 2 team up -

57 rides | 11 winners | 19% S/R | +£128.92 LSP

The LSP is helped considerably by a 100-1 winner a 33-1 winner and a 14-1 winner suggesting that outside of the Lie Forrit rides the pairing have been considerably overlooked in the market.

M E Sowersby

For one reason or another the jockey doesn't have the greatest of records when riding for the Yorkshire based trainer -

58 rides | 2 winners | 3% S/R | -£44.00 LSP

Not a pairing I would be looking to back anytime soon.

Tracks

There are no real strong tracks for Campbell at the moment but there are plenty of 'sub' angles at individual tracks that we should take a closer look at.

Cartmel

All Hurdle rides

16 rides | 5 winners | 31% S/R | +£6.15 LSP

Solid record and one that can be improved when looking at his Hurdle rides that start at 6/1 or shorter -

8 rides | 5 winners | 63% S/R | +£14.15 LSP

All winners have come on his more fancied mounts, another example of him doing the business on shorter priced mounts.

Kelso

All Hurdle rides

32 rides | 5 wins | 16% S/R | +£27.00 LSP

Another solid hurdling track for the jockey but once again we can improve these stats, this time by looking at his hurdle mounts over 18 furlongs (2m2f) or shorter -

24 rides | 5 winners | 21% S/R | +£35.00 LSP

All wins have come over the shorter trips.

Musselburgh

Young Gillies has an exceptional record with his chase mounts at the Edinburgh track -

10 rides | 5 winners | 50% S/R | +£19.75 LSP

Quite a stat when we compare it to the record of Lucinda Russell's stable jock Peter Buchanan and his chase record at Musselburgh -

36 rides | 2 winners | 6% S/R | -£26.67 LSP

Quite a contrast between the 2.......

Cheltenham

Not a huge amount of rides at the track to assess but he does have an interesting (if small) record in Handicap Hurdles at Prestbury Park -

8 rides | 2 wins | 25% S/R | +£16.75 LSP

Certainly something to keep in mind....

There are also a couple of tracks that the jockey has been struggling to get to grips with -

All rides at Newcastle

41 rides | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£41.00 LSP

So far Gosforth Park has been anything but a happy hunting ground for Campbell.

All rides at Uttoxeter

11 rides | 0 winners | 0% S/R | -£11.00 LSP

On the face of it the record isn't that bad but if we look a bit closer we actually see that he is yet to finish any better than 7th with any of his mounts. Seems he's not quite getting to grips with the Uttoxeter lay-out.

Starting Price

As with a couple of the angle highlighted above it is again his mounts that start at the lower end of the market that interest me, specifically his ones in Handicap Chases -

All Handicap Chases when starting at 4/1 or lower

45 rides | 16 winners | 36% S/R | +£18.00 LSP

Very healthy for someone who doesn't ride a huge amount of fancied runners.

Even more impressive is his record at getting the above group of runners home in the first 3 -

45 rides | 35 placed | 78% top 3 S/R

78% of his 4/1 and under chase rides home in the money is a big stat. Not necessarily something we can profit from but certainly a stat that highlights the young lad burgeoning talents.

It's questionable how long Campbell Gillies will stay as second fiddle to Peter Buchanan as it's my opinion someone else will snap the young lad up sooner rather than later.

He's going places; we just have to make sure we know where to profit from his talents.

Betting School

Just a quick note to point you guys in the direction of Betting School.

I've been writing a column for them for almost a year now I'd imagine there are still plenty of NTF readers that may not be aware of them.

There are a number of racing/betting folks that contribute to the site and plenty of video tutorials and such like to aid and abet your daily punting.

Take a look at the Betting School site for yourself, I'm sure there's something on there that will catch your eye.

Ben (NTF)

On-Fire Maguire!

2011-01-14T16:07:00.000Z

He is relatively tall for a jockey (5ft 11in), the minimum weight he has managed to slim down to in recent seasons is 10st 5lbs and he has recently acquired the unhealthy habit of picking up an injury or two! Despite these minor 'inconveniences' Jason Maguire has stepped up from the role of a potential journeyman jockey to sit in that small band of top class pilots that occupy the positions directly behind Messrs McCoy and Johnson in the jump jockeys table.

