Copper Horse Handicap Betting Tips

Copper Horse Handicap Betting Tips

Another staying handicap on day one, another £100,000 in the prize fund and another Willie Mullins hot pot dominates the betting market.

This time, we’re looking at the Copper Horse which is run over a mile and six furlongs. While Mullins is doubly represented on our shortlist, the Flat trainers have a bigger shout this time in which is a thoroughly intriguing close to the first day of action.

Main Contenders

Absurde

The apparent second string for Willie Mullins is Absurde, though he sits at second place in the market and has Frankie Dettori on board meaning there is absolutely bound to be money for him.

Fit from the jumps having made his debut for this stable recently, Absurde reached a good level on the Flat in France and has been given a mark of 101 for this race. He could outrun 101, but it’s no given on this ground and in this company.

Chillingham

Punters have a bit of thinking to do regarding Chillingham. On the one hand, he is improving hand over fist for the excellent Ed Bethell and he could be overpriced and undervalued.

We always like that of course from a betting point of view and it would appear that after his comeback win at Thirsk in April that he’s been laid out for this race.

On the downside, he took big steps forward when running on Tapeta and on soft ground on the turf, so it remains to be seen how well he can go on a faster surface now which is the question punters have to ask themselves.

Gaassee

Sheikh Ahmed, William Haggas, Tom Marquand. That’s a combo you really want for major Flat handicaps in the summer, surely?

Their Gaassee would be unlikely to have been sent for this if not ready. There are doubts though, as he went backwards from the Ebor on and has been gelded.

If his comeback run has now put him spot-on, then he has a major shout be that’s not something we can know for sure so a chance would need to be taken if you back him to win.

Postileo

Now a six-year-old, the familiar and popular Postileo remains lightly raced and could be finding a new lease of life having been gelded after his long break from the course.

He returned with a win at Hamilton and, while some fay fear the ‘bounce’ factor which we don’t, there is little evidence of him being at his best when the ground is particularly quick.

Ruling Dynasty

Godolphin could be on for a good opening day and not just in the Group races. Their Ruling Dynasty is an attractive, lightly-raced four-year-old who looks like he may be very dangerously handicapped indeed.

Second on debut last April, he wasn’t seen again for a while. He returned having been gelded to win very easily in a Newcastle novice in October and was then given more time off.

He won ever so easily at Haydock most recently, really dominating under James Doyle, running to a mark of around 100 on our books and with some ease.

His official rating of 97 therefore already underestimates him in our view, while we don’t know what he could have achieved had he needed to pull more out last time and further improvement is almost guaranteed. Huge chance.

Vauban

This is a real talking horse. Willie Mullins’ runner won at last year’s Cheltenham Festival before talk of a bid for the Melbourne Cup.

He hasn’t been seen on the Flat in fact since then, but he has been given a mark of 101 for this race which purely on the numbers is lenient.

Based on Mullins’ past Ascot winners, there is around a 43lb difference between them from the jumps to the Flat. This horse is consistent at around the 160 mark in jumps races, meaning he could achieve 117 on the level which would make him look unbeatable.

It’s rarely that simple of course and conditions are very different for him here.

Summary

On the basic numbers, most handicappers we reckon will think Vauban is a good thing here.

For his part, he does look miles clear of the assessors but a) he is not the only one in the contest and b) his best work has all been done on much softer surfaces.

RULING DYNASTY represents another top yard in Charlie Appleby’s and he knows exactly how to qualify these horses for Royal Ascot handicaps with three runs. We have seen nothing like this horse’s true ability yet so he looks to be the best treated horse in the race.

Furthermore, because of the presence of the Mullins runners, bookies are getting just a little bit carried away and had this been at a different meeting they would take no chances with Ruling Dynasty and he’d be going off favourite.


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