It certainly helps to be connected to the ever flourishing Donald McCain Jnr & Gordon Elliott yards but Maguire still needs to have the 'skills to pay the bills' in terms of steering his mounts to success. Last season was easily his best in terms of numbers of winners (108) and quality of winners and despite an injury interrupted season this term Maguire has already bagged 55 winners, including a Grade 1 on McCain's stable star PEDDLERS CROSS.

With the Maguire star firmly on the ascent it's prime time to take a look at where us punters can profit from his talents. I want to know when to back the lad and when to avoid him. Is he better riding hurdlers or chasers? Who are the trainers that supply him with the most profitable ammo? What tracks does he know like the back of his hand and which ones does he still require his sat nav for?

Lets get started.

Trainers

In recent seasons it has been the Donald McCain, Gordon Elliott, Kim Bailey and Jim Old (although that avenue has not been used as much recently) stables that have supplied the majority of rides.

Donald McCain

Probable the most over bet of any Maguire/trainer combo but if we look hard enough we can dig out some interesting angles such as when the pair team up with chasers in handicaps over 24f or further -

96 rides | 22 winners | 23% S/R | +£26.72 LSP

Kim Bailey

The Bailey yard have had somewhat of a resurgence in recent weeks and Maguire has been an integral part of the process. Again it's the chasing angle that catch my eye and this time I'm looking at any Maguire/Bailey Chasers that start with an SP of 6/1 or less -

39 rides | 15 winners | 39% S/R | +£25.12 LSP

Inside this trend there is an even stronger one existing. If we look at only the Maguire/Bailey Chasers that start with an SP of 6/1 or less AND are having their first run for 150 days or more we get the following -

7 rides | 5 winners | 71% S/R | +£13.25 LSP

If Kim Bailey is confident he has one of his first time out chasers in prime condition then he wants Maguire on board! We would do well to keep our eyes peeled for these types in future.

Gordon Elliott

The Maguire/Elliott juggernaut is most productive at my local track Perth but that angle only really comes into play in the summer months. The angle I want to highlight today is when the 2 team up with chasers over 20f or further -

39 rides | 12 winners | 31% S/R | +£15.09

Tracks

AYR

Although not having as many rides at the track as you may expect AYR has been a happy hunting ground in recent seasons for the jockey -

31 rides | 11 winners | 36% S/R | +£1.27 LSP

The LSP isn't much to shout about but digging deeper into the stats provides us with an even more robust 'sub' angle.

Look at Maguire's record at Ayr when riding in non-handicap hurdle races -

10 rides | 6 winners | 60% S/R | +£ 3.85 LSP

The record is 8/10 (80% S/R) for top 3 finishes and 5 of the 6 winners have come for Donald McCain; quite an interesting little angle for us to put in the notebook.

UTTOXETER

The Staffordshire track shows clear profit for all of Maguire's rides in recent seasons -

210 rides | 40 winners | 19% S/R | +£24.23 LSP

We can improve the stats a tad more by looking at only his Hurdle runners -

113 rides | 22 winners | 20% S/R | +£34.92 LSP

Uttoxeter is definitely a place where we should look closely at Maguire's mounts.

HAYDOCK

Another track that shows clear profit on all of the jockeys rides -

94 rides | 22 winners | 23% S/R | +£24.79 LSP

Once more we can improve the stats to find a sweet spot.

If we only look at chasers at distances of 20f and further we get the following -

27 rides | 8 winners | 30% S/R | +£26.58 LSP

93 rides | 5 winners | 5% S/R | -£58.02 LSP

The Cheltenham & Aintree stats are particularly interesting now that he is likely to be riding higher class animals than he has at past meetings (in theory anyway). Will he be able to improve his track stats at this seasons Cheltenham and Aintree festivals?

Favourites

With Maguire, McCain & Elliott all on the up it's becoming more usual to see favourites ridden/trained by them. Is it profitable to follow these favourites and does Maguire have the knack of getting them home in front when the money is down?

Simply following all the favourites he rides would be an easy way to the poor house, however, dig a little deeper and we will find one group of favourites the jockey has an exceptional record with -

Favs in non-handicap hurdles when ridden by J Maguire

130 rides | 68 winners | 52% S/R | +£14.18 LSP

A 52% strike rate is phenomenal! When the money is down in the non-handicap hurdles Maguire certainly doesn't buckle under the weight of money!

Jason Maguire may not be able to get amongst McCoy and Johnson in the jockeys championship but he is certainly proving he has what it takes to become 'best of the rest'. If we keep our wits about us we can find plenty of angles to turn Maguire's talents into our own punting profits.

On-fire Maguire? I'd say so!

Ben (NTF)

Paul Townend: The New Ruby Walsh?

2011-01-03T20:33:00.000Z

When Ruby Walsh took his now obligatory November/December injury break (no pun intended!) it was a case of 'Who the hell is going to fill his shoes on Paul Nicholls high profile rides?'. Would it be A P McCoy ("but his style won't suit Kauto/Denman!") or would Sam Thomas step back into the picture ("but we all remember what happened last time he stepped in for Ruby!?"), would Paul Nicholls let Noel Fehily take on all major rides ("is he really good enough? Is his wrist healed enough?!?). Such was the press and punters obsession with this "dilemma" it more or less became its own little soap opera! However, Paul Nicholls wasn't the only high profile trainer to suffer from Ruby's untimely injury, Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins also relies on Mr Walsh for the majority of his stable stars. No such drama's on the Emerald Isle though. A simple phone call to a young jockey that is fast making a big name for himself over in Ireland, Paul Townend, and it was a case of "Ruby's out for a bit so let's just crack on with the job in hand, Paul you're up".

Described by some as "the best rider in Ireland", "the next big thing", "a future champion", "the natural successor to Tony McCoy & Ruby Walsh" and "more talented than Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy put together", 20 year old Townend has an army of admirers on both sides of the Irish Sea.

If I'm entirely honest these types of comments are not what I'm here for. When someone starts making a name for themselves and punters start latching on to their talents I want to stick them under the spotlight and have a dig about to see where I can profit from those skills. If I can highlight his sweet spots and negative zones then instead of simply sitting back and admiring the lad I can instead home in on some profitable angles.

Track angles

A quick look tells me that there are no obvious positive angles for Townend at any tracks. That's not to say he won't develop a strong bias at any track as his career progresses but at the moment it's his 'weak' tracks I want to concentrate on.

This first thing that strikes me is that he is yet to ride a winner over jumps outside of his native Ireland. So far he has had 36 rides over here but has failed to score with any of them.

P Townend rides outside of Ireland

36 rides / 0 wins / 0% S/R / -£36.00 LSP

Within that wider stat is his Cheltenham record which at the moment looks pretty dismal -

26 rides / 0 wins / 0% S/R / -£26.00 LSP

In his defence he is yet to sit on a really strong festival fancy at the festival itself but the fact he has only managed to get 2 of that 26 placed (both 3rd) is a slight concern.

The big question is will he get the chance to ride the likes of ZAIDPOUR or MIKAEL D'HAGUENET at this year's Cheltenham Festival?

3 other tracks that young Townend is yet to really get his eye at are -

Tipperary

23 rides / 1 win / 4% S/R / -£19.00 LSP

Sligo

21 rides / 1 win / 5% S/R / -£18.50 LSP

Listowel

35 rides / 2 wins / 6% S/R / -£17.00 LSP

Trainer

Willie Mullins is the trainer that supplies Townend with the majority of his mounts and the overall record when the 2 combine is pretty solid -

306 rides / 72 wins / 24% S/R / -£19.28 LSP

If we look at the rides Townend has taken for other yards we see a big dip in strike rate and LSP -

722 rides / 62 wins / 9% S/R / -£349.88 LSP

It should come as no real surprise that the young jockeys most potent firepower comes from the strongest yard in the country.

Starting Price (SP)

Now that punters are becoming familiar with the name Paul Townend we can expect a number of his rides to be starting at shorter prices than they maybe should be i.e. over bet. However, it looks like the value has not yet been completely squeezed out of the man from Co. Cork's rides. A quick look at the stats for his rides with an SP of 3/1 or under tells us he has an impressive S/R as well as turning a decent enough LSP when riding horses that are well fancied in the market -

189 rides / 77 wins / 41% S/R / +£21.67 LSP

Now if we apply the same rule to messrs McCoy & Walsh we will see just how well Townend stacks up on this score -

A P McCoy all rides with SP 3/1 or less

2174 rides / 800 wins / 37% S/R / -£231.80 LSP

R Walsh all rides with SP 3/1 or less

1895 rides / 722 wins / 38% S/R / -£155.12 LSP

Obviously McCoy & Walsh have a much larger volume of rides but the fact they make huge level stakes losses tell us that when they are on a 'fancied' ride punters have been significantly over reacting and sucking the value well and truley out of their mounts. Paul Townend is not yet at this stage and the fact he hits the target with a massive 41% of his 3/1 and under mounts AND still returns a level stakes profit makes this an angle of significant interest for us.

Favourites

Keeping with the short priced rides of Paul Townend it has also come to my attention that he has a phenomenal strike-rate when riding the favourite in non-handicap hurdle races -

P Townend favs in non-handicap hurdles

73 rides / 35 wins / 48% S/R / +£11.34 LSP

48% strike-rate is an extraordinary level to be performing at for one so young! Yes he has recently had the talent of such machines as Mourad & Hurricane Fly to steer home but a near 50% strike rate on favs is pretty special.

Again if we look at Walsh & McCoy we can see Mr Townend is more than keeping up with the 2 legends on this angle (he's actually ahead of them both!) -

A P McCoy favs in non-handicap hurdles

655 rides / 305 wins / 47% S/R / -£32.62 LSP

R Walsh favs in non-handicap hurdles

656 rides / 295 wins / 45% S/R / -£30.11 LSP

Volume of rides is obviously greater again but where as the profit in the McCoy & Walsh angle has been crushed there is potentially still profits to be made by following young Townend in these types of contests.

It's clear even at this relatively early stage of his career Paul Townend is indeed doing his best to match strides with the top clutch of jockeys that are currently in the saddle. He still has plenty of improvement yet to come and if he is to keep climbing to the top then he has to keep those strike-rates firing at the same consistent level. If we keep a track on the young lads stats then we will find angles where we can profit, however, if he if he does indeed keep rising to the top there will be a day all value will be crushed from his fancied mounts by the wider betting public. We just need to keep ahead of the game so we can recognise when that day comes....

I would like to leave you with this final thought -

Should Paul Townend keep the ride on current Champion Hurdle favourite Hurricane Fly in the big race itself the horse would not only have the Montjeu sire stat to overcome (0 wins from 42 at Cheltenham) he would also have an interesting jockey stat to overcome (0 wins from 26 at Cheltenham); a little something to ponder over me thinks.....

Ben (NTF)

NTF Xmas Quiz - The Answers

2010-12-23T15:38:00.000Z

Desert Orchid! Did you solve the puzzle?

Many thanks to all you that took part in the first ever NTF Xmas Quiz and a huge thanks to WBX.com for stepping in and stumping up a rather generous WINNER and RUNNER-UP prize.

Before we go any further here are our 2 lucky Free bet winners -

Winner & £20 FREE bet - MICHAEL DEANE

Runner-up & £10 FREE bet - LEE HEMMINGS

Congratulations guys and let's hope we get some racing sometime soon for you to spent the free bets on!!

A few of you have been asking for the answers so without further ado here they are -

Q1 - There are only 2 options on this Irish hotels functions menu?

(3rd letter of answer)

A1 - BEEF OR SALMON

Q2 - An 'impromptu' winner of the Whitbread Gold Cup?

(3rd letter of answer)

A2 - AD HOC

Q3 - He was a 'good friend' to have at Cheltenham?

(4th letter of answer)

A3 - BEST MATE

Q4 - Do it or you're dead!!

(2nd letter of answer)

A4 - COMPLY OR DIE

Q5 - Large Cash?

(2nd letter of answer)

A5 - BIG BUCKS

Q6 - If you don't have one of these when you pee then you should probably go and see the doctor! (Clue: Has won a Hennessy)

(1st letter of answer)

A6 - STRONG FLOW

Q7 - Someone whose job it is to give male chickens a lift?

(1st letter of answer)

A7 - ROOSTER BOOSTER

Q8 - This American gem found the hill a step too far in 3 Gold Cup's?

(4th letter of answer)

A8 - FLORIDA PEARL

Q9 - Courageous warrior from Peru?

(8th letter of answer)

A9 - BRAVE INCA

Q10 - A dreary Monastary?

(8th letter of answer)

A10 - GREY ABBEY

Q11 - This Pipe inmate was no 'fake outlaw'?

(11th letter of answer)

A11 - THE REAL BANDIT

Q12 - Australian Bushranger/folk hero that never got the chance to prove his Champion Hurdle credentials?

(3rd letter of answer)

A12 - NED KELLY

Once you had those 12 answers you were left with the following -

EHTOISRRCEDD

Which obviously spelt out -

DESERT ORCHID!

I hope you all enjoyed the first ever NTF Xmas Quiz and it at the very least kept you entertained whilst National Hunt racing is in the deep freeze!!

Ben (NTF)

NTF Xmas Quiz - Prize Fund Upgraded!!

2010-12-19T11:59:00.000Z

Large Cash now on offer if you can crack the quiz.......

Yes it's true! There is now even more reasons for you guys to take part in the NTF Xmas Quiz!

The guys at WBX.com have got right into the Xmas spirit and have kindly offered to sponsor the quiz.

The prize fund has leapt from a measly £5 FREE bet to the winner to a super generous £20 FREE bet to the winner AND £10 to the runner-up!! Now if that's not a Xmas bonus to get you motivated into tackling the teasers I set out for you yesterday then I don't know what is!!

This offer is open to new AND existing customers of WBX.com so there is absolutely no reason for anyone not to get involved.

Full details of the quiz and how to enter can be found in yesterdays Blog post.

If you want a little reminder of the questions then read on -

Q1 - There are only 2 options on this Irish hotels functions menu?

(3rd letter of answer)

Q2 - An 'impromptu' winner of the Whitbread Gold Cup?

(3rd letter of answer)

Q3 - He was a 'good friend' to have at Cheltenham?

(4th letter of answer)

Q4 - Do it or you're dead!!

(2nd letter of answer)

Q5 - Large Cash?

(2nd letter of answer)

Q6 - If you don't have one of these when you pee then you should probably go and see the doctor! (Clue: Has won a Hennessy)

(1st letter of answer)

Q7 - Someone whose job it is to give male chickens a lift?

(1st letter of answer)

Q8 - This American gem found the hill a step too far in 3 Gold Cup's?

(4th letter of answer)

Q9 - Courageous warrior from Peru?

(8th letter of answer)

Q10 - A dreary Monastary?

(8th letter of answer)

Q11 - This Pipe inmate was no 'fake outlaw'?

(11th letter of answer)

Q12 - Australian Bushranger/folk hero that never got the chance to prove his Champion Hurdle credentials?

(3rd letter of answer)

Remember full details of the quiz and how to enter can be found in yesterdays Blog post.

Best of luck and get your answer to me by Wednesday (22/12/10) for your chance to win that £20 FREE WBX.com bet.

Best of luck racing fans :)

Ben (NTF)

The NTF Xmas Quiz!

2010-12-18T16:12:00.000Z

Get your thinking caps on for the NTF Quiz....

With the National Hunt racing taking a battering from the elements at the moment it's time for me to spread some festive cheer with the 1st ever NTF Xmas Quiz!

It's important to keep those brain cells ticking in these sub-zero temps so get your thinking caps on and get stuck into the 12 posers I have set for you.

The winner of the quiz (drawn at random) will receive a free £5 bet for either the King George VI chase at Kempton or the Welsh National at Chepstow (choice is the winners). Should they fail to go ahead the bet will then be for any of the Cheltenham ante-post markets.

The quiz rules are easy. I have set out 12 questions below and all you need to do is answer them. Then from each answer you need to collect a letter (you will be told what letter) so at the end you have 12 letters. From those 12 letters you then need to spell out a name. The name you need to spell out is 1 of the following -

a famous racehorse
a famous jockey
a famous trainer

To make it slightly harder I'm not telling you what one it is!!

Once you have your answer you then need to email me at narrowingthefield_dosage@hotmail.co.uk with the subject header reading - NTF Xmas Quiz. All you need to put in the email itself is the 12 letter name that you think is the answer. Simple!

I'll give you an example question -

Example Q - If I used my 'English' keyboard to type this horse's name it would read QWERTYUIOP?

(5th letter of answer)

Example answer - AZERTYUIOP (you would take T for the final answer)

*In case anyone asks Azertyuiop was named because that's what the top line of a French keyboard reads.

OK? All clear? Good! Then lets begin the quiz proper.

p.s. All 12 answers are well(ish) known National Hunt racehorses from the past 10 or so years.

Q1 - There are only 2 options on this Irish hotels functions menu?

(3rd letter of answer)

Q2 - An 'impromptu' winner of the Whitbread Gold Cup?

(3rd letter of answer)

Q3 - He was a 'good friend' to have at Cheltenham?

(4th letter of answer)

Q4 - Do it or you're dead!!

(2nd letter of answer)

Q5 - Large Cash?

(2nd letter of answer)

Q6 - If you don't have one of these when you pee then you should probably go and see the doctor! (Clue: Has won a Hennessy)

(1st letter of answer)

Q7 - Someone whose job it is to give male chickens a lift?

(1st letter of answer)

Q8 - This American gem found the hill a step too far in 3 Gold Cup's?

(4th letter of answer)

Q9 - Courageous warrior from Peru?

(8th letter of answer)

Q10 - A dreary Monastary?

(8th letter of answer)

Q11 - This Pipe inmate was no 'fake outlaw'?

(11th letter of answer)

Q12 - Australian Bushranger/folk hero that never got the chance to prove his Champion Hurdle credentials?

(3rd letter of answer)

Answers must be with me by next Wednesday (22/12/10) and the winner will be announced on either the Thursday (23rd) or Friday (24th).

So get cracking and best of luck to you all!

Remember answers need to be sent here - narrowingthefield_dosage@hotmail.co.uk

Ben (NTF)

Kauto to buck the 'age old' trend?

2010-12-15T23:24:00.000Z

Kempton at Xmas has not been a happy hunting ground for the oldies in recent seasons......

Christmas is coming the Geese are getting fat

Kauto Star won't win the King George now what do you think of that!!

OK I don't completely believe that statement but I have uncovered one pretty comprehensive stat that the mighty 'King of Kempton' will have to overcome if he is to land his record breaking FIFTH King George VI title -

In the last 4 seasons no horse aged older than 9 has won ANY race at Kempton's two day Xmas meeting!

Wow! Now I checked and doubled checked and this is a true fact. I've even put it in table format just to make sure it's correct -

26 runners aged 10 or older have run at Kempton's Xmas meeting in the last 4 seasons and 0 have managed to win!

To highlight even more how much they have been struggling only 2 of that 26 have even managed to run into a place!

Since Dessie won the last of his King George titles at the age of 11 in 1990 only one other horse aged older than 9 has won the race; good old Edredon Bleu, aged 11 in 2003.

Obviously Kauto is no ordinary horse and I'm not for one second saying we should be against him because of one stat but recently the older horses have been struggling over the Xmas period at Kempton and at the age of 10 Kauto Star does now fit into that category.

Kauto better remember to pop those Cod Liver Oil tablets so his joints are supple enough to fend off the young guns on Boxing Day.......

p.s. The stat also applies to Ollie Magern but I think he has more than just the age stat against him!!

On a sadder note I'd like to pass on my condolences to connections of both TWIST MAGIC and GILSLAND who sadly passed away whilst giving their all on the racetrack yesterday. R.I.P lads, gone but not forgotten.....

Go on Twisty!!

Ben (NTF